Intrade still has Obama at 72.5% to win the nomination ...

[Steeler1623]

http://www.intrade.com

Intrade is the best place I know to turn to for a "reality check" regarding the current status of the race. When people are putting their money on the line, you know they aren't trying to spin a particular position. You also know that anyone who trades on political news is much more informed and saavy than the typical person.

I think Intrade's evaluation of the situation is just about right. Obama was at 85% before Ohio-Texas, and I thought that was a good estimate. I think 72.5% is a fair estimate as well considering recent events, which helped Hillary but weren't all that unexpected a development, considering she was up by 22 and 15 points respectively in Ohio and TX a month ago.

It's interesting that there's apparently a half percent allocated to neither candidate- maybe that's for the "Al Gore on the second ballot" scenario.

[thevoiceofreason]

1. And that number will go up Sunday, and again on Wednesday

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

2. Making book, I just read a fascinating piece on the trading activity during the 2004 election.

They had Bush at O% to win a second term, at one point, LOL.

[jakem]

3. wow. you can get a good return on a 0% odds....