Ohio Does Its Magic: Hillary’s 3% Exit Poll Margin Morphs to 10% in the Vote ( TIA )

[tiptoe]

Ohio Does Its Magic: Hillary’s 3% Exit Poll Margin Morphs to 10% in the Vote

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OhioOldReliable.htm

Ohio just did for HRC what it did for Bush in 2004. Bush's Ohio vote share exceeded his "pristine" exit poll share by 5.4%.
Clinton's 2-party vote share exceeded her unadjusted (9pm) exit poll share by 3.6%   (55.2 – 51.6%).

Clinton won the 2-party vote by a 10.6% margin  (55.3 – 44.7%).  But her unadjusted exit poll margin was just 3.4%  (51.7 – 48.3%).
As is always the case, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count.
For comparison, the Unadjusted and Final Exit polls are provided below.

The final Zogby Ohio pre-election poll had the race dead even. The poll was confirmed by the unadjusted exit poll, just as it was in New Hampshire and in 2004 in the battleground states. John Zogby must be one awfully frustrated pollster. Since 2000, election fraud has consistently skewed his projections. But he never mentions the F-word.

It should be obvious by now to anyone who has analyzed pre- and post-election polling data since 2000 that primaries and general elections have been silently screaming election fraud. But the main stream media and the politicians keep blinders on the public while catapulting the misinformation that the pre and post-election polls are wrong and the vote count is correct. They never mention the probability of election fraud as the root cause of the polling discrepancies. Like 9/11, election fraud is a” third-rail” subject not to be openly discussed, much less investigated by the media.

Tommy Heinrich was a NY Yankee baseball player who played right field with Joe DiMaggio in center. His nickname was "Old Reliable" because he could always be counted on to deliver in the "clutch". Ohio is "Old Reliable" for the Republicans. It will deliver its phantom votes in the clutch for John McCain just like Diebold's CEO and Secretary of State Blackwell delivered them for Bush in 2004.

Stalin said it: It's not who votes. It's who counts.

      Clinton  Obama   Margin
Vote   55.23   44.77    10.46
EPoll  51.65   48.35     3.30

Shift   3.58   -3.58     7.16

The probability that the 3.6% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4,436 (assuming a 2% exit poll margin of error).
Assuming a 3% MoE, the probability of the shift is 1 in 103.

Calculate the probability of a 3.58% 2-party shift from the unadjusted exit poll to the vote.
Assume a 2-3% margin of error (MoE) range.

Use the Excel normal distribution function:
Probability = Normdist (0.5165, 0.5523, MoE/1.96, true)

MoE        Prob      1-in-
2.0%      0.02%    4,436
2.2%      0.07%    1,403
2.4%      0.17%      578
2.6%      0.35%      287
2.8%      0.61%      164
3.0%      0.97%      103


Ohio Primary
March 04, 2008
1612 Respondents


                Final Exit Poll             9pm Exit poll   
              Mix  Clinton Obama          Mix  Clinton Obama
Gender
Male          41%    50%    48%           41%    47%    52%
Female        59%    57%    41%           59%    54%    45%
Total               54.1%  43.9%                51.1%  47.9%



Education
No College    62%    58%    40%           63%    55%    44%
College Grad  38%    47%    51%           37%    44%    55%
Total               53.8%  44.2%                50.9%  48.1%



Education
No H.S.        5%    N/A    N/A            5%    N/A    N/A
H.S. Grad     25%    65%    33%           25%    63%    36%
College       32%    52%    47%           33%    49%    51%
College Grad  22%    50%    50%           22%    45%    55%
Post Grad     16%    42%    53%           15%    42%    56%
Total               50.6%  42.8%                48.1%  46.3%



Region
Cuyahoga      17%    47%    52%           15%    41%    59%
Northeast     30%    61%    37%           35%    61%    39%
Central       22%    55%    42%           21%    48%    51%
Northwest     10%    54%    43%           11%    44%    55%
Southwest     21%    49%    51%           18%    49%    51%
Total               54.1%  44.2%                51.2%  48.4%



Income
Under 100k    81%    54%    44%           82%    51%    48%
100k +        19%    50%    50%           18%    46%    54%
Total               53.2%  45.1%                50.1%  49.1%



Under 50k     44%    56%    42%           44%    53%    46%
$50k +        56%    52%    47%           56%    49%    51%
Total               53.8%  44.8%                50.8%  48.8%



Income
0- 15k         8%    50%    49%            8%    47%    52%
15-30k        15%    60%    36%           15%    58%    41%
30-50k        21%    55%    43%           21%    51%    48%
50-75k        23%    55%    45%           23%    51%    49%
75-100k       15%    50%    47%           15%    49%    50%
100-150k      11%    55%    45%           11%    51%    49%
150-200k       4%    N/A    N/A            3%    N/A    N/A
200k +         4%    N/A    N/A            4%    N/A    N/A
Total               50.8%  40.7%                 48%    45%



Party ID
Democrat      69%    56%    42%           69%    53%    46%
Republican     9%    49%    49%            9%    45%    55%
Independent   22%    48%    50%           22%    46%    54%
Total.              53.6%  44.4%                50.7%  48.6%



Ideology
Liberal       40%    53%    46%           41%    49%    50%
Moderate      46%    56%    42%           46%    53%    46%
Conservative  14%    48%    48%           13%    46%    53%
Total               53.7%  44.4%                50.5%  48.6%

                Final Exit Poll             9pm Exit poll   
              Mix  Clinton Obama          Mix  Clinton Obama



Race
White         76%    64%    34%           75%    61%    38%
African-Amer  18%    13%    87%           19%    11%    89%
Latino         4%    N/A    N/A            4%    N/A    N/A
Asian          1%    N/A    N/A            1%    N/A    N/A
Other          1%    N/A    N/A            1%    N/A    N/A
Total               51.0%  41.5%                47.8%  45.4%



Religion
Protestant    56%    55%    43%           56%    52%    48%
Catholic      23%    63%    36%           22%    59%    40%
Jewish         2%    N/A    N/A            2%    N/A    N/A
Other          7%    N/A    N/A            7%    N/A    N/A
None          13%    45%    52%           13%    43%    55%
Total               51.1%  39.1%                47.7%  42.8%



Sex and Race
White Men     32%    58%    39%           32%    55%    44%
White Women   44%    67%    31%           44%    66%    34%
Black Men      7%    15%    85%            7%    13%    87%
Black Women   11%    12%    88%           11%     9%    91%
Latino Men     1%    N/A    N/A            1%    N/A    N/A
Latino Wom     2%    N/A    N/A            2%    N/A    N/A
All Other      2%    N/A    N/A            2%    N/A    N/A
Total               50.4%  41.8%                48.5%  45.1%



Size of Community
Urban         26%    44%    55%           27%    39%    60%
Suburban      63%    56%    42%           64%    54%    46%
Rural         10%    70%    26%           10%    67%    32%
Total               53.7%   43.4%               51.8%  48.8%



When Did You Decide Your Vote?
Today         12%    54%    43%           11%    52%    46%
Last3 Days     9%    63%    37%           10%    59%    41%
Last Week      9%    54%    43%            9%    51%    48%
Last Month    23%    46%    54%           24%    42%    58%
Before        46%    57%    41%           46%    54%    45%
Total               53.8%  43.6%                51.1%  48.1%



Which Candidate Attacked Unfairly?
HRC           24%     8%    91%           26%     7%    93%
Obama          8%    92%     8%            8%    91%     9%
Both          29%    68%    29%           28%    66%    33%
None          35%    67%    32%           34%    65%    34%
Total               52.5%  42.1%                49.7%  45.7%




                Final Exit Poll             9pm Exit poll   
              Mix  Clinton Obama          Mix  Clinton Obama



Age 
17-29         16%    35%    61%           16%    32%    67%
30-44         28%    50%    50%           28%    46%    54%
45-59         33%    57%    42%           34%    54%    45%
60+           23%    69%    28%           23%    67%    31%
Total               54.3%  44.1%                51.8%  48.3%



Age 
17-24          7%    29%    70%            7%    24%    75%
25-29          8%    41%    54%            8%    38%    60%
30-39         17%    49%    51%           17%    45%    55%
40-49         21%    52%    48%           22%    48%    52%
50-64         32%    60%    37%           32%    58%    40%
65+           14%    72%    26%           13%    70%    29%
Total               53.8%  43.5%                50.6%  47.4%



Were Debates Important to Your Vote?
Yes           73%    52%    47%           74%    49%    51%
No            18%    55%    38%           18%    54%    43%
Total               47.9%  41.2%                46.0%  45.5%



More Qualified to be Commander in Chief?
HRC           60%    87%    11%           57%    86%    13%
Obama         37%     3%    97%           40%     3%    97%
Total               53.3%  42.5%                50.2%  46.2%



Was Gender of Candidate Important to You?
Yes           17%    60%    40%           17%    57%    43%
No            82%    53%    45%           82%    50%    49%
Total               53.7%  43.7%                50.7%  47.5%



Most Important Issue
Economy       59%    55%    43%           58%    52%    47%
Iraq          19%    49%    50%           19%    47%    53%
Health Care   19%    56%    42%           19%    52%    47%
Total               52.4%  42.9%                49.0%  46.3%

[Captain Hilts]

1. It's not 'hip' to vote for Hil. Never has been, so she's always had more votes than polling pts. nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. This is a great example of a lot of nothing.

[theHandpuppet]

3. And of course we all know...

... that in all the other states the exit polls exactly mirrored the actual vote count.

:eyes:

[Metric System]

4. Obama wins, it's the will of the people. Hillary wins, it's stolen.

[pampango]

14. It's the latest version of "Bush wins, it's stolen. If Kerry wins, it's the will of the people."

We're all guilty of it at times. Sometimes we believe what we really, really want to believe. :)

[EFerrari]

34. Except there's a mountain of evidence that says Kerry won.

We may be guilty of considering evidence.

[ExtraGriz]

5. people lied?

the horror of it all.

[DemBones DemBones]

6. Another possibility is that people

are reluctant to admit they didn't vote for the black man, lest they be accused of being "racist."

So they say they voted for Obama, though they actually voted for Clinton.

If exit pollers ever came to my precinct, I'd probably lie to them just on general principles because I don't think exit poll results should be used while the election is still going on, nor do I think they should be used to "prove" election fraud since voters can so easily lie about how they voted. I do think election fraud occurs but the GOP owns the voting machines.


Some people have the quaint idea that their vote is a private matter.

I was actually taught that in school.

[bluestateguy]

7. Sampling problems

Sometimes the supporters of one candidate are more eager to answer exit polls than supporters of the other candidate. That may have been the case in 2004 as well.

[dailykoff]

8. Curious isn't it?

Just like New Hampshire. Soon EMR experts on CNN will start jawing about the "Hillary effect."

[OzarkDem]

9. Its Zogby, the Walmart of pollsters

You get what you pay for.

[Peace Patriot]

10. Thanks for the info!

The dopes here who don't think this is important (or don't understand it), are going to be shocked, SHOCKED, when their candidate (if she gets the nomination) mysteriously loses to a Bushite in November, against all inferential evidence--which is really all you have in a vote counting system run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

Then, maybe, after three straight Diebolded elections (yeah, including the one that produced a Congress that re-funded and escalated the war on Iraq, in the teeth of SEVENTY PERCENT opposition to it by the American people), we will get Democratic Party support for TRANSPARENT vote counting, the most fundamental condition of democracy.

And then, maybe, some day--after we start electing real representatives of the people--we'll get our country back.

[JohnyCanuck]

11. Of course if evil-doing "dictator of the month",

Hugo Chavez, won an election after the exit polling showed he was loosing, you can bet that the asshat chimp in chief and his neocon, media asskissers, mouthpieces and facilitators would be braying over the airwaves non-stop about how Chavez was caught red handed fixing elections.

[foo_bar]

16. that's actually what happened, except the exit polls were more corruptible

A U.S. pollster whose firm wrongly predicted President Hugo Chavez would lose a recall referendum on Thursday defended the exit poll, which has landed in the center of a national controversy.

The poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates has become such a hot issue because the opposition, which spent more than a year mounting the drive to force Chavez from office, insists it shows the results from Sunday's referendum itself were fraudulent.

Former President Jimmy Carter and the secretary-general of the Organization of American States, Cesar Gaviria, both monitored the vote and endorsed the referendum results.

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/20/Worldandnation/American_backs_his_Ve.shtml

To answer that question, we must go back to August 15, 2004. That was the day of the referendum to decide whether Chávez should be thrown out of office midway through his presidential term. Whilst voting was still taking place, a New York-based firm called Penn, Schoen & Berland produced an exit poll which claimed that Chavez had lost by 18 points. The opposition went wild and declared victory. When the actual result was announced — Chavez had won by 18 points in an internationally certified free and fair election — the opposition claimed fraud, citing as evidence this exit poll.

Penn, Schoen & Berland say that their exit polls have a margin of error of under +/- 1%. So how could they have been off by a margin of 36 percentage points? Simple. They had subcontracted the conduct of the poll to a US government funded, anti-Chavez group called Sumate, whose leader participated in the 2002 coup. The poll was entirely bogus, but it served the purpose of casting a shadow over the democratic credentials of the Chavez presidency and the left in general.

http://www.greenleft.org.au/2006/692/35996

In conclusion, the evidence gleamed from the press releases from PS&B and Súmate as well as anecdotal evidence all point towards some serious problems in this exit poll. Some of the problems are beyond repair at this point (e.g. poor quality fieldwork by the interviewers), while others can be used to address academic investigations (e.g. re-weighting the data). There is a lot less than meets the eye here, and it seemed absurd to hold this exit poll up as the standard of truth versus an audited vote count.

http://www.zonalatina.com/Zldata373.htm

[OnTheOtherHand]

18. and it is striking what DIDN'T happen

I have to admit, I actually never thought of this before. I know that the Bush administration didn't actually make a big deal about the exit polls even in Ukraine 2004, so it never occurred to me to point out that it didn't make a big deal about this exit poll in Venezuela either. Which was wise: that would not have been a winning argument.

[dansolo]

38. Notice who the pollster was

More evidence about whose side Hillary's campaign is on.

[Kurovski]

12. K&R.

I hope TIA's health is good these days.

[AtomicKitten]

13. There's those magical election numbers again!

I just never figured it would start in the primary. :(

[Recursion]

15. How well do Obama's numbers match the exit polls in states he won?

Not a leading question; I don't know.

[OnTheOtherHand]

17. it varies

In CT (which was actually close), the initial exit poll tab was close to the final official returns; in IL, the exit poll tab showed Obama doing about 6 points better on the margin.

On Super Tuesday, the initial exit poll tabs showed AZ, MA, and NJ all very close; they weren't. But in all three of these states, pre-election polling indicated that they wouldn't be.

For that matter, in Ohio, the last eight polls averaged an 8-point lead for Clinton. TIA cherry-picked the one he liked.

So, for people who actually want to know whether the exit polls were accurate, there is reason to think they weren't. But TIA has never been big on following evidence wherever it leads.

[tiptoe]

33. Super Tuesday: Strange Obama-to-Clinton Exit Poll Shift / Beyond Reasonable Doubt: NH Primary rigged

Super Tuesday: Strange Obama to Clinton Exit Poll Shift

Beyond Reasonable Doubt: The New Hampshire primary was rigged

[OnTheOtherHand]

43. did it ever occur to you

that it would be more socially usefully for you to help TIA to improve his work, instead of uncritically linking to it?

Whatever.

[dailykoff]

44. I think it's pretty good as it stands.

Too bad more people don't get to see it.

[OnTheOtherHand]

46. so far, in almost three years at DU...

I can count the number of people who think they understand TIA's posts well enough to argue his side on my... palms? Simply put, I don't think anyone believes this stuff, (ETA: if belief entails the ability to argue for one's position).

Just one point here: Election Defense Alliance retracted its claim about the "exactly opposite" percentages in New Hampshire a few days after making it, because it was demonstrably wrong. That annihilates TIA's article about New Hampshire. Does he live in a hole or something?

[backscatter712]

19. My GOD! Election fraud in Ohio is unprecedented!

Scratch that, wait, in fact, it is precedented...

[jgraz]

20. What possible motivation could the Rethugs have for wanting Hillary as the nominee?

:eyes:

K&R&Bookmarked.

[Zynx]

24. Democrats control the state machinery in Ohio now.

Unless you believe they are in on it too.

[jgraz]

26. Really? In the red counties the Democrats are in control?

That's not what I heard, but I could be wrong.

[roseBudd]

29. A high percentage of people dislike her, she motivates their dispirited base, clenis hatred

inflames the religious right, the religious right believes a woman's role is subservience, etc

[dailykoff]

31. You're joking right?

Tell me you are.

[jgraz]

42. Almost always.

The rolly :eyes: was the tell.

[Tuesday_Morning]

21. K & R

[formercia]

22. Ohio, Bush Homeland

Bush family roots run long and deep in Ohio. is it no wonder that they also control the political machine there?

[Zynx]

23. You know there is the possibility of sampling error in exit polling too.

I don't know why people don't understand this. I don't even believe in the 2004 vote fraud so I'm not going to believe in this. TIA's analysis was total garbage back then and it is now. He's always used bizarre assumptions.

[OnTheOtherHand]

28. hello, fellow TIA admirer ;)

This sample is so small that we can't distinguish between random sampling error and bias -- but based on other results, I would expect some bias.

[Life Long Dem]

25. I remember MSNBC saying that the percentage gap between both would close up

There was about a 14% difference and Chuck Todd was saying the big cities hadn't begun to even count yet and should close up this gap quite a bit. The thing is this never happened and nobody said a word. I myself had some suspicion because Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland which they were waiting on before calling this never did close up the gap.

[OnTheOtherHand]

27. sure it happened

The final margin was about 10 points.

They couldn't predict how much it would narrow because, for a long while, they didn't have any votes to extrapolate from.

You can look at the returns from the big-city counties right now and see how the percentages look with and without them.

[Zynx]

30. Cuyahoga County barely delivered any margin at all to Obama.

Franklin and Hamilton Counties came in pretty big for him, but that was pretty much it.

[TheDeathadder]

32. You lost Ohio - a major swing state by 10%

deal with it. Good god how so many Obama people ever had the nerve to call Clinton people crybabies and whiners when all I hear is crybabies about Ohio, whiners about SNL, and that non-stop "SAVE OBAMA - STOP THE PRIMARY!!" threads. The only time you guys seem to stop crying is to high five each other for a Wyoming Caucus where like 6000 people voted in a state that has almost zero democrats.

Grab a tissue and get over it...you lost Ohio fair and square.

[EFerrari]

35. You've never been to Ohio, have you? n/t

[TheDeathadder]

36. sure have - sorry

[EFerrari]

37. Then your wealth of experience should tell you

that Ohio's elections are corrupt as hell.

And if your experience doesn't tell you that, you might want to attend to Mr. Conyers, the GAO, and the horde of researchers that have published on the topic. LinkTv, fyi, is running their documentary tomorrow afternoon, 3pm Pacific time.

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=election+fraud+Ohio&fr=yfp-t-501&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8

[TheDeathadder]

39. oh well there it is

Clinton didn't win by 10% and Obama actually won the race and is the greatest human alive. Glad you stepped up to the plate and showed that Ohio is a corrupt state and shouldn't be trusted or counted.

[EFerrari]

40. That's what you do with fact. That's your problem. n/t

[TheDeathadder]

41. oh well there it is

that's what I do with facts. that's my problem. I'm sorry.

[tiptoe]

45. Well, heck, I'll kick it. nt

[tiptoe]

47. ...and kick it again, for those who may be trying to enjoy a weekend away from their computers. nt