If Obama wins Mississippi 65-35, will HRC bow out?

[thevoiceofreason]

She should, because that margin would demonstrate a substantial erosion of her "base" that could not be explained otherwise.

Notice how we Obamaniacs keep trying to bring the metric into an emperical basis?

[XemaSab]

1. Oh noes! Numbers!

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[ristruck]

6. ROTFLMAO

The posts tonight very very funny. And what in her recent behavior gives you the faintest hope that she would do such a thing?

[hueyshort]

8. The Core Dems would be Pissed if she "bowed out" because a Red State

that's going for McCain picked Obama.

[hueyshort]

29. How much does Obama Pay you to Pump out this crap?

Whatever it is, he's paying too much.

[XemaSab]

30. Way to respond to your own BS

:thumbsup:

[Usrename]

94. lol

all your responses are belong to us!!!

:rofl:

[JTFrog]

67. You tell us. What's a couple hundred posts a week pay these days? n/t

[lapfog_1]

61. "Core Dems"

Core Dems are headed for a meltdown... a real China Syndrome.

Core Dem == anyone supporting Hillary (a DLC Zellout, btw).

So... can I call all of the House and Senate members I've supported with my hard earned money and ask for it back? What about the money I sent to Mr. Gore and Mr. Kerry?

You know, because I'm not a Core Dem now.

(how have I possibly missed you on my sweeps of GDP looking for "ignore" stragglers???)

[XemaSab]

28. Oh, I think she's in it for the long haul

The superdelegates at the convention are her new "firewall."

[SoCalDem]

45. There's an "H" in math so it's all hers

It's the new rule

[BringBigDogBack]

93. lol

[scheming daemons]

2. No.... Mississippi is a red state that doesn't matter.... get with the program..

...

[SoCalDem]

46. an unimportant little state.. doesn't matter at all

[VotesForWomen]

60. well, it will be contributing 0 electoral votes in november to the dem nominee, so draw your conclus

conclusions about how much it matters.

[SoCalDem]

63. It matters NOW..to both of them

[Jawja]

80. I respectfully disagree.

I think Obama put's the Southern "red" States into play for the GE. I believe he can win Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi - perhaps South Carolina, Louisiana as well.

With Clinton as the nominee, they will be bright RED once again.

[Lucinda]

3. Nobody is going anywhere until PA votes

[amborin]

70. Hillary will win Penn big time...and the nomination

[AZBlue]

103. How so?

[burythehatchet]

83. INside word is that Puerto Rico is the firewall. n/t

[HughMoran]

4. "Mississippi Primary Unlikely to Boost Obama Significantly"

Mississippi Primary Unlikely to Boost Obama Significantly
Even a big win won't provide much more distance between him and Clinton
By Kenneth T. Walsh
Posted March 10, 2008


If the conventional wisdom is correct, Barack Obama will be celebrating another victory in a southern primary Tuesday night.

Obama leads Hillary Clinton in Mississippi's Democratic presidential contest by 58 percent to 34 percent, according to the latest American Research Group survey of likely voters. If he wins solidly, as expected, Obama will collect a majority of the 33 delegates at stake, but Clinton will garner a healthy share because the delegate allocation will be proportional, not winner take all.

So the pattern of the Democratic race won't change, with neither candidate able to mount a decisive surge week to week. Obama had 1,578 delegates to Clinton's 1,468 on Monday, according to the Associated Press. It will take 2,025 to win the nomination.

...

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/03/10/mississippi-primary-unlikely-to-boost-obama-significantly.html

[Mz Pip]

9. That may be true

but it becomes one less state in the ever shortening list of states that have yet to vote. Clinton has already run out of states. There aren't enough left for her to regain a lead.

[HughMoran]

19. Too bad the silly system relies on Superdelegates to put one candidate over the top

... in the case of a tie or even a close race as we have here.

[Gore1FL]

50. If it provides a 3 delegate pickup

It'll average twice as many delegates per states as the per-state average Hillary pickup of last week's 4 states. If it provides 4, MS and WY will wipe all delegate gains from last Tuesday.

Losing by a small number of delegates may not seem significant. Losing the opportunity to close a huge delegate gap (much less falling behind) by taking 502 of the remaining 1195 pledged delegates available before last Tuesday is not the sign of a successful strategy.

[Window]

77. Yep.

[JimGinPA]

5. I Wish. I'm Afraid She'll Have To Be Physically Dragged Off Of The Convention Floor When She Loses

:crazy:

[hueyshort]

10. Um, I hear Obama supporters say they will riot when he loses

which pushes about everybody except his latte crowd toward Hillary.

[catgirl]

18. Why are you here?

I keep reading flame posts from you.

[sniffa]

72. He's just trying to see how long he can go

before being rebanned.

[John Q. Citizen]

23. I heard you are a freeper, but I'm not sure if it's true or if it's just peoples perception of you.

[pampango]

74. As Forrest Gump would say, "Freeper is as freeper does".

:)

[JVS]

26. Don't make us throw Zinoviev Lattes at you!

[Leopolds Ghost]

102. It's the whole Molotov Cocktail crowd around lunchtime n/t

[gtar100]

38. Just what do you have against latte's and the people who drink them?

I had one this morning and was thinking happy thoughts of Hillary at the time. Is there a more acceptable drink for the Hillary crowd?

[cali]

65. I hear that hill supporters will riot and

and rampage and kill. Anyone can say they hear anything. Anyway, I hear that the Clintons will blackmail SDs to get the nomination.

[rodeodance]

75. ha ha--he can keep that latte crowd

[Window]

78. Um, I hear you're full of shit.

[Orangepeel]

7. Probably not. But he won't win by that much. Polls say about 14%.

If he wins PA, she'd probably bow out. But it is unlikely he'll do that, too.

[apocalypsehow]

11. First rule of HRC club: states that HRC doesn't win don't count.

n/t.

[kennetha]

12. Don't Count on Obama Winning Many Delegates!

Here's a prediction, whatever the popular vote margin, Clinton will win nearly as many delegates tomorrow in Mississippi. Why? Because of gerrymandered congressional districts and an overwhelming preference for Hillary white voters in Mississippi. Mississippi will be like Alabama, where Obama won by 80k votes and 14% but netted all of two delegates. That's because of the way Southern congressional districts are drawn. First the dems put blacks in highly gerrymandered districts in order to enable the election of AA representatives. WHen the Repugs siezed power they realize that this arrangement help dilute AA strength state-wide.

IF Barack piles up black votes in gerrymandered districts, it puts a cap on how many delegates he can possibly win. I think several polls have Hillary when 60+ % of the white vote to Barack's less than 30%. Assuming gerrymandering, that means that Hillary will win lots of delegates in predominately white districts.

Add to that, that apparently the Repug in Mississippi are distributing flyers urging Repugs to cross over and vote Hillary. THey clearly want to keep this internecine struggle going as long as possible. (Though I think they are silly to want to. It generates more and more interest among dems, mobilizes more and more of our voters. Since we're the OUT party, not the IN party, that can't be a bad thing. It's not like Kennedy trying to take the nomination from Carter in 80 or Reagan trying take it from Ford in 76. Those divided the IN party. We're mobilizing and energizing the OUT party.)

[MS Liberal]

20. Hope You Are Correct

I am voting for Hillary tomorrow.

[cali]

69. Why are so many hilly supporters unable to see the flip

side of this equation? Gerrymandered districts or no, In PA hilly is unlikely to pick up more than a few more delegates than Obama if she wins by 10 pts or so. Just as in OH, she only picked up a handful more. It's next to impossible for her to wind up at the convention less than 100 delegates behind Obama. And if Obama wins big in MS today, he adds to his popular vote total as well, making it even harder for her to catch up.

[annie1]

13. She'll get shut out in MS b/c 50% of dem voters there are black and that vote...

goes 80% to the first viable black candidate for president. oh yeah, she should bow out. ok.

[kennetha]

32. Looks like it's going to be purely racial voting

Whites favor Hillary 65% to 24% with 11% undecided. Blacks favor 75% to 16% with 8% undecided. Of course, blacks make up a much higher % of the democratic electorate in Mississippi. So Barack will carry the stae. But if the districts are racially gerrymandered Hillary will rack up her share of the delegates.

[annie1]

33. oh. :(. i HATE gerrymandering. DESPISE. so i won't even be happy...

that it helps her. DESPISE.

[kennetha]

35. Agreed

I've been trying to find data on the racial composition on Mississippi Congressional districts. So far, I've discovered something I vaguely remembered. THere was a big Supreme Court case in 2002 about the drawing of districts in Mississippi in which the Bush Administration was urging the court to step in and redraw the districts thad had been drawn either by the legislature or perhaps the district court. Just found a boatload of articles which I haven't read through yet. It was a big deal at the time.

[democrattotheend]

14. He's not going to win by that much

Not with the vote that racially polarized and the prospect of GOP crossovers. I am guessing a 15 points spread, maybe less.

[kennetha]

15. RIght

Plus he won't net that many delegates, at least if my understanding that Mississippi is as gerrymandered as Alabama is.

[TheFarseer]

16. Are you flipping crazy?

She'll get pounded 65-35 and lose a net of 3 delegate because of our retarded proportion system. The media will probably try to spin that as a win for her because he's supposed to win all the "black states"

[juajen]

17. Hell no, she won't go!

There are two states that need to go in her column with no more discussion. That will change things, and she is surely keeping obama down to a certain amount of delegates even in states where he is expected to win heavily. Wyoming for instance?

[Drunken Irishman]

21. It's tough to get a blowout in delegates when only 12 are up for grabs.

If Obama wins Mississippi by the same amount as he won Wyoming, he'll net about 10 more delegates than her.

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. She probably won't win North Carolina.

And even assuming a win in Pennsylvania, the margins probably won't be enough to significantly offset Obama's lead in terms of delegates gained or popular vote.

Those are the only two major delegate prizes left; after that, Clinton may do well in KY, WV, and a few other states; Obama is likely to notch victories in South Dakota, Oregon, and Indiana that would offset any gains by Clinton.

And 'two states' won't go into her column with 'no more discussion'; that's not the way elections work in a democracy.

[IndianaGreen]

24. Like anothe DUer said, they will have to take Hillary out of the convention strapped to a gurney

just like they did Brittney Spears when she had her meltdown.

[rainbow4321]

31. Or she will be like the Wicked Witch of the West

in The Wizard of Oz....(cue Oz's wicked witch music) flying above the crowd of delegates..."your votes will be MINE"....

[IndianaGreen]

89. and she will be followed by her flying minions from Hillaryis44

Hopefully it will start to rain and they will all melt right in front of a national TV audience.

[rainbow4321]

101. Flick of a Bic next to the building's ceiling fire sprinklers ought to suffice

They can use mine...I keep spares.

Maybe we can just cancel her hotel reservations like the DNC cancelled the Michigan delegates' rooms?? Then tell her that Obama is getting the ***Presidential suite*** at the same hotel??

[Speck Tater]

25. No vote count count shall over ride her divine right to rule.

I'm sure that's how she sees it anyway.

[Auntie Bush]

27. If Obama loses PA...will he accept the Vice presidency?

Bet that will get some goats. Just trying to pull your beard. lol

[Cha]

34. hilary doesn't have a gracious bone

in her body..no bowing out. They'll either get the hook or take her away screaming in a white coat.

[RememberWellstone]

36. It's about Wyoming

That was a much bigger catch from I am told.:shrug:

[Beacool]

37. Hell, no!!!!!!!!!

Please, it's MS. Who do you think will come out and vote tomorrow? The same demographics that voted in SC, GA, LA, etc.

Why should she drop out over it? PA is the real battleground, let's see how both candidates do there.

[NMMatt]

40. So by battleground you mean a state where hillary is favored?

So I assume if Obama were to pull an upset in PA, then it would no longer count.

[Beacool]

43. Nope, PA will count.

Regardless of who wins it. In MS Hillary doesn't have a chance because of the demographics, but PA is more racially varied.

[olkaz]

48. You missed the point.

You're calling Hillary-favored states the battleground states.

I mean, you do know that she needs 60%+ of the vote from here on out.

Every single state is important now.

[NMMatt]

49. See in a democracy every state that followed the rules counts.

Even states that don't follow the rules have the option to have another election. That's how things work in a DEMOCRACY.

I understand that you live in a warped Clinton spin world, so I will forgive you for not understanding democracy. But you don't get to pick and choose which states count and which ones don't. And if the democratic party does decide to do that than I on principle will not be able to support the wrongly chosen candidate since I'm a little "d" democrat first.

[Beacool]

55. Cut the arrogance, I know that it's typical of Obama's supporters but it's tiresome.

There is no way in hell that Hillary can win in MS because of the black vote. No one is saying that MS doesn't count, just that PA is a larger state with more delegates and it's a better battleground because the demographics are not skewed to favor one particular candidate.

[NMMatt]

64. NC is nearly as large as PA

And besides - the Appalachian vote is skewed toward Hillary. High percentage of Latinos, Appalachians and states where she served in office - those are the demographics she wins. Every other state votes for Obama - Midwest, Pacific Northwest, the South, many New England states, Plains states, Alantic Coast states, the Mountain West and Alaska and Hawaii. You can also throw in there citizens that don't reside in states like the Dems Abroad and Virgin Islands.

So the point stands. The only "battleground" states either have high Latino percentages (California and Texas) or have high percentages of unemployed Appalachian hillbillies (Ohio and PA). The fact that Obama actually competes in these states and Clinton gets blown out everywhere else basically shows why he is winning and she is losing.

[Madam Mossfern]

73. So then you're discounting the black vote?

I don't get this line of reasoning.

[Beacool]

88. I'm not discounting anybody.

I'm just stating a fact: Hillary has no chance of winning any state where at least half of the Democratic voters are African American. Ergo, she will lose today in MS.

Each candidate depends on his/her demographics:

Obama - African Americans, the young and the upwardly mobile

Hillary - Women, older folks and the working class

[SoCalDem]

47. When Obama was polling 15%, she only had 36% support

she needs the time on the ground there..maybe he doesn't need as much time..

She wouldn't win there by 70% anyway and he's got the numbers..

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1117

[NMMatt]

52. I meant that he only needs 30 percent of the super delegates

to win the nomination after all pledged delegates from all the primaries weighed in. Obama doesn't need the super delegates to side with him. He only needs a third (and likely even less) to confirm the will of the people. The Clinton-spun pundits keep talking as if they both need equal amounts of super delegates. Obama needs a fraction. Clinton needs a tidal wave of support from the super delegates.

[NMMatt]

53. Sorry - wrong thread!

[SoCalDem]

54. hehehehehe.. I do that all the time

these days it's hard NOT to :)

[johnnydrama]

51. why not

Why isn't North Carolina a battleground state?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

39. No. Mississippi is one of those irrelevant "little" states.

Only Ohio, Florida, New York and California count.

[Lord Helmet]

41. shit he could win 120% of the vote and she wouldn't bow out

[rodeodance]

76. you got that right. And no reason for her to bow out.

[havocmom]

42. I don't see her 'bowing out' when Obama wins in November

Seems there is a sense of entitlement which defies logic going on.

[aquarius dawning]

44. not a chance.

[PseudoIntellect]

56. Yeah, she will never bow out. Nothing else counts anymore, except PA.

[krawhitham]

57. It is going to take an Arkansas...

knife fight behind closed doors at the convention before she quits

[boppers]

58. She will Bow out.

...and apologize for her IWR vote.
...and apologize for her Cluster Bomb vote.
...and apologize for endorsing McCain.
...and apologize for trying to use needless drama to win elections.


Unfortunately, shortly thereafter, the universe will collapse upon itself because the utterly, totally, completely improbable did, actually, happen to occur.

[Leopolds Ghost]

104. She will also turn into a very surprised-looking whale

As she hurtles toward the... what shall I call it... battle-ground states below.

[bridgit]

59. Ha! 'the metric"? No, Mississippi? Only Chris Rock is allowed get get away with a line about...

"Jheri Curl niggers from Mississippi" and get away with...how much less would you presume HRC to do so, hm? Marginalize yourself if you care to, other are well ahead of the curve ;)

[tandem5]

62. hey if Obama gets around 58-60% he'll probably pickup only 1 or 2 delegates...

due to racially motivated gerrymandering. Since many Obama supporters declared that he won Texas fairly because of the crazy dual caucus/primary in which people would have to vote twice to make their vote fully count a 100% (even though she won the popular vote by more than 100k), I suppose I'll just have to declare Mississippi practically a wash! Rules are rules and all the many different delegate allocation systems can do no wrong. Hmmm... 1 or 2 delegates and I wonder how many more votes he'll get over Clinton - yup seems fair to me.

[Tennessee Gal]

66. If a frog had wings ...

yada, yada, yada.

[TheDeathadder]

68. what part of it's going to PA,

the next big contest, don't you understand? If you want to win this, have a blow out in PA, until then stop this whole "Save Obama. Stop The Primary" call for helps.

[Zynx]

71. Considering that 55% of the electorate is African American and Obama is projected to get 90% of the

vote there, such a result would hardly be shocking if he got a relatively weak 30% of the white vote.

[Arkansas Granny]

79. Is there any poll data that supports those numbers? The ones I've

seen show a win for Obama, but not by that margin. I don't think she will consider leaving the race because of Mississippi. This is not one that she is expected to win anyway.

[4themind]

81. Replace mississippi with pennsylvania

and you may have a more convincing case...even then though I don't think it will end even if she loses PA by that much, she's tenacious. Also, the majority of mississippi democratic voters are african american(from what I've read and I'm not saying that their votes count less), and just looking from the results from these past primaries, I don't think that's her "base", not when compared to Obama anyway. SHe'll argue that Pennsylvania has closer demographics to Ohio which she won, so she'll appeal to that "base" I think.

[workinclasszero]

82. No she won't.

She's not running to win. She's running to destroy Obama's GE run so her close friend McCain will win and she can try again in 2012.

[Medusa]

84. If he won PA, she still wouldn't leave the race

I don't think she's got it in her to admit defeat. This is something she's wanted-badly--for a long time and she thinks she's entitled to it.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

85. She won't bow out. 65-35 is actually a tie. (Just you wait.)

[BigDDem]

86. Oh yes, definitely

as Mississippi goes, so goes the nation.

:rofl:

[workinclasszero]

87. Hillary will drag out her defeat all the way to the convention so she can

split the party and hand the GE over to her good buddy McCain.

Hillary is running for 2012 now.

[mculator]

90. If she dropped out, everyone would cry.

Why else is Edwards support INCREASING on DU?

[Sir Jeffrey]

91. If Obama wins 99-1, she still won't bow out...

she has to be forced out by the Superdelegates.

[Beacool]

92. What base does she have in MS????

Let me predict who voted today for Obama:

- The young in masses
- The African-Americans in droves
- The yuppies or limousine liberals, as they used to be called

[hulka38]

95. No, she likes to drive buses into ditches.

[Laelth]

96. MS does not count!

:sarcasm:

You know that, surely.

:eyes:

-Laelth

[HughMoran]

97. Well, it counts for 0.8% of Democratic delegates

...so there's that :D

[elehhhhna]

98. LOL. No way . He could win the General Election and she'll still be

campaigning.

She's wacky.

[Telly Savalas]

99. She'll call him up at 3 AM every night to tell him that McCain would have done a better job than him

[TBF]

100. She will never stop. I'm surprised she hasn't ...

decided to run for president of Russia yet. Despite not being able to pronounce Medeved, that point in the debate did give her info about another country that needed a ruler.