**Breaking*-Senator Obama surges in national polls

[Tropics_Dude83]

On Tuesday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 48% of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns support from 41% (see recent daily results). Obama is expected to win big in Mississippi’s Primary today.

What has caused this? Hillary's Mccain comments, the VP flap, the Wyoming victory, buyers' remorse, very interesting indeed.

[Colobo]

1. GOBAMAAAAAA!

[MadBadger]

2. How I love your little overreactions in your thread titles..lol

[skooooo]

3. People are seeing Hillary for her ways....

...your strategy isn't working, Hillary. It's over. Time to step down.

[cboy4]

4. Is this the same poll that showed Obama winning in

Texas and Ohio?

Just curious.

[MadBadger]

5. I dont think Rasmussen ever had him winning Ohio.

[goclark]

24. Rasmussen has not favored him ever to my knowledge

Right?

I thought they always were on the Bush side of things.

[roguevalley]

36. even his game plan didn't allow for that. that he did better there

than planned is good.

[Tropics_Dude83]

6. No

They had Ohio 50-44 Clinton in their final poll and their final TX poll was 48-47 Obama compared to their 2nd to last TX poll which was 48-44 Obama and they indicated Clinton had halted Obama's TX momentum.

[SoonerPride]

7. He did win texas, remember?

Or don't delegates count in your world?

[cboy4]

8. No, he lost Texas. You sound like a 2000 Supreme Court

Justice.

[ORDem]

11. Hate to break it to you, but pledged delegates are what count. Obama won TX. Period. n/t

[Colobo]

15. Who got more delegates, cboy?

[cboy4]

18. So once again, the popular vote means nothing.

I see.

[olkaz]

19. uh, that is correct

Please refer to the rules. Thanks.

[cboy4]

22. Wow, You don't have a problem with the person

with the fewest votes "winning?"

Frightening.

[CreekDog]

38. your candidate doesn't seem to have a problem with it

in fact, that's her strategery. :wtf:

[Colobo]

20. That's the system, cboy!

[cboy4]

27. Okay, well if the superdelegates decide this, I better not

hear you whining Katezenkavalier.

Because you're now on record as supporting the system.

[Apollo11]

52. Slam dunk!

Looks like you won this point, cboy4! B-)

[CreekDog]

37. i thought Hillary said how the delegates vote is all that matters

now you care about popular votes...suddenly? :eyes:

[anigbrowl]

48. Cboy, that's how the system works.

Both candidates knew going in to Texas, and indeed going into the nomination contest, that it was a delegate race. And both candidates knew going in that Texas had a quirky system for delegate assignment that rewarded consistent party loyalty. If you thought the nominee should be picked by popular vote alone, then you should have brought that up last year.

Every time you post one of these popular vote posts, you're basically saying that the rules should not apply to your candidate.

[TBF]

35. Actually he did win Texas (link to results inside)

We have 228 delegates total here in Texas. Obama comes out ahead by a few delegates if all projections are correct. But you will notice that they are not nearly finished counting the caucus votes so the projections are just that - an educated guess. They are organized by senate district, and the numbers look big in terms of "numbers of delegates" because they will be whittled down before Denver. For instance I was a precinct captain at precinct 58 in Brazoria County, going to senate district 11. We sent 31 Obama delegates, 10 Hillary delegates. By the time we get through elections to have the actual delegates selected for Denver that will go down to about 4 delegates for Obama and 1 for Hillary from that particular precinct. I know it's confusing, and I do think they should change it. I would have preferred one decisive primary like Ohio.

This is the link to the unofficial results:
http://precinctconventionresults.txdemocrats.org/election08district

(You may have to enter your name/address to get to the page but I attempted to post the direct link).

Also of note is that the caucus delegates are not as binding as the primary votes. The delegates generally will vote their precinct wishes, but are not bound to.

To be fair Hillary won Ohio with more emphasis, but I do believe in the end we will be calling Obama the winner of Texas.

[DuaneBidoux]

44. Check the delegate count: he picked up more delegates in Texas than Hillary

Including the Caucus.

[rateyes]

13. Obama won Texas, else he would have garnered fewer delegates..

he got more than Clinton. Looks like Clinton's support in Texas was soft...more of Obama's primary voters showed up, also, for the caucuses.

[rcsl1998]

46. Gee, I Can't Wait To Vote Twice In The GE Like The TX Primary/Caucus! Oh, Wait... nt

[Hawkowl]

49. You mean twice like a primary/general election?

nt

[OzarkDem]

51. Yes, Rasumssen is GOP

and not reliable.

[Political Heretic]

55. The answer is no, it is not the same polll.

:hi:

[karynnj]

9. This also shows how completely wrong the pundits were last week as they pushed the HRC momentum junk

The truly satisfying thing is that they argued that going negative was a winner and that Obama had to do so as well. (Though why the guy who won 13 or 14 (depedending on how you count TX) of the last 16 contests should change to the method used for the last month by the one with at most 3 out of 16 is beyond me.

This is a victory for the high road set by Obama and amplified by many of his top surrogates. (The tone of surrogates says something - Bradley, Kerry and Daschle - all out their this weekend - are thoughtful, serious gentleman, who made the case for Obama using logic not intimidation.

[tishaLA]

10. The McCain thing really hurt her

whether her supporters are willing to acknowledge it or not. It was not something Democrats, who like Obama even if they aren't planning to vote for him, want to hear.

[flpoljunkie]

12. The Gallup daily polling has Obama up 49% to Hillary's 44% today.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-nine percent of Democratic voters nationally support Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination compared with 44% backing Hillary Clinton, giving Obama a slight but statistically significant five percentage point lead.

For the past week Clinton and Obama had been neck and neck in national Democratic support, but preferences have now returned to where they stood in late February when Gallup Poll Daily tracking found Obama consistently ahead by a 5- to 8-point margin.

This comeback for Obama started prior to his victory in the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday, March 8, thus blunting Clinton's winning streak coming off of the March 4 primaries. Obama has led Clinton on each of the individual days included in today's three-day rolling average, from March 7-9. -- Lydia Saad

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104878/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Recaptures-Lead-Among-Democrats.aspx

[democrattotheend]

39. Nah, it's 48-45 now

That was yesterday. Obama is still ahead though. It looks like his support is not collapsing the way I thought it was last week. He had a tough week but it looks like he is bouncing back. Fingers crossed.

[Upton]

14. Things are back to normal

[Not the Only One]

16. Voters are realizing how bad Hillary would be for the country

Obama just needs to keep on keepin' on. Stay on message and the race is ours.

[LadyVT]

17. Here are the national pollster.com results.. Obama is not "surging" at all:

These are more accurate than a daily poll, BTW, and they are all within the margin of error (meaning there is no statistical difference whatsoever):

McCain vs. Clinton:

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Clinton Not Voting Undecided Other
Rasmussen 3/6-9/08 1600 LV 45 46 - - -
Newsweek 3/5-6/08 1215 RV 46 48 - 6 -
Rasmussen 3/2-5/08 1600 LV 46 45 - - -
SurveyUSA 3/4/08 1041 RV 46 48 - - -
ABC/Post 2/28-3/2/08 LV 47 50 1 1 1

McCain vs. Obama

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Other Undecided Not Voting
Rasmussen 3/6-9/08 1600 LV 45 44 - - -
Newsweek 3/5-6/08 1215 RV 45 46 - 9 -
Rasmussen 3/2-5/08 1600 LV 46 44 - - -
SurveyUSA 3/4/08 1041 RV 46 46 - - -
Cook/RT 2/28-3/2/08 802 RV 38 47 3 12 -
ABC/Post 2/28-3/2/08 LV 42 53 2 3 1

[jenmito]

26. Today is March 11th. You're living in the past with your data. n/t

[LadyVT]

30. The latest are March 6 through 9. Two days ago.

Pollster.com only posts collections of polls that have margins of error and a decent measure of random sampling.

[thewiseguy]

31. Are those head to head polls? NO

Find me some head to head polls that suggest Hillary is ahead of Obama.

[jenmito]

34. It doesn't even matter. Those are older polls than the ones above.

A lot has happened in the last few days.

[jenmito]

33. Exactly. Old news. Older than the polls posted that show Obama rising.

And your pollster.com goes back way too far to mean anything.

[Abacus]

21. RCP average has Obama at +5 over Clinton

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

23. buyer's REEEEEEEEMORSE!!!!

[NYDem Observer]

25. I think the VP flap backfired

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

43. No question, that was a defining moment and will cost Hillary dearly. GObama!

[meow mix]

28. mccain comments

biting her ass now

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

47. This is what happens when you play "cozy" with the enemy.

[Apollo11]

29. More recent findings from Rasmussen Reports

Why Hillary is just as popular as Obama, and either candidate could expect a close race against McCain.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Why Hillary would be the strongest candidate in November, because voters trust her to fix the economy.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_than_clinton_on_national_security_clinton_has_edge_on_economy

[jenmito]

32. Irrelevant. Once Obama stands side by side with McCain in debates, that will all change in Obama's

favor. Hillary, with her similar positions to McCain re: the war vote and their views on torture and dealing with our enemies, would FALL in the polls at that time. Good thing we won't have to worry about that.

[2_CentsWorth]

40. Polls change... Clinton surged ahead by 15 points in PA.....

and Obama has always been expected to take Mississippi --

Currently an ABC poll now shows the popular vote differs by about 5000 -- that's not much.

Democratic Delegates Votes
.
CLINTON 1471 13,599,882
OBAMA 1581 13,602,437
.
Updated March 10, 2008 - 11:11 AM EST

[dempartisan23]

41. spitzer will hurt clinton as well

[mtnester]

53. Be careful, people ususaly never survive

a leap that far

[Orsino]

42. Don't blame his surge on Clinton.

Credit Obama with it. From a virtual unknown, he's come a long way in a couple of years.

[DuaneBidoux]

45. She didn't hurt his case recently however.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

50. Hillary's recent rally was basically a bear market bounce.

The summit-less mountain of BS she's built is starting to collapse on her.

[Political Heretic]

54. That's the appropriate national response from democrats to someone acting like a jackass.

Stating that the republican nominee for president would make a better nominee than a democratic candidate ought to get you laughed out of Washington democratic politics for life.

[catgirl]

56. Hillary had a minor bump after the repugs helped her win Ohio

then she crashed. C'est la vie.

[Medusa]

57. And as the Ferraro remarks continue to gain traction

she'll continue to plummet in the nationals. :evilgrin: