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Really, people... Kerry is doing FINE

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 08:46 PM
Original message
Really, people... Kerry is doing FINE
Edited on Sun May-09-04 08:48 PM by liberalpragmatist
The guy is running even with Bush in many polls, behind in some polls and ahead in some others (though all within the margin of error). By some polling records (check out www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com ), he's leading Bush 48-44 in "purple" states.

The guy is doing fine. Sure, his campaign has work to do, and there's nothing wrong in listing them: his message is vague, his Iraq policy is being overtaken by events on the ground, he needs to connect better with minority voters, and he has to get more charisma.
I'm not worried. He may not completely solve all of these problems, but I have no doubt that he'll go a great deal towards solving all of these - the election is in NOVEMBER.

Plus, every campaign appears somewhat listless in the first few months - the stories on Clinton's campaign (I wouldn't remember 'cuz I was too young, but I've looked them up) had the same complaints. No candidate is perfect, but Kerry will improve, and he will win.

And when was the last time a challenger was running this even in the polls against an incumbent? I believe (though I could be wrong) that even Reagan was far behind Carter at this point.

In fact, I'd rather have Kerry abt 10 pts behind Bush by mid-September or right after the GOP Convention. Kerry has always shined in past races when he needs to close a gap in one or two months. He's always underestimated and people always say the exact same things about him that they're saying right now. He'll overcome it. Remember that this is the guy who's campaign was DEAD, DEAD, DEAD at two weeks before Iowa.

Take a deep breath. He's doing fine.

ON EDIT: I should also mention that people seem to be complaining that Kerry isn't crushing Bush right now. Understand that most swing voters do not right away swing from one candidate to the next. They have major uncertainties about Bush, which is represented in his poll numbers on the issues and his approval ratings. Right now, they're dissatisfied with him, and they need some time before that uncertainty will lead them to Kerry. As the race closes, they will face a choice and the vast majority of them, if they're uneasy about Bush, will ultimately opt for Kerry as the alternative.
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UrbScotty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. We still have 177 days to go!
Breathe in, breathe out.
Breathe in, breathe out.
Breathe in, breathe out.
Breathe in, breathe out.
Breathe in, breathe out.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. At this time in 2000 Al Gore was 10 points down
And he came back and won.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Yeah where is Al Gore these days?
He oughta be out there campaigning for his re-election.
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. I think everyone that thinks Kerry is doing bad or stagnate right now
get very upset because this election is so very, very important and very frightening because it could be are last hope. I think things are going fine right now because of all the scandals, which will take it's toll on bush.
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CharlesGroce Donating Member (446 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
4. I don't think doing even
is doing well against a war criminal all. Actually, this means bad news for us I think. Maybe Kerry should define his own forum, based on the genuine needs of the American people rather than allowing the corporate media to define it for him.

John Kerry: RICHEST SENATOR IN HISTORY/MASTER REPRESENTATIVE FOR HIRE
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
5. I have no illusions that Kerry should be crushing Bush right now
Even a winning campaign will see around 50% of the vote. I said that about Gore and think that about Kerry or anyone else. But, that said, his current poll numbers are thanks to Bush imploding not anything good he did. Bush's approval is hovering around 50% some have him under others over. The lowest his approval will fall is around 45%. Kerry really should have a somewhat more substantial lead at this point. The only good things I see at this point is that his fundraising has gone fantasticly and his numbers in the blue states are lower than Gore's were but still winning. So his national poll numbers are a little better than they appear provided he still wins those Gore states. In other words as long as he wins places like California and New Jersey I don't care by how much. If he has lost some over Gore in those states but gained in others that is actually good news.

The unity of the Democratic party is a two edged sword. It props his numbers up and masks problems. It of course, also helps him by giving him a floor. Kerry has to win this, which I think he can. But pretending that problems he has are non existent or self correcting does no one any good.
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George_Bonanza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
7. This election has taught me a valuable lesson
I was despondent about Kerry's chances in the winter of 2003, and the unbelievable happened in Iowa. I have no doubt that pleasant changes will occur close to November. I also think that Nader's support will collapse as the situation in Iraq worsens and the protest voters will realize that their votes may end up costing thousands of lives more than needed.
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Arkana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-09-04 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. Finally
Someone who isn't running around like a headless chicken screaming, "The sky is falling! Kerry's behind in the Faux News poll!" or something equally asinine.

Sure, Kerry's behind in some polls. He's ahead in others. He and Bush are neck and neck pretty much--quite an accomplishment already for a challenger against an incumbent.

A lot can happen between May and November. Let's not get antsy until September or October.
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notbush Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-10-04 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
9. I'm a Deanie...and , yes, my feelings are still somewhat hurt
I would never (NEVER) vote for Bush...but I may forget about election day, and vote for no-one.
Kerry is the ultimate pragmatist...to a point where I do not believe he has a political soul.
Six months is a long time, but I'm not lukewarm, I'm COLD, to John Kerry today.
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