August 27, 2008 Nightmare

[grantcart]

We are now heading to one of two outcomes.
1) Either the candidate who has won the primary and caucus system will be the nominee or

2) We will be witnessing the nomination of Senator Clinton.

In trying to understand how Clinton supporters think this is going to play out several threads have pleaded for Clinton supporters to explain what possible scenario could they imagine that is going to change the dynamics so that Senator Clinton could overcome what THEY NOW CONCEDE will be a substantial pledged delegate lead to the convention. If you find this obvious fictional projection to be far fetched I would be very happy to read any reasonable scenario from a Clinton supporter that can explain how they see the nomination going to Senator Clinton without fracturing the party.


AP - (Denver, CO) for all wires - IMMEDIATE FLASH - Pictures to follow
by various corespondents

SENATOR CLINTON CONFIRMED NOMINEE AS DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION DISSOLVES INTO CHAOS

While eight different interest groups have entered into 4th district Federal Court to challenge the results it appears that Senator Clinton has secured the nomination of the party her husband headed to the White House over a fractured and divided party.

Following the most protracted, lengthy and expensive primary campaign seasons Senator Obama's campaign seemed to have secured the nomination by the end of June with a 176 delegate lead but falling short by what most experts estimate as 38 delegates from the 2024 needed to secure the nomination.

A series of strange events in June and July ended up discrediting 7 members of the standing rules committee. These members, all Obama supporters, were found to have had 7 separate scandals all being brought to light in rapid succession as the convention was formulating its final rules for the credentials and rules committee. It now appears that 4 of the charges that surfaced - all originally surfacing on "The Drudge Report" were leaked from FBI files.

The FBI has confirmed that there has been a breach of the files but that the claims contained in the Drudge Report contained charges that were unsubstantiated and found to be untrue. Two DNC standing rules committee members have said that the documents related to charges of laundering drug money were counterfeit. The seventh rule member remains hospitalized and unable to comment.

As the standing rules committee was meeting on August 24th Clinton supporter Howard Ickes raised a motion that established a special committee to rule on a solution to the Michigan and Florida delegation petitions and stunned the convention by sitting 167 delegates for Senator Clinton and only 23 for Senator Obama.

The Convention opened with acrimonious speeches and fight for the control of the convention with supporters shouting out all speakers not from their camp. After forgoing all speeches 8 ballots were taken and a series of complex negotiations undertaken so that Senator Clinton's representatives produced a complete presentation of Cabinet positions with Mayor Villagrosa as Vice President, 5 Governors 4 Senators and 6 Congressman all getting cabinet level positions. After copies of the Clinton cabinet were distributed Senator Clinton was able to secure the nomination with 3 votes.

Obama supporters erupted in anger and the convention was brought to an abrupt end when the electrical system suffered a complete failure when 3 transformers to the convention were disabled.

Delegates committed to Senator Obama left the convention center and headed to the City Civic Center to conduct a competing convention. It is not clear yet whether they will seek a state by state battle to gain control for ballot recognition or whether they will run as a third party. Efforts to contact Senator Obama and other past leaders of the party has not been successful but leaders of Obama's delegations in Denver said that they would pursue 'whatever avenues necessary to secure the nomination for our movement'.

end AP report




Again this is the kind of disaster it seems we are drifting towards.

Obviously Clinton supporters see a different path to the nomination. What is that path?

Is there any Clinton supporter who would be so kind as to show how, using current delegate numbers and the primaries and caucuses ahead, they see a reasonable Clinton nomination outcome that does not ignite a firestorm in the party? Could someone step forward? A reasonable scenario would be of benefit to your side as it would help stem the flow of Clinton defectors who seem to be posting a thread every other day.

Such a scenario would let the rest of us see that you have a reasonable basis for continuing the campaign and not simply trying to stay in the campaign and assist in the destruction of the current leader.

Let me thank the Clinton supporter(s) in advance that is(are) able to provide this valuable service. Thank you.


edited to correct spelling per posters kind suggestion

[elleng]

1. Is there any reason for this post

OTHER THAN to inflame?

[grantcart]

3. Good question

I would sincerely like to see what scenario Clinton supporters see unfolding that would bring the nomination without destruction of the party.

I don't think anyone in here would support the scenario in the OP. What other set of circumstances are they looking at that justifies continued party fighting that many think lessens our chance for winning the GE.

I would be grateful for a serious alternative scenario that is based on reality.

[elleng]

14. Public sentiment

'A nationwide Gallup poll showed Senator Hillary Clinton of New York taking a statistically significant lead over Mr. Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, for the first time since early February, just after the Super Tuesday primaries.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/us/politics/21camp.html?sq=gallup%20poll&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&scp=1&adxnnlx=1206267810-W+u6S3mux5noaAqjlRlopw

[grantcart]

15. Already gone the other way but in the end quite irrelevent

1) We select by selecting delegates not by polls. That process is 80% completed and because of proportinal distribution of delegates by districts it is very difficult to catch up in delegates.

A 2 delegate district, for example will always go 1-1

A 3 delegate district will split 2-1 unless somebody get 68% in that district. It doesn't matter if they win 51% or 58% it will be the same split. Because Obama's support tends to be more concentrated in urban areas he gets districts that have higher delegate counts and with higher percentages. That is why even when he loses by narrow margins he still wins a lot of delegates.

So this is the question what is the scenario that you see to get to the nomination?

[grantcart]

16. Even Schumer admits this

Schumer also suggested that the current system of awarding pledged delegates is flawed. "The delegate counts are so close, and you can win a state by quite a lot and you still don't win the delegates by quite a lot,” he said. "Maybe that's a flawed system. But that will be for the next election, not this one.

[Lucky 13]

25. Yeah... there is

Some of us are desperately trying to talk some sense into Hillary supporters we know are good people but are buying into her lies.

She is done. Any talk otherwise is straight-up denial and enabling of her quest based on the mantra: "If I can't have the white house, no one will." She has no leg to stand on. She has no clear path to the nomination. She cannot retake the lead in delegates or popular vote. The only thing left is the POLLS (which she cherry picks to her liking) and to try to smear OUR NOMINEE.

IT'S OVER. SHE'S BEEN UNDONE BY HER OWN SLEAZY TACTICS, LIES, AND EGOTISM.

[MonkeyFunk]

2. The editing at AP is going downhill....

"speaches"? "Villagrosa"? "corespondents"? "acrimonuous"? "govenors"? "persue"? And why the 4th district, which covers the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia?

But more importantly, the scenario is ludicrous. I know it's en vogue to posit that Clinton is the new Caligula, but it's unfounded.

[grantcart]

4. and what scenario do you see for the nomination of Clinton that you consider to be

well founded?

[nicknyc]

5. It will be an unfortunate day

It will be an unfortunate day in democratic politics where on one side Obama supporters "SCREAM" that they are for the DNC rules, while in the same sentence they "BULLY" the SDs in not using their rights under DNC rules to decide whoever they want to support.

Thank god, Bill Richardson came out in Obama's support, otherwise he would have been LYNCHED here on DU for returning the favor to his old masters and what not.

When I see Obama supporters on DU, I mostly see bunch bullying groups who are filled with nothing but total hatred for clinton supporters. I just hope they are not like this in REAL LIFE.

Why Obama supporters are afraid to fight till the last delegate/SD. Why they are trying to bully Hillary out of Campaign.


Unless Obama has reached the magic no. required for nomination, Hillary should keep fighting on as we never know what will be next big scandal in Obama's empty suit..which may lead to complete exodus of delegates.


BTW, I'm a first time voter, non-Cristian non-white minority and I was an OBAMA supporter till 2 weeks ago (i have donated and volunteered for him in NJ). I switched to Hillary after the paster-gate.

[ossman]

6. This is why we hate you...

"Unless Obama has reached the magic no. required for nomination, Hillary should keep fighting on as we never know what will be next big scandal in Obama's empty suit..which may lead to complete exodus of delegates."

your words.

[grantcart]

9. its late at night friend - we don't hate anyone

[ossman]

10. Its early morning here. And I kinda do.

[grantcart]

11. I understand your frustration but it is Easter and it doesn't really help our cause

[Window]

13. *Snort*

[Window]

12. Yep. Can give it out but can't take it.

Call other people names first, when they call you on it...scream and whine til the cows come home.

[SoCalDem]

7. pastor

sorry..had to do it :evilgrin:

[grantcart]

8. There are excited folks on both sides and sometimes even good folks bully out of misplaced

passion.

Speaker Pelosi has indicated that she thinks the superdelegates will support the candidate who gets the majority of the pledged delegates and Obama is 221 from that number. Given the most possible generous breakdown for Senator Clinton, it appears that Senator Obama will reach that number during the Oregon primary.



Welcome to DU.

[joshcryer]

23. In real life most are not politically aware of anything.

They tend to be completely oblivious to politics as a whole and are voting their "conscious." Their "feelings."

[phrigndumass]

17. I rec'd, because it's worth at least considering

:dunce:

[JohnnyLib2]

18. *

:spank:

[noel711]

19. This is not helpful to the climate....

of hostility here.

[2008]

20. Here's how Hillary wins without the party self-destructing...

1) Hillary stays in the race despite the demands of Obama's supporters that she drop out

2) She continues to fall short of the delegates needed to catch up with Obama

3) Obama continues to fall short of the delegates needed win the nomination

4) Obama self-destructs. This could be because a video is posted on YouTube which shows him slapping a kid, kicking a puppy, or snorting cocaine. Never mind that Obama is a better person than that. Anything can happen. He could suffer a stroke. Maybe he becomes very melancholy and resists getting out of bed in the morning. A safe drops out of the sky and lands in the exact spot where he was trying to walk.

As long as Hillary has the money to continue campaigning, and as long as none of the above happen to her first, her nomination is theoretically possible. What incentive does she have to quit? For the good of the party? If she thought the party was better off with another candidate as the nominee, she wouldn't have joined the race in the first place.

[joshcryer]

22. Heh, if he suffered a stroke Hillary would be blamed.

[joshcryer]

21. Your vile conspiracies are disgusting.

A Clinton outcome can only happen in three ways, first, she wins the primary vote and makes a very convincing argument, second she asks to have MI and FL seated in order to better judge the nomination standards and for some inexplicible reason Obama says no (he wouldn't), creating a shift in perception for Obama and leading to his superdelegates changing their position, or third, an Obama scandal of epic proportions breaks that destroys his electablity, dropping him in the polls considerably.

Otherwise it's unlikely she'd get superdelegates to vote for her unless they saw it as a fair and reasonable outcome in order to guarantee the election in Nov.

Mind you, there was no rioting when Bush won in 2000 and there would be no rioting and scandal and insanness if Hillary won the nomination in August.

[Rageneau]

24. Seat the honest Democratic voters of Florida and Michigan and the problem is solved.

The only reason we are having this problem is because the DNC (and Obama) refuse to let the legitimate votes of our fellow Democrats in FL and MI count. Through no fault of their own, these legitimate voters -- who have clearly expressed their desire that Hillary be the nominee -- have been disenfranchised by (GOP-sponsored?) gamesmanship at the stupid DNC.

Seat ALL Democratic voters -- fair and square -- and Hillary wins the nomination easily and outright.

The ONLY way Obama can stay in this race is if his people succeed in disenfranchising nearly four million good Democratic voters in Florida and Michigan.

Some unity, huh?