An Inconvenient Truth For the Clinton Campaign

[Yukari Yakumo]

Either candidate would need 1618 to claim they have a majority of pledged delegates.

In order for Clinton to reach 1618, she would have to win 63% of all remaining pledged delegates.

Of all the races, she has won a primary with 63% or more of the vote only once; her former home state of Arkansas.

Furthermore, NC is still on deck. Should Obama win 55% of NC's delegates, Clinton's number would spike to over 68% in order to win a majority of pledged delegates. If Obama gets Mississippi-like numbers and win 60% of NC's delegates, Clinton's number would jump all the way up to 70%.

Clinton supporters, time to put down the kool-aid. The odds she would ever win 63% of the remaining delegates, much less 68% to 70% of them, are virtually non-existent. This is the inconvenient truth. The super-delegates will not override the pledged delegates unless they are given an exceptional reason to do so. The only way Clinton could win the nom now is either through thievery or cheating.

[NYCGirl]

1. Doesn't she have any other former home states?

:evilgrin:

[Diane R]

2. Illinois....that didn't go so well for good.

[NYCGirl]

4. True.

:hi:

[tritsofme]

3. A majority of pledged delegates do not a nominee make.

Inconvenient for some I suppose.

[theredpen]

5. Technically, you are correct

But a person has a significantly higher probability of surviving a single gunshot wound than Hillary Clinton has of winning the nomination.

Knowing that, would you risk a gunshot wound?

[baldguy]

6. Is that a ten- or twelve-sided die?

[theredpen]

9. Roll better than a 1 on a d8

[doyourealize1]

7. sorry for supporting my canddiate

Chances are slim, but I"m supporting her.

There's a condescending tone in your post.

[Texas Hill Country]

8. statistical tie, and with vetting, her argument is a decent one. and accusations of thievery are

unfounded, rude, and divisive, and are the reason why I and a hell of a lot of other people are about to or have already left this board.

[MR. ELECTABLE]

10. Statistical Tie My Ass

Obama: 1418 pledged delegates
Clinton: 1251 pledged delegates

2687 total pledged delegates awarded to date

1418/2687 = 52.8%
1251/2687 = 46.6%

How in the hell can you call that a statistical tie?
That's a LARGER margin of victory than Bill Clinton had against G.H.W. Bush in 1992. (5.6%)

That's not a statistical tie-- if this were a general election, it would be considered a blowout!