Arghh! I'm starting to freak out about NJ and CA! (I'm addicted to polls)

[fujiyama]

What the hell is with these polls? Two of Gore's best states going to Kerry by a margin of just a few points.

Please tell me that I should stop freaking out...and that maybe I should take solice from the fact that NC is going to Bush by only 6 points and that with Edwards he leads by only 1!?

But I can't. These polls are driving me insane...

I think I really need a drink...

[jpgray]

1. Look at Bush's numbers, and the undecideds

If Bush's numbers are in the forties, especially the low forties, and there are at least 10% undecided, we're in decent shape. If Bush is in the fifties and there are very few undecideds, then we're going uphill. The undecideds generally will fall more on the challenger's side, and an incumbent in the low forties is a sinkable one.

[dsc]

2. In one sense those numbers are good

If he ends up winning those states more narrowly than Gore did but wins nationally like Gore did, then he will have to win some red states that Bush won last time.

[whistle]

3. Polls are horse-shit....

...the only poll that counts is the one taken on November 2. All the rest are totally wrong 5% of the time and if they do reflect a trend, the best that the results can be are +/- 3 percentage points. The are there to fill the time and be entertained, so sit back and relax. The people who should do the worrying are the campaign managers. Oh, don't forget to vote.

[Doosh]

4. damn, only 3 up in NJ?

I don't believe that

but if NJ is a swing state this time, might as well get Corzine as the VP!

[Virginian]

5. Try to relax. Take deep breaths and repeat after me...

It is only May. It is only May. It is only May.

We have a couple of months before we have to start freaking out over polls. And besides, Truth is on our side. As long as people keep telling it, the polls will continue to drift to our side. Drip, drip, drip.

[othermeans]

6. Why is everybody freaking out about the polls?

Kerry is the presumptive nominee. The people haven't had a chance to really get to know him. Once the candidates are in place the Reichsfuhrer is finished. Stick a fork in him cause he's done. Remember the polls in the '48 election: Dewey beats Truman!

[JI7]

7. the elections are 6 months away

[Andromeda]

8. Just remember --

in 2000 Bush was ahead in almost every poll taken right up to election day. They would vary slightly but Chimpy was in the lead most of the time -- not by much but just enough to make people think that Bush would blow Gore out of the water.

Well, we all know what happened. If Bush hadn't been selected by SCOTUS, Gore would have been our president. Gore got about 500,000 more votes than Dim Son did. There were plenty of shenanigans going on in Florida and other states that were never publicized but Gore did get MORE votes than Chimpy.

Polls don't give the whole picture and many polls are biased in favor of Republicans.

[TheStateChief]

9. I agree...

but your point that Bush was ahead leading up to election night kind of blows a hole in the argument that I see a lot of people make that all the undecideds break for the challenger. I'm just wary of people changing the bar for what constitutes a good poll number - I don't want to wake up on November 3rd to find that all the undecideds didn't break for Kerry.

[Beetwasher]

11. Uhh, No It Doesn't Blow A Hole in it At All

Since there was no incumbent in 2000 there was no challenger for the undecideds to break to.

The point is that Bush was ahead right up to an election that he lost, vote-wise. The polls favored Bush then because they were biased towards Repubs and the same is true now.

Also, that's not the posters theory or personal argument that undecideds break towards the challenger, it's historical fact based on reams of data.

[Padraig18]

10. Take a DEEP breath.

Not only are the polls all over the place, but the election is 5 1/2 months away. At this point, polls are essentially meaningless.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

12. Mark my words!

Bush will not win in New Jersey! I live there and I just don't see it.
Not a chance.

[WI_DEM]

13. add Wisconsin to your list

one poll has Bush ahead 12-points here!! but that was late last month and alot has changed since then.

[lancdem]

14. Relax

Any state where Kerry is no worse than tied is one he'll almost certainly win, becuase of the undecided vote swinging his way.

[takebackthewh]

15. I cant imagine kerry losing either state.

maybe he will win by a smaller margin thangore did, but what difference does that make? he still gets all the electoral votes. in the EC, a win by 1 is just as good as a win by a million.

[PSU84]

16. No worries, mate.

California is 100% solidly in Kerry's column, and New Jersey is at least very likely in Kerry's column. Another recent poll (Rasmussen) has Kerry up 51%-39% in New Jersey.

If you need to worry, then worry about Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida - states Kerry must win and where the race is very close.