New Poll Says Bush has huge lead in South

[UnityDem]

http://www.ajc.com/today/content/epaper/editions/today/news_04ca55c9e512714000d5.html

This is a poll of 11 southern states stating that Bush has a 15 point lead over Kerry. However, there is NO state by state breakdown and we don't know how many people were polled from each state.
So, I don't know how much credence we should give it.

However, as a southerner, I must say that it turns my stomach and reinforces the image that we are all IGNORANT hicks. Sigh!

[wubbathompson]

1. could you post some of it

[UnityDem]

3. Here you go....

Almost 50 percent of people polled in 11 Southern states approve of the president's handling of Iraq, while 58 percent of Americans disapprove, according to a recent USA Today national poll. Sixty-four percent of Southerners approve of his handling of the broader war on terrorism, compared with a little more than half in the national poll.

The approval numbers reflect Southerners' voting intentions. If the election were held today, according to the AJC poll, Bush would beat Democratic Sen. John Kerry by 15 points --- 52 percent to 37 percent .

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Oy Vey!

what the hell is wrong with people?

[RummyTheDummy]

33. You might want to ask some people in other states that as well

I get a kick out of the rampant south bashing on this board. In reality, the Mountain West states -- Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas and Montana-- vote for Repugs in much larger numbers (percentage wise) than any single state in the south. For instance I belive the percentage of those from Utah who voted for Shit For Brains was greater than the percentage who voted for him in Texas.

[Moloch]

51. Good Point, but...

take away the African American population and whites from the South almost exclusively vote for republicans

[Classical_Liberal]

36. The Christian Coalition

Although I think if the war keeps up the way it is we will win a few southern states as well.

[papau]

28. Zogby poll - a few details

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/election/0504nation/20irtalk.html

Poll: South is sticking by Bush (Zogby)
Iraq setbacks notwithstanding, optimism rules; war on terror gets even higher score.

By DREW JUBERA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 05/19/04


Weeks after his nephew was killed while traveling in an Army convoy in Iraq, Ray Hartman prays for President Bush in handling the war. Despite his family's loss, Hartman believes Bush is doing the right thing.<snip>

Almost 50 percent of people polled in 11 Southern states approve of the president's handling of Iraq, while 58 percent of Americans disapprove, according to a recent USA Today national poll. Sixty-four percent of Southerners approve of his handling of the broader war on terrorism, compared with a little more than half in the national poll.

The approval numbers reflect Southerners' voting intentions. If the election were held today, according to the AJC poll, Bush would beat Democratic Sen. John Kerry by 15 points — 52 percent to 37 percent .

By contrast, the USA Today poll has Bush ahead by 1 percentage point, and a national Zogby poll taken last week has Kerry leading by 5 points.<snip>

"When George W. says something, that's it — it's going to happen, there's no ambiguity there," said Dan Clary, 30, a Scottsboro, Ala., field engineer. "I think Southerners like that."<snip>

[bluestateguy]

2. Texas

His big lead in Texas distorts that poll's results.

[UnityDem]

4. Texas was NOT part of the survey

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 500 likely Southern voters was conducted for the newspaper by Zogby International on Monday and Tuesday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. The respondents were randomly selected in each of the following states: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas.

[alcuno]

40. Didn't every last one of those states go * last time?

Generally, people don't like to admit their mistakes and I can't believe that southerners are any different.

[EstimatedProphet]

5. My grain of salt:

In Columbus GA I am not yet seeing bush/cheney stickers on vehicles but rarely. This is important because 1) Columbus is home to Fort Benning, and big on the Boo-Yah attatude, and 2) by this time in every election for the last 12 years, cars were full of Repub stickers. I don't know what this means, or whether it's a trend, but I think it's positive.

[flpoljunkie]

15. Yes, Kerry Campaign also sending out campaign kit packets...

Included in them are a bumper sticker, placard and lapel sticker in a letter from Mary Beth Cahill. This is a damn smart move!

Keep up the good work, Mary Beth!

[ArkDem]

21. They are only spending money in states where the vote is

expected to be close.

[Scoopie]

29. I also live in Republican central

and I'm not seeing too many Bush/Cheney '04 stickers (there are a few from '00 left to peel on cars, but that's beside the point).
The thing is, while this is a very Republican voting district, it's the traditional Republicans, i.e. fiscally responsible, get government out of our lives, reduce the deficit crowd.
The letters to the editor seem to be primarily anti-Bush, too.
Our congressman, Rep. John J. Duncan, Jr., is one of a few Republicans who voted against the war in Iraq and against the subsequent $87 billion for fiscal reasons. He is still very popular, too.
I'm wondering if Bush is alienating his base.

[freetobegay]

7. The South shall rise again! (end sarcasm).

[Tansy_Gold]

38. No sarcasm needed this time, freetobegay

I won't get into a southern/confederate tradition/history/heritage debate, but I think anyone who discounts the segregationist/isolationist mindset is missing a large piece of the puzzle.

[RummyTheDummy]

42. But what about these states

Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. What's their excuse? All the militia nuts?

[Tansy_Gold]

44. Not just militia.

The whole wild west mythos. Rugged individualist, pioneer spirit, self-reliance. The "personal responsibility" mantra sits well with them. They are very pro-America, manifest destiny and all that.

Back in the Reagan days, I used to listen to Arizona ranchers bitch about welfare cheats and hand-outs to the lazy poor. They'd go on and on and on about it while they came into the office to pick up their five- and six-figure government subsidy checks for their cotton crop or their dairy farm.

[dusty64]

8. This runs against

a story I read about a week ago claiming chimp's lead in "red" states is dwindling.



Bush and Kerry Tied in Red States! (Zogby)


from the most recent Zogby Poll:

In the Blue States, those that were won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 49.1% of support, as compared to Bush with 38.4%. In Red States Kerry and Bush are in a statistically tie with 45% a piece. The results here are reflective of a polarized and partisan electorate.

Blue Red John Kerry 49% 45 George W. Bush 38 45 Undecided 8 7
Kerry leads over Bush in the Eastern (53.1% - 35.7%), Western (45.3%-44.2%) and the Central Great Lakes (47.3%- 40.6%) regions, while Bush leads in the South (46.5%- 42.5%).


East South GrLk West Kerry 53% 43 47 45 Bush 36 47 41 44


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=528462

[UnityDem]

11. It confused me too/explanation might be

how many were polled in each state.
I would say that three states are overwhelmingly for Bush:
Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina
Three more are strongly (but not overwhelmingly) for Bush:
Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
Four are slightly for Bush:
N.C., Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas
One is a tossup or slighly for Kerry:
Florida (of course, Deibold and Jeb might take care of that, sigh!)

[dusty64]

14. I agree and think

its part of a strategy to desperately convince the Democrats to write off these states. I hope they don't listen cause the evidence I've seen convince me that the efforts so far are yielding results, particularly in Arkansas and Louisiana. It seems like just part of the disinformation campaign.

[Scoopie]

30. I think you've got some of them backwards

The swing states in the South are Tennessee, Louisiana and Arkansas.
North Carolina and Virginia will go Bush.

[dae]

43. You're on the money with Louisiana Kerry spent 2 days here last week.

He was at the Governors'Mansion, Cong. William Jeffersons' home, and on the road with Sen. John Breaux.

[CTLawGuy]

17. well

there are more red states than just those in the south.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Kerry needs to start campaigning in the South

Once they get to know him, I think those numbers will tighten.

And Zell Miller for VP could put us over the top!

[Gildor Inglorion]

10. Oh, come on...

Kerry does NOT need to waste any time or money in the south. It will take at least another generation to correct the attitudes and prejudices of this region (I'm in Mississippi; originally from Georgia). We MUST, MUST, MUST beat the Chimp in November. Any time or effort thrown away in the south is wasted. Ohio, New Hampshire, West Virginia plus the blue states Al Gore won - there's where all effort should be concentrated.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. I need to start posting with those smilie things

I agree completely, Gildor Inglorion.

Still, the vacant Southern senate seats demand attention and cash, at least the ones that appear to be in play.

[Scoopie]

31. Not entirely

I think he does need to spend time in the swing states of Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana.
I think Florida's a big waste of time as long as Jeb is there.

[bitchkitty]

20. Zell Miller?

You've got to be kidding.

Edit - ah! You are. Silly me! ;)

[geniph]

41. Miller is a total whore

he's nothing but a follower, a toady of whoever happens to be in power. When Clinton was President, he followed his lead and voted the way the party leadership wanted him to. When Bush the Elder was President, Miller's tongue was up his butt. Now he's AWOL-boy's little bootlicker. Miller's the quintessential Uriah Heep.

[bitchkitty]

46. Tell me about it!

I'm lived in Georgia for 30 years. I actually met Zell Miller at a reception in Atlanta, years ago. I was not into politics them, and didn't know him from Jesus. Sure wish I could run into him again!

[Alpharetta]

13. I agree with the poll

I have seen zero indication that support for Bush is lagging in Georgia.

They think all the bad news in Iraq is a propaganda campaign by the liberal media.

It all goes back to 9/11. They think Bush is their best bet to stop any future 9/11's. And if another one happens, well there's no way a Democrat could have stopped it.

The Democratic message is invisible here. This war would have paid for
- how many schools?
- how many doctors? how many clinics?
- how many policemen?
- how many affordable homes?
yet the Democrats do not put out the message. God I wish Martin Luther King were still alive. We have nobody to speak for what is right.

[Thrill]

16. Its a lost cause

Outside of Florida the Dems should be focusing on the West (NV, CO, NM, AZ) and the MidWest. Those southerners aren't going to vote for a Northerner. Its just reality.

[Not Me]

18. I agree...

Go for Florida, (and of course Ohio and Pennsylvania) and bitch-slap these people back into reality. It's going to take a couple liberal Democratic presidential terms to remind them where they came from.

[RummyTheDummy]

34. Apparently those in other states don't vote for Dems as well

As long as we're attacking a particular region of the country, let's hammer Utah, Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas and Idaho for voting for Shit Head in much greater percentages than any southern state.

I guess that's the dirty little secret here on DU. Nobody talks about those states and how they vote. Ever.

[mrgorth]

19. Don't panic.

It's about the electoral college. It makes no difference at all if Bush gets 51% or 100% of the votes in Miss, it's the same number of electoral votes. Kerry won't win any of NC, SC, GA, AL or MS. Accept it and move on.

[MallRat]

22. Which 11 states?

Last I heard, Arkansas is tied, North Carolina is close.

If Kerry takes just a couple of "southern" states, he's in. For every Alabama or Mississippi where he won't compete, there's a border state where he's in striking distance.

-MR

[UnityDem]

26. see post #4 for list of states

nt

[TheStateChief]

23. Regional polls are worthless

I get accused of posted anti-Kerry polls all the time but I think it is important to see the lay of the land in the states - even if it is only a "snapshot in May". But regional polls, no matter what methodology is used, are really completely useless. Why? Because I don't think anyone expects Kerry to take Texas. Florida? Arkansas? Louisiana? Those states are different stories and would all be pick-ups from the last election. If he loses the south by 50 points but takes any of those states I just mentioned it is a good thing. If he loses the south by 30 points and picks up all of those states I mentioned it will be a great day.

[Scoopie]

32. Agreed

The last poll I saw in Tennessee had Kerry and Bush in a statistical dead heat: Kerry 44, Bush 48, with a four-point MOE; therefore, a dead heat. And, this poll was taken before the 9/11 hearings and the Iraq POW pictures.
Regional polls are useless.

Oh - just so you guys know - Tennessee's Democratic governor is from the north - upstate New York, to be exact, and we ADORE him here. Don't count on southerners not voting for northerners as stated up thread.

[WI_DEM]

24. Anyone know what Bush's margin over Gore was in the south?

a 15-point margin without including Texas would mean that Kerry will need to run extremely well in other regions of the country.

[jsw_81]

25. Bush Sr. and Dole had huge leads in the south

[WI_DEM]

27. actually in '92

Bush, Sr. while he carried the south over Clinton didn't have a huge margin. Clinton carried Arkansas, Tn, and Ky. North Carolina, Georgia and Florida were all close. Even Mississippi, SC, and Va. were relatively close. Of course it is probable that Perot helped Clinton in the south.

And in '96 Dole didn't win the south by a huge margin either--Clinton gained Florida that year too.

[lancdem]

35. Rather than looking at Bush's 15-point lead

keep in mind his share of the vote is just 52 percent, a bare majority, with 11 percent undecided. Those will overwhelmingly go to Kerry, making the margin closer to 10 points, which isn't bad at all. I imagine Bush's approval is about 10 point higher in the South than nationally, so 52 percent ain't nothing to be proud of.

[GOPBasher]

37. "Bush has a huge lead in the south."

In other news, most humans have ten fingers.

[robbedvoter]

39. Don't believe the manufactured news. Polls schmolls!

You'll be pleasantly surprised in November.

[mitchum]

45. I am surrounded by idiots, y'all!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

47. Good lord. It's a frickin' USA Today poll, for cryin' out loud...

...their readership is remarkably conservative.

[Claire Beth]

48. I don't care what the polls say....

I KNOW Tennessee is up for grabs. I know several people who voted for * in 2000 who are very displeased and won't support him 2004. I hear anti-* remarks all the time. Even East TN (heavily republican) is not happy with *. Go to the state forum site here on DU and read what the state of TN posters are saying. Coming from a conservative area of the state, I say * is in trouble.

[troublemaker]

49. no surprise but always welcome news

superfluous southern Bush support will balance superfluous California support for Kerry and help disguise Bush's overall weakness.

[ButterflyBlood]

50. In related news, the sky is blue

I have no clue why southern DUers get so offended every time someone says the south is a lost cause. I used to live in North Dakota and would hardly be offended by someone saying ND is a lost cause (which it is)

[quaker bill]

52. As a southerner I would expect nothing else.

Kerry can put Florida in play. And just maybe one or two of the border states. But he will not carry any of the others, even if the rest of the country goes to him in a landslide.