Hillary is more electable

[MattBaggins]

How can anyone say this with a straight face? If she has lost the nomination to a wet behind the ear greenhorn neophyte; how is she ever going to compete against a man whose experience overshadows hers like a solar eclipse?

How is it that her campaign staff tries to use a canard that the GE is such a tough fight that only a warrior like her could survive. This just brings us back to square one. If Hillary is in the political equivalent of a TKO right now; and that is from a lightweight wearing pillows taped to his hand, how will she survive when the gloves come off and McCain gives her a nice roundhouse?


You can't be losing in a finals and then demand that you be given some kind of wild card to be the one to go to the championship, all the time claiming that losing proves you're the more likely to win the end game.

[democrattotheend]

1. There's really no way to know who's more electable

It's all going to depend how the campaign shakes out and what kind of a mood the country's in when we go to vote. Whether the economy, Iraq, or national security is the big issue will play a big role as well. I would argue that Clinton is strongest on the first, Obama on the second, and McCain on the third, at least in terms of voter perception. If the election is about national security both of our candidates are screwed.

My feeling is that Clinton will run a similar electoral strategy to Kerry and Gore and will win or lose 51-49. Obama will run a more expansive strategy, and depending on the national mood, he has the potential to win or lose in a landslide.

[PBS Poll-435]

3. Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, Kentucky,

Those don't look like Kerry/Gore states. In fact I can't remember the last Democrat to win them! (Actually I can, and you aren't going to like the answer)!

:rofl::rofl:

[democrattotheend]

5. The map has changed, and it was a 3-way race

And Hillary is not Bill. There's no reason to believe she will win the same states he did. Most Democratic strategists I have talked to don't see West Virginia or Kentucky as presidential states this year, and the maps were drawn back when everyone assumed Hillary would be the nominee. She might be stronger in some of those states, but Obama looks stronger out west, in Colorado and Nevada, as well as states we've narrowly won, like Washington and Oregon.

[PBS Poll-435]

11. First of all.....

LA, AR, WV, NM, MN, IA were all won with at least 50% of the vote. So --- that kind of eliminates the Perot & Nader effect.

Second, if Obama People are going to use the "Obama will carry the Democratic States that Hillary would win" argument, then WA & OR will be just fine.

People really need to get out of the Post-2000 mindset that traditionally Democratic States are lost forever. WV & OH should have NEVER been allowed to go to the Republicans.

[MattBaggins]

19. Yes and the polls for Ohio pretty much

Have McCain and Clinton neck in neck with Obama just a few points behind McCain but well within the MOE and plenty of room to grow support. Clinton is not the only one who could take back Ohio.

[PBS Poll-435]

29. Glad we agree on one point

Post 2006, it would take a DISASTER to not win OH in 08.

[SoCalDem]

25. Map- Obama

I think he can win CO, VA & the bits of NE indictaed
and with Richardson's help, NM..

This map gives him plenty of wiggle-room in case NH goes for Mccain (4EVs)... and IF PA, OH, or FL went our way, fine..but we don't "NEED" them

[Cha]

36. I don't see New Hampshire

going for mccain..they don't want a hundred years war. They went for Kerry last time and I see them going for Obama this year.

[Herman74]

61. Agreed. New Hampshire stays blue. n/t

[Herman74]

59. As someone from Pennsylvania, I am a bit offended by this map

Colorado, Nevada, and a part of Nebraska (!!) blue, and Pennsylvania red???? Come on! On the other hand, I share your optimism regarding Virginia.

[SoCalDem]

64. I'm not saying that he cannot win PA, just that all the furor

about how crucial it is..is just hype..If PA goes our way, it's in THEIR/YOUR best interest, but it's also a huge state and the money/time necessary to swing CO or small bits of NE might be easier:)

We hope that PA, & OH go blue, but more for YOUR sakes:)

[MattBaggins]

9. We know it's Bill

How about the plains and upper midwest states? How is Hillary doing there?

[PBS Poll-435]

14. Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma might be out of reach....

But MI, MN, IA, IL, ...

Should be a walk.

[NJSecularist]

18. It's an awfully big assumption that Hillary will win one of those states.

Let alone 5.

For the last time, Hillary is not Bill. Hillary is a Northeastern Democrat whose connections to the South are dubious at best.

[PBS Poll-435]

28. Hillary is from Illinois and lived most of her adult life in

Arkansas.

I didn't say she would will all of them. But it sure as hell doesn't make any sense for a Democrat to take a Sharpie marker to a third of the map and draw Xs where before Bush, people voted for the Democrat.

[MattBaggins]

33. There you go again

no one says Obama should write them off and give up.

[PBS Poll-435]

37. Ok, Ronnie Raygun!

Nice way to use one of his more notorious catch-phrases.

Sure thing. Plenty have said that he won't win the primaries in WV & KY because they are racist states. Please search for yesterday's poll threads where Hillary has at least a 25-35% lead in those states. If they write-off the primaries, they sure as hell are not looking for wins in the GE.

[Blondiegrrl]

65. West Virginia will go red in the GE. Trust me.

I know my state. Ain't no way the majority (elderly, poorly educated rural folk set in their ways) will vote for a woman or a black man.

[PBS Poll-435]

66. So, just give up?

It's lost forever? Nah...you have two Democratic Senators, and a Democratic Governor. It is attainable.

(Especially with Clinton :-))

[Blondiegrrl]

67. No need to give up. WV will go back to blue eventually. And certainly

it can't hurt to try. I didn't mean we're giving up -- just trying to paint a realistic picture.

See, my state is an ass (LOL) of a different color. While West Virginia's Democrats outnumber its Republicans, what many outsiders don't realize is that a good percentage of the state's Democrats are fairly conservative, especially on social issues. (At my newspaper we refer to them as Republicrats.) They tend to vote the "God, guns and gays" route. My prediction is the next Democrat to win WV will be a moderate, old, Baptist/Methodist white guy, and most likely a Southerner. Someone the majority of the population (the "set in their ways" folks) are comfortable with.

But you never know. Maybe hell will freeze over and we'll go blue sooner than I thought.

[Texas Hill Country]

6. she is winning the battleground and big states, he might loose blue states like MA... not good.

[mopinko]

10. loose blue states,

yeah, it could happen. :rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

15. Flappers!

All of them! Sluts!

[myrna minx]

47. LOL.

:spray:

Look at coy, coquettish, saucy Massachusetts.

[PBS Poll-435]

50. I know those types......

Thanks for the chuckles!!

:spray: :rofl:

[Texas Hill Country]

26. polling is waaaay to close in MA... should never ever ever get like that... ever.

[democrattotheend]

43. Ditto for Clinton in Connecticut

I don't know what's going on with either state...it's ridiculous.

[MattBaggins]

13. Silly nonsense

most polls show him within a point thus tied with her numbers in Florida. Save for maybe Arkansas and neighbors he can win any state she can and a few she can not.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Why are you throwing democratic states under the bus?

WV has 2 Democratic Senators, FL has 1, AR has 2, OH has 1, LA had 2 until Breaux retired...

Doesn't make any sense at all.

I bet you like to like to put together a puzzle by first throwing 1/3rd of the pieces in the trash just for an extra challenge.

[MattBaggins]

27. Why are you putting words in my mouth?

I didn't throw anyone under the bus? That is part of the meme for "Hillary is the only one who can win". Claim this as fact. Demand that only she can win certain states and then point your fingers and Obama supporters accusing us of wanting to throw those states under the bus even when we said no such thing.

Nice propaganda technique.

[PBS Poll-435]

31. Seriously,

Never mentioned a meme. I was telling you what a good Democratic Candidate can do in the GE if they are not scared of their own shadow (Kerry) or have an inept campaign head (Gore w/ Brazille.)

[rocktivity]

17. That's the DLC "big state" strategy

which, in case you haven't noticed, hasn't worked in nearly ten years.

:headbang:
rocknation

[PBS Poll-435]

24. Um....Sure....

With Clinton: LA, AR, WV, IA, MO, KY, are within reach again.

NM will go Dem no matter who is the nominee.

[donheld]

30. I think he should loose all states

Loose them and let them go. He is not going to lose Massachusetts. I know Hillary won the primary there, but that does not mean Barack cannot win there.

[crankychatter]

2. National Polls gave Obama consistent wins until Clinton went berserker

now he's coming back

limbaugh types read polls and that's why they did what they did

"Electability" is another canard... used to covertly focus fears that Americans won't elect an African-American... to curry votes.

like everything else they say, it's coldly calculated spin

[HereSince1628]

4. Well that's the cookie the Clinton camp wants inserted in our brains.

The problem with it is that it is an unsubstantiated self-serving expression of opinion disguised as wisdom.

My security system ver.54.4 is querying me as to whether this comes from a known and trusted source and whether the .exe file should be run or cancelled.

[Tesha]

7. It's rare that a post on DU actually makes me Laugh Out Loud; your headline did; thanks! (NT)

[mamalone]

8. I live in an conservative part of NY

and I cannot fully express the extent to which Hillary is despised here. Folks who haven't even seen the light of day for decades would drag themselves out from underneath their rocks to vote against her. And there would be people lining up to help them register and drive them to the polls as well. Her mere name is lightning rod.

I used to like Hillary... a lot. But even when I greatly admired her I never supported the idea of her getting the nomination, because she simply is too divisive a figure to ever win a general election. And that was before her current behavior.. before the whole Bosnia fiasco. She would lose to Elmer Fudd in a landslide these days....

[rocktivity]

12. PLAGARIST--I wrote the same things just a few hours ago!

But...(Hillary) hasn't shown that she has the ability to beat Obama...(W)hy should she expect anyone to believe that she can beat McCain?
(link)

We should pick (Hillary) over Obama because she has more experience. But we should pick her over McCain though HE has more experience?
(link)

:crazy:
rocknation

[Vinca]

16. The Clintons are shocked when someone asks Chelsea a

question about the Lewinsky affair as if the Republicans are going to put it all on the back burner if Hillary's the nominee. If Obama ever went to the dark side (he won't and that's why he's winning) and started campaigning like a Clinton, Hillary wouldn't have a chance. I wonder how many superdelegates have confronted Wolfson with this as he tries to sway them using Rev. Wright.

[Apollo11]

21. Polls show Hillary beating McCain in key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Penn ...

The same polls show McCain is level with or beating Obama in those same battleground States.

Check www.realclearpolitics.com

[MattBaggins]

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you on that

We don't really have fully enough data on that for any kind of truly meaningful picture, but sites like electoral vote that use composite scores of various polls show Obama no more than 3% behind Clinton in these "battleground states that only she can win and Obama supporters are going to throw under the bus if they don't give up now" He is within the MOE and has plenty of room to grow his support.

Electoral vote has Obama with 205 to Clintons 203. Just one more fine example of Clinton hyping up a new measurement of how the nominee should be selected and then losing in that category.

[lefty from jersey]

35. Hillary is right

Obama will not win the GE. It will not be close, I am sad to say. Hillary knows the deal and she can not speak the obvious less she ruin her national political viability. The reasons Obama can not win are obvious to anyone that can look at the FACTS with objectivity. Not Obama, not now... TOAST in the GE.

This is still the USA.

[Voice for Peace]

41. I don't agree. The decisive votes in the GE will be coming from Independents and

disaffected Republicans, people who don't like McCain but would likely vote against Hillary. This is my opinion, but based on input from many people I know personally, or have read, who like Obama. His is a whole new category of politics, and people from all corners are favorably taking note.

[Kool Kitty]

68. Yes, this is still the USA.

Just what are these FACTS that make it obvious that Obama can't win? I will look with objectivity. What is the obvious that Hillary will not speak?

[Herman74]

63. Likely just a TEMPORARY problem due to the Wright thing, which...

...will eventually fade from public memory. Until recently, most of the time Obama is ahead of Hillary in the McCain matchups.

Ask yourself the following:

What candidate has an edge vis-a-vis McCain on

1) The Presidential Debates (don't forget Iraq here)
2) Vice-President selection (General Clark (Hillary maybe?)) vs. (Sherrod Brown, Jim Webb, Richardson, (Obama perhaps?))
3) Ability to attract independents (and Republican defectors) in the long-term
4) Ability to raise cash (Definite edge to Obama)
5) Specific battleground states (Hillary starts with Arkansas as a given. Don't just consider Florida, Ohio, and Penn, but also Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, etc. And consider point 3) above)

[Marrah_G]

22. I can.

I believe in the national race Hillary will do far better then Obama would have.

So we disagree, no big deal. I certainly won't think less of you, or mock you, for choosing a different Dem then I have.

[nichomachus]

23. Is anyone forgetting the October Surprise?

Come on folks. Let's get one hand on reality here.

There will be an October Surprise. And because we don't know what it is, any talk of the general election is way premature.

The corporatists will get whatever candidate they want. If they have to kill people -- men, women, or children -- they will.

Please don't be naive. If they want McCrazy McCain in the Blight House, we will see a "terrorist" attack on US soil, a war with Iran, an assassination by yet another "crazed lone gunman," or whatever they feel it will take to swing the election the way they want.

[bluescribbler]

34. It won't take a terrorist attack to scare voters

All they have to do is ramp up the threat level to "Red". Just like they did in '04.

[lefty from jersey]

38. We did not vet this candidate, either

We let Kerry go off in quest of the Presidency without vetting his "Audie Murphy-like" tales of heroism. Three purple hearts, a silver star and not a trip to an infirmary. Not even a band aid. The swift-boaters took him apart like a doublewide in a hurricane. If we had vetted this BS hero story before the RETHUGS did, Kerry would have won. He did not need to be a hero, and we all found out he was not.

We want Obama to succeed because we like him, we are projecting onto him qualities we want him to possess as the next President. He has a long road ahead of him and every chapter of his life will be on YouTube and a 527 ad. He has some serious skeletons in the closet and the only way to minimize them is bring them up first. Obama has very serious flaws in his stories and that nutty preacher, angry wife and the Chicago political gang that put him in front of the nation are coming under scrutiny. We will live to regret this mistake if we ignore it.

Obama is merely a man from Chicago, fast-tracked by some very influencial political hacks. His meteoric rise to Presidential contender has very little to do with his own personal story.

The press is giving Obama a free pass. Tweedy is orgasmic at the mere mention of his name. NBC is so in-the-tank for Obama they have not only lost objectivity but credibility as well. Obama may be many things, but we better get the bad stuff out before we watch the RETHUGS do it for us.

[MattBaggins]

39. Oh please knock it off

Kerry like the vast majority of Vets in no way tried to "play up" his war experience to hero status. It was there as a matter of fact. He went to 'nam, returned and protested yada yada old story. The media and the swiftboaters created the strawman of him being "Audie Murphy" and then tore him apart for something he never claimed to be.

Keep up with thinking that Hillary will be immune to 527/swiftboating come the GE. She will not be the nominee but if she does, don't get angry at me when she gets smeared to hell and I just sort of shrug my shoulders.

[lefty from jersey]

51. Kerry screwed us

Kerry's story was the same one he told over the years and kept on embellishing. No one of his peers ever held him accountable because none of his peers ever served in the military. His story was BS. I was there.

Nevertheless we can not let a candidate take up the mantle of the Democratic Party without vetting the story. I know we all want to believe that Obama is a once in a generation savior but he is merely a man and a man with some serious flaws. When we recognize the flaws, accept them and accept that we can not find a savior but a good man with integrity and some flaws will do very nicely.

Wishing is not a strategy. Let's get this right.

[redqueen]

42. I *almost* can't believe you're peddling swiftboat lies here as fact.

Almost.

[lefty from jersey]

52. Get over it

The basic facts that the swift-boat guys uncovered proved Kerry to be a liar so far as his Viet Nam/Cambodia exploits were concerned. He put himself up as a hero and they shot him down. It was not necessary for Kerry to be a hero his real story was compelling. Not good enough for Kerry, he had to be a hero and we got screweed because we did not dare question him. We wanted it to be true, and it was a lie and Kerry disappeared like a trip up the Mecong into Cambodia on Christmas Eve. Enough about Kerry, I know his story, I was there.

Vet this flawed candidate and do it now. Obama has to come clean about the nutty reverend and throw him under the bus. The Rethugs are going to destroy him with his association to Reverend Wright.

[redqueen]

53. Thanks for playing.

:hi:

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

55. Tell us Tro... errr I mean Lefty which parts of Kerry's service were a lie?

None of those Swift Boat assholes where in his unit in Vietnam. But the people that did serve with him backed his version of events. I wonder why.

[suffragette]

57. You keep saying "we" and "us"

while repeating rightwing lies and smears about Kerry.

What "we" exactly do you mean? I don't know anyone on DU that believes those lies.

[Kool Kitty]

69. I think you have it backwards.

The Swift-Boaters were the liars.

[endarkenment]

32. It is all they have left. They have their talking points, they are

marshalling out their posts to the blogosphere, they are going through the motions.

[davsand]

40. Are we playing a game of "Name one of the most common lies?"

Let's see, can I name a few other outright lies commonly used?


Your check is in the mail,

I will respect you in the morning,

I did not have sex with that woman,

and last but not least, "I promise won't come in your mouth..."




Did I win the box of Rice-A-Roni?



Laura

[lefty from jersey]

54. What was the last one??

I never heard that last one before.

[BzaDem]

44. Um, any person who understands politics knows that the primary electorate is very different

than the general electorate. Hence why McGovern won the primary and had one of the most embarassing GE losses in history. It is very easy to say Hillary is more electable with a straight face. The point is debatable, but many people outside this forum agree with that point, and no one would accuse them of "not having a straight face." Too many people are blinded by Clinton hatred on this board to approach this issue objectively.

[BenDavid]

45. Latest polling..HRC wins OHIO & FLORIDA over McCain, and

Obama loses both to McCain. Go figure.....Well, I will give you a heads up here obama people....On November 4, 2008 and you are there watching the returns and the mediawhores have a projected and they all project McCain winning Pa., you can all turn your sets off right then and go to bed cause obama IF he is the nominee will have lost the white house.....Hell, if the man cannot win Pa. then he sure as hell cannot win either Florida or Ohio.....but you place HRC on the ticket, she runs the northeast and all the states there plus Pa. and then Ohio.....and later on Florida....and there my friends you have a new democratic president...HRC....

[SeaLyons]

49. You are right....

HRC is the only way to the White House.

[Tribetime]

60. I know I'm in the minority but I think they need to both be on ticket

The votes he can't get she can and vise versa

[Herman74]

62. Again, someone insulting my state, Pennsylvania. What's up with this?

Why don't they insult Wisconsin, as Bush came closer to winning that state than he did to winning mine?

The latest polls do not show the effects of the Presidential Debates now do they? Who's going to do better debating against McCain, Obama who can go full-out against McCain on a century in Iraq, or Hillary, whose attack has to be somewhat muted? And I can just see the ads about what Hillary regards as being "under fire," and what McCain regards as being "under fire." And who is going to CONTINUE to be better at raising campaign funds, Obama or Hillary (is she in debt already?).

[LulaMay]

46. Yes, she is. I think you just had a Freudian slip.

[SoCalDem]

48. Hillary for Hall Monitor..or Crossing Guard of the Month

or Liar of the year

or maybe Best Actress (new hampshire primary)

[BlooInBloo]

56. Because white folks tell us so. Durr.

[kwenu]

58. Than George W. Bush. Oh wait. He can't run anymore.

[GrandmaJones7]

70. You are clearly delusional - she WILL WIN!

Not too late folks, VOTE HILLARY- THE CANDIDATE WHO CAN WIN!!!!!!!!!!