Regarding Bush's chances in November:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

I read on a thread last night an article by John Zogby that cited one Alan Lichtman who said that Bush will most likely win in November:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=544247&mesg_id=544247&page=

Could someone please give me some info on Mr. Lichtman? Should he be trusted?

This article points our how the jobs that are coming back a
are paying 20% less in total compensation then the jobs they replaced:
http://edworkforce.house.gov/democrats/workreport.pdf

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article6282.htm

Also, with possible indictments coming in the Plame Scandal, massive deficits, weak job creation, and the Torture Scandal, can Bush do anything to win?

This is all assuming that Kerry runs a VERY STRONG campaign in the fall.

[izzie]

1. I think it is hard to beat a man in the WH. He is center stage and

a "war" president as he likes to call him self even harder, but it all has been done and could be done in Nov. Lets start with his father.

[capriccio]

2. Are you serious?

Unless Alan Lichtmaan is the love child of Jeanne Dixon and Nostradamus, I wouldn't worry too much about who he says will be winning in November.

[papau]

3. wrote a book - "Keys to the White House," that says Bush unbeatable.

http://www.iht.com/articles/121460.html
Capture gives Bush a big campaign boost

Brian Knowlton/IHT International Herald Tribune Monday, December 15, 2003
Absent a crisis, analysts see a juggernaut

WASHINGTON How big a political boost will President George W. Bush derive from the capture of Saddam Hussein? Very big indeed, according to several political scientists, who used words like "huge," "enormous" and "profound."
.
Some analysts interviewed on Sunday said that for now the capture appeared to supply a daunting lead to Bush's re-election campaign, although all added careful caveats about possible developments between now and the November elections- a devastating new terror attack, unabated violence in Iraq or a new economic slowdown. "My first reaction was, you might as well call off the election," said Alan Lichtman, author of "Keys to the White House," in which he sets out 13 predictors of the likely outcome of presidential elections. <snip>

But for the political scientists, the verdict of the day was clear. "You would much rather be in Bush's position now than to be in the shoes of any Democrat," Sabato said. And Lichtman, whose 13-point prediction system indicated months ago that Bush was likely to win re-election next year, said that now - assuming the economy remains on a healthy course - "he's unbeatable."<snip>

Some analysts interviewed on Sunday said that for now the capture appeared to supply a daunting lead to Bush's re-election campaign, although all added careful caveats about possible developments between now and the November elections- a devastating new terror attack, unabated violence in Iraq or a new economic slowdown. "My first reaction was, you might as well call off the election," said Alan Lichtman, author of "Keys to the White House," in which he sets out 13 predictors of the likely outcome of presidential elections.<snip>

[RandomUser]

9. Not exactly

I believe he did write a book that laid out "13 keys to the White House" but he DID NOT write in his book that Bush is unbeatable. Those "13 keys" developed by him are a formula for determining who will win an election. And several of those "keys" like
"whether there is a scandal or not" represent valuations that may change as the election draws near. And the valuations for some of the keys are in dispute.

The thing about the formula is that even if it's correct, the values for several of the keys are not yet fixed.

[papau]

10. Correct - his keys do not lock in for a while - so no "prediction" as yet

But in 2000 the econ model Pres predictor said Gore by 2 percent - so I am not sure an analysis of the past reaaly is much use!

[squidbro]

4. There is something far more sinister brewing

Bush and Rove will do anything they can to stay in power. Including allowing another terrorist attack in an attempt to declare martial law and declare further elections illegal.

There is nothing that the scoundrels will resort to in order to keep hold of their power.

The real question is whether we will even be allowed to have free elections.

[Speck Tater]

7. The CIA + Pentagon is pulling a "Mission Impossible" scenario

to expose Bush and Chenney and leave them standing out in the cold with their pants down. Watch it unfold like clockwork, just like the schemes on that old TV series. Tick. Tick. Tick. The pieces begin to fall into place...

(Cue M.I. Theme song)

[lancdem]

5. Lichtman is a poli sci professor who has this formula

he developed. He's basing it on that, not because he loves Bush. But according to his formula, Gore should've won bigger in 2000, so it ain't foolproof.

Even Lichtman would change his calculations if indictments came down in Plamegate (and I believe they will) and/or Torturegate got worse.

[Sliverofhope]

6. The forumla has some caveats that could spell trouble for Bush

One of them is, is there a major scandal? There hasn't been yet.

Another is, has there been a foreign policy failure? And that may yet become truthful as well.

[H2O Man]

8. There are two types of people involved

in this: the type who base their political/voting behaviors on what they feel in their heart, and those who base theirs on the information they see on tv. The people who are saying bush is a sure winner are gearing this message towards the second group. The goal is to discourage specific groups -- the young, the poor, and other groups that are marginalized by this administration. Thus, the job that is cut out for those of us on DU and related groups, is to bring a message of hope for the future -- bush is going to take a whipping come November, and it is the first step in saving the soul of America.