California Turns RED

[amborin]

alas, i've been predicting this all along

one of the US' great blue states is turning red

this is a DISASTER for Democrats

some of this is simply the demographic shifts that have been occcurring independently of any presidential politics

the inland areas of California are slowly, sometimes rapidly (depending on where, exactly, in CA one focuses), turning Republican, as the so-called "ex-urbs" keep mushrooming....

often, this means more and more horrible subdivisions, more and more malls, more and more Targets, Wallmarts, Staples, Costco, etc., where just months ago there was native habitat, farmland, open fields, or untrammeled desert.....just look at the greater Indio/Coachella area for example, to see how in a matter of mere months, gorgeous desert has been paved over with concrete and ghastly cookie cutter housing tracts

many of the occupants of these new ex-urbs are evangelicals and conservatives, or, they're folks who are undecided but very malleable and susceptible to proselytizing by the fundamentalist churches....the churches often get recruits by providing a myriad of social support functions....

anyway.....when you combine this longer-term trend with the more immediate presidental politics trends, Democrats are in big trouble

Califonia will be in play....

this is an unimaginably horrible development....

if California is trending red, can you imagine Ohio? or Missouri? or any number of other traditionally swing states?

bottom line:

i've been a staunch Hillary supporter all along

Hillary is brilliant, committed, savvy, a non-stop fighter for all the things that will help American regain its greatness and promote the interests of ordinary Americans.....

however....if she doesn't win PA by a substantial margin, I am now of the opinion that she should drop out and throw her support behind Obama

I'll vote for Obama....he's not even my second choice....

but folks, we cannot allow the rethugs to win this election

[redqueen]

1. Don't blame it on churches.

I know some idiots from CA who should be liberal but they're too fricking stupid to figure out they're being played by the M$M.

[featherman]

2. From a Californian: hahahahahahaha

Get serious

[Texas Hill Country]

31. IIRC Orange County is THE most consistently voting Red county in the country.

[NJSecularist]

38. Yet the entire Bay Area has voted consistently blue for a while. n/t

[Texas Hill Country]

42. true. very true... then how did they end up with a Republican Governor?

i mean, i know its the Terminator and all... but i am not sure that is any better?

[PoliticalAmazon]

46. He pretended to be Democrat, and even he's turning Democrat now. n/t

[PoliticalAmazon]

45. Big Woop. Overall Dem #s are increasing, GOP's are decreasing...

...in fact, the state GOP is having a hard time mounting effective campaigns because of a lack of contributions.

But even in OC, where there is a large Vietnamese ex-pat community, it is shifting, largely due to the Vietnamese business owners move towards Democrat.

[ronnykmarshall]

33. I hear ya.

There was an article in today's LA Times about GOP candidates dealing with a "hopelessly blue California".

We have a democratic majority in both houses, two democrats in the US Senate and the majority of the state wide offices are held by democrats.

I don't think we're any where near going red again for a long time.

[XemaSab]

53. Parts of California are VERY republican

Just not the state as a whole.

[PoliticalAmazon]

44. No freaking kidding. He's a liar. The truth is the exact opposite. n/t

[Greyskye]

3. Source?

Pardon me if this Californian doesn't take your word for it.

[amborin]

15. source: a reuters article today...showing 50% to 43%, dems to repubs

that's a shockingly small difference for CA

[Greyskye]

24. That's not a source, it's an opinion based on a single statistic

Good luck with that.

[crankychatter]

4. "but folks, we cannot allow the rethugs to win this election"

That's why we oppose Clinton foo

[slackmaster]

5. California has a long history of pendulum swings from GOP to Democratic and back

Here's a decent summary, sorted by party:

http://www.californiagovernors.ca.gov/h/biography/index_party.html

I doubt that McCain has a real chance this year, but the possibility of a major political swing in California is always something to bear in mind.

[PoliticalAmazon]

47. But it's moving towards Dems now. The GOP is in big trouble here. n/t

[slackmaster]

50. At the moment the GOP is losing members faster than the Democratic Party

Both parties' share of registered voters is falling, and has been for a long time. Declined To State now stands at 19.4%, and is by far the fastest-growing segment.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/15day_presprim_08/hist_reg_stats.pdf

Make no mistake, the Democratic party is in trouble here too. It appears to me our hemorrhaging has slowed due to anger with the Bush administration, but we are slipping.

[Ichingcarpenter]

6. Garbage in-Garbage out

You have no clue

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. In the alternative:

[AlCzervik]

7. Bwwwaaaa! You are so wrong that a device to measure such wrongness has not been invented yet.

wow try and read the news paper or watch local california news.

[ps1074]

14. high five

:)

[SoCalDem]

8. Um......how can I say this politely?

[AlCzervik]

9. thats very polite.

:thumbsup:

[EFerrari]

10. They've been working on turning CA for years now.

But, it won't happen. We kicked out the crooked Thug Secretary of State and got a good, brave Democrat. If our votes get counted, and they will be, CA will stay blue.

[ronnykmarshall]

35. God I LOVE our SOS!!!

She's my favorite dem in the state along Babs the Boxer!

[Greyskye]

11. This says otherwise:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election

Thursday, April 17, 2008

In California, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 50% to 43%. That's an improvement for McCain who trailed Obama by fifteen points in March.

If Hillary Clinton is able to come back and win the Democratic nomination, she holds a slightly smaller lead over McCain, 47% to 42%. Clinton led McCain by seven points a month ago.

[Exultant Democracy]

26. Thats right!

[Barack_America]

12. McCain has vowed to NOT to run with a pro-choice VP.

That alone should keep California blue.

[cali]

13. stop worrying

California:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

Clinton 47%
McCain 42%

That's new from Rasmussen. And this is in the midst of a contentious primary while we don't have a nominee, and they do.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

16. Seems a little silly to post your feelings as if they are fact

Maybe you could back up your post with some evidence.

[bluestateguy]

17. Obama will be fine in CA

Every poll shows that the Hispanics in California who voted for HRC will vote for him in November.

Besides, McCain won't have the money to go on the air in California either.

[YOY]

18. What? How? Who? Huh?

n/t

[BlooInBloo]

19. Fail.

EDIT: Fine, fine. I'll abide by the rules.

[sudopod]

20. Hey LOOK

An OP about things that will never happen!

[Nitrogenica]

22. Some proof?

[woolldog]

23. You don't know anything about California

I live in California and it is NOT turning red.

[NJSecularist]

25. California may be in the midst of a demographic shift.

But a switch to the Republicans won't happen this election, and it probably won't happen the next few elections. The Democrats have strongholds in Almeada County, Los Angeles County, San Francisco County and Santa Clara County, and as long as that doesn't change, the Democrats will continue to win California.

[ronnykmarshall]

37. A lot of people from the LA area and SF ..

are moving to areas like Bakersfield and Sacto because of lower house prices.

I would LOVE to see the day when my parents in Bakerfield could have a democrat in congress. They have had many of the WORST puke reps for years.

[NV Whino]

27. Not bloody likely.

[TML]

28. Thank Hillary For This

According to Rasmussen (source: TPM Election Central) polls, the race in CA is tightening:

Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Clinton 47%, McCain 42%

If Hillary wins, I DO predict the "elitists" losing their homes to foreclosure, their jobs and Latinos being told to get the f**k out of the country will flock to the person who is making the most sense on these topics.

McCain-Kennedy immigration bill. Who co-authored it? McCain
Bankruptcy bill? Who voted against it? Neither
The Iraq war? Who voted for it? Both of them.

You should be worried if Hillary steals the nomination. People here in SoCal will remember these things on November 4th, and I've said for a long time if someone had a choice between a real Republican and a Republican light, then "typical white people" will go for their God and guns.

I live in a small SoCal town and there's a LOT of Hillary Haters™ here that vote straight-line Republican. I've been here over a decade and I have YET to see a Clinton sticker on a car bumper.

[terrell9584]

29. California was always a Republican state

It only became Democratic in the 1990s, due partially to the popularity of Clinton and primarily to the fact that enough Mexican-Americans got the vote and as such were able to increase the Democratic margins in Los Angeles County, which counts for a third of the state's population. It wasn't that long ago that Pete Wilson was re-elected on a "screw the Mexican" platform.

That being said, I somehow doubt California will be won by McCain, though he will have the strongest campaign for a GOP candidate in the state in two decades, and I can see Nader taking some votes in the SF area, whether it's enough to shift the outcome is anyone's bet, though Clinton is probably a stronger candidate in California, if we just look at the fact she did win L.A. County.

[NJSecularist]

30. How is what Los Angeles County did indication of anything in the GE?

Kerry won LA County 63-36%. I would expect either Obama or Clinton to run up the same margins, regardless of how Hillary did in LA County in the primaries.

[terrell9584]

40. all politics function on a baseline

There are the straight line voters for each party, people who punch a straight ticket (except in Louisiana where you can't do such a thing), the number in between that consists of where the elections are actually fought or, to put it another way, where people aren't mindless robots and actually think about their choices.

My guess is, Los Angeles County operates on a higher Democratic baseline than California at large, however, I think Schwarzenegger managed to win L.A. Schwarzenegger is not McCain, but an example I brought up to bring a tactical point. Namely, evidence has shown that Obama has not done well in Hispanic districts, I don't know how this translates to a general, but it is a point to be looked at. As I said, I doubt California could turn, but, like anything it is possible, especially considering there have been elections in San Francisco where the Green candidate outpolls the Republican, and the DP in California relies on a certain turnout in S.F. and area to count for its baseline.

[Arugula Latte]

32. Oh my gawd. What a ridiculous post.

But, hey, thanks for the laugh.

[varelse]

34. What do you have to back up this claim?

As a Californian living in a district that went overwhelmingly to Obama, and in a state that successfully repulsed a Guiliani-sponsored scheme to hand 40% of our electoral votes to the Republican candidate in the GE, I would like to know where you got your information.

[reflection]

36. Although i have been wrong before

I just can't believe that. You could throw a dozen polls in my face and I still wouldn't believe it. It's one of those things that would have to happen for me to ever believe it, just from a historical trend standpoint. Hope you're wrong.

[Raine]

39. This native Californian is ROFLMFAO!

:rofl: NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

[Yurovsky]

41. Yep, and the Pope is converting to Islam ...

and W is going to learn how to speak the Queen's English.

That's a real knee-slapper ... :rofl:

[PoliticalAmazon]

43. You're nuts. Dems have continuously increased their numbers in CA, while GOPers...

...have not grown in numbers.

Even in the conservative farming area strongholds, there is a shift towards Democrat and Independent. The Democrats have been far more supportive of agriculture here than the Republicans.

You are completely misstating what is the reality here, and it FIGURES you are a "closet" Hillary fan. She's a liar, too.

[Ichingcarpenter]

48. The California GOP is Bankrupt.... really they are Bankrupt -$$$$$$$$$

http://www.calnews.com/archives/contreras352.htm
from a Republican site;


The California Republican Party--Insolvent Financially and Bankrupt with California Voters


You have to chuckle when you read in an AP story, “Major GOP donor says state party in trouble” today, the bottom line of which is that the party that claims to be one of fiscal restraint and financial management is in debt—only able to keep its doors open due to a $3 million loan of one very wealthy individual. And he’s not happy with the direction of the party. The money is just the tip of the iceberg—there’s a rotting mess below with the party not heeding the recommendation of its highest elected official, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, to moderate its policies.

The GOP’s financial problems in the biggest state of the union is not a new story. Last year on June 30, the party has $4.4 million in debt and only $1 million in the bank. Back in August when the loans were made, the chair of the party acted as if he had hit a home run, and was quoted as saying: "I am doing great. I had a $3 million week this week. It's a great development for our party and really helps us move into the fall and do what we need to do for the 2008 campaign."

Read a bit further in today’s AP story, and you come across this passage that does not presage well for California Republicans in this Fall’s elections:


From a progressive site: http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/02/the_california_55.html

[rufus dog]

49. WHAT! PULL YOU'RE HEAD OUT

As a Californian, living in Orange County, I call Bullshit.

Check out the 06 elections and the House seats picked up by Dems in previously RED districts.

True the "exburbs" in the inland empire and Coachella Valley went Red in 04. But go check out the foreclosure rates in those areas (some of the highest in the Nation!) Dare I say these people might be a bit "bitter" with what is going on.

As for the OC, my area was almost 70% repub in 04. I will be shocked if they hit anything over 65% in 08. In 04 life was good, go pull out 100k from your house and party on! Woo Hoo BUSH. Now they are trying to figure out how to pay the bills.

[meow mix]

51. ill have some of whatever your smoking

must be good stuff

[XemaSab]

52. Inland California has been red for decades

That being said, growth in the inland areas doesn't mean the state as a whole is turning red.

[2rth2pwr]

54. If Barack is nominated he will do worse than McGovern.

Hillary 2008

[knixphan]

55. Roving L.A. reporter

...still looking for conservatives...

(besides Michael Eisner)

...will keep you updated :)

Of course there is more 'geographic red' in CA

LA and SF have held it down for blue since forever...

BIG BLUE SPOTS.

[WinkyDink]

56. Please.