140 lead with 566 left

[mkultra]

Obama has a 140 delegate lead with only 566 delegates left. this means that Hillary must win 75% of the remaining vote to tie Obama.

I seriously doubt that the supers will go against the voters.

[jsamuel]

1. what is his lead if you include FL and/or Michigan?

[ShortnFiery]

2. FL & MI will NOT be counted. It's called "The Rules" - Learn them, Know them, Live them. eom.

[jsamuel]

3. but what is his lead if you do include them?

[mkultra]

14. Dont know and dont care

[SoCalDem]

17. a purple unicorn with a red toupee'

and cowboy hat :)

[mohc]

20. If the delegations that FL and MI want to send to the convention are seated

Then the lead is 21 delegates with superdelegates counted, or 50 among pledged delegates alone.

[gcomeau]

4. Nobody knows...

...Florida and/or Michigan haven't held valid primaries to include.

[jsamuel]

5. well then what is his lead if you include the invalid primaries?

[tekisui]

10. Still a lead.

For your strange game, he'd lead by 16. But, that point is moot. And, you know it.

[jsamuel]

13. I just asked a question.

thanks for the answer, I really didn't know what it was.

[Oregone]

12. What would be the count if you include my family reunion's straw poll?

Its just as valid.

[gcomeau]

Why not ask me what his lead is...

..if we include people voting for Hillary by text messaging their election boards while you're at it?

I mean, if we're engaging in exercises in counting votes that we know don't count why not go all out? Obama wasn't even on a Michigan ballot for cripes sake, there is exactly zero chance that those results will ever count. You're wasting everyone's time with this ridiculousness. If they do seat the delegates it will not be by the results of that "primary". that's a done deal. Who do you think you're fooling with this anyway?

[hayu_lol]

7. You may be counting chickens before they are hatched yet...

We won't know about Texas until after June 7th. And by that time, we may have some resolution of the problems caused by Michigan and Florida.

Either can win at this point. Tied!

[Zachstar]

Time to stop talking about FL and MI

50/50 or seated by the way Obama wants to at the Convention. They no longer are going to be allowed to scum the democratic party anymore.

[Oreo]

6. At least 20 with FL and MI

And that's not counting the 55 MI uncommitted delegates for Obama.

[jsamuel]

11. thanks for answering

[Oreo]

15. No problem

You can get all the numbers here:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com

It's on the left side.

[Oregone]

9. No idea...theyd have to have an official primary first for us to know.

right?

[ericgtr]

16. Wait until his lead is impossible to catch then seat them

Strategically, that's the smart move. Once she knows it won't help her, she won't give a flying shit about the people's "rights".

[Jersey Devil]

21. Probably about 50, give or take maybe 10

you give her 55% of MI and Obama zero, which will never happen no matter how they are seated, and that is with a 20 point Hillary win in PA, 65% Hillary wins in Ind, KY, PR, Montana, SD, and Obama getting 55% in Oregon and NC, all those predictions being very generous to Hillary and much less than expected for Obama.

Show me the realistic scenario where she can win and I'll hear you out:

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[jsamuel]

23. I am not a Clinton supporter.

I just wanted to know. However, I do like to point out things on one side or the other. I do lean toward Clinton over Obama though, but not by much. Probably half the reason I do is because the blog sphere is too pro-Obama for me to be comfortable with it.

[mohc]

8. Not quite

If the lead were 140, Clinton would need to win only 62.4% of the delegates to tie.

566 - 140 = 426
426 / 2 = 213
213 + 140 = 353

If Clinton won 353 of the remaining delegates, and Obama 213, that would net her 140 delegates and make it a tie.

353 / 566 = 62.4% (62.36749116607773852 to be more precise...)

Anyway, Obama's current lead is 161 among pledged delegates alone, which is the 566 number you are talking about so in fact she needs about 64.2% to tie among pledged delegates.

[SoCalDem]

18. First she would need to morph into a human being and become likable

not gonna happen at this late date :)

[mkultra]

19. oops, your right

140 is 24% of the remaining delegates. So yes, 62% is the correct answer.


Thanks. Seems more possible.

[mohc]

24. Depends on what you mean by *more* possible.

How many states has Clinton received more than 64% of the delegates in? Just one: Arkansas. In order to get 64% of the delegates she will have to have well over that in some states because she is likely to lose NC, OR, MT, and SD. Getting less than 50% of the delegates in those states will mean she will most likely need over 70% of the delegates in the states she wins. Basically so long as Obama is contesting the election he will get enough of the remaining delegates to win. At this point the most likely scenario for a Clinton win does not involve her getting 64% of the remaining delegates, but 90%+ after an Obama drop out causes by some crazy unforeseen scenario. If Obama is in the race, he will win.

[rinsd]

22. You're mixing up figures.

Obama has a 164 pledged delegate lead.

That is the only measure to use when comparing upcoming elections for pledged delegates.

[mkultra]

25. i got my pledged delegaet infor from real clear polotics

[rinsd]

26. So did I. You just quoted the wrong set of figures.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[mkultra]

27. boy, i screwed that all up

thanks


so the actual percentile needed of the remaining pledged looks like 64%