A Prediction - Pennsylvania Goes To Obama

[demwing]

I may be eating these words a week from now, but thats OK. I've had worse things happen to me :)

But here's why I call it the way I call it:

• The Debate
  Yeah, we all know that neither of the candidates fared as well as their supporters hoped. But what played so solidly to Obama last night was how the MSM discredited themselves by this sham. Now, when voters hear about "bittergate" they'll remember the debate, and how much they disliked the three ring circus. Obama didn't overcome, but lucky for him the MSM accidentally fell on the sword. Point to Obama
  
  
• False Cross Over
  Limbaugh Conservatives are playing a game they call Operation Chaos, where they switch registration to vote in Democratic primaries, for Hillary, in order to pick the candidate they see as easiest to defeat. It worked in Texas-sort of-as Hillary won the primary in that state.But Texas does not have party registration, and Pennsylvania does. The last day to register as a Democratic Party member, and thus be able to vote in our primary, was March 24. I'm betting that the polls in PA are picking up some of that Limbaugh gaming, but that it will NOT transfer to the voting booth because of the registration process.
  
  
• The Big MO
  Momentum. Unsure/uncommitted voters often follow the flow of momentum. Obama has it - Big Time. Hillary does not. This will tip the scale, in the final days, to Obama, just enough to put him over the mark.
  

Again, I call it by two points for Obama. Your mileage may vary. :)

[MadBadger]

1. You're in good company...me.

[demwing]

68. Then here's to you!

:toast:

[LSparkle]

2. I'm hoping for Iowa deja-vu ...

and agree with all of your points.

[ieoeja]

48. Sorry to burst your bubble.

But I'm pretty certain she will not finish THIRD in Pennsylvania as she did in Iowa.

:evilgrin:

[LSparkle]

51. :evilgrin: right back at you!

It's just the similarity of the expectations ... She had the undefeatable
machine in Iowa, no one gave him a chance, etc., and then -- seemingly
out of nowhere -- GOBAMA!

[demwing]

55. Check out this story!

Its a month or so old, and fun to compare and contrast to the polls currently.

Its called Is Pennsylvania the Next Iowa? Not Quite"

Although the blogger calls PA for Clinton, he makes some interesting comments:

Pennsylvania also has a much higher non-white population, approximately 14.3 percent, compared to just 5.4 percent in Iowa. This should advantage Obama, as the difference in non-whites is largely comprised in the black demographic (10.7 percent in PA, 2.5 percent in IA), compared to Hispanics (4.2 percent in PA, 3.8 percent in IA), or Asians (2.4 percent in PA, 1.6 percent in IA).

This one is a duzy:

Clinton, however, has been doing better in the Democratic primaries among less educated Americans, and Pennsylvania has a notably lower number of high school graduates (81.9 percent) than does Iowa (86.1 percent).

So Clinton gets the Dumb vote? LOL! That's condescending. I bet people in PA read that and got bitter.

And finally:

All this adds up to an exciting race, to be sure, although the first poll conducted after Clinton’s big victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island on Tuesday, finds the New York Senator with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania: 52 to 37 percent (69% likely voters, polled by Rasmussen on March 6th). The Keystone State is certainly being billed as Clinton's to lose.

[Eurobabe]

3. I've believed this for weeks. Slim margin, but he will win PA.

[Happyhippychick]

5. I'm not sure he will win but I definitely agree that if she wins it will be by a slim margin.

But I hope I'm wrong and he blows it out of the park.

[Zachstar]

38. Because of party rules regarding delegate rewards if he keeps it within 5 he may have a net delegate

or two!!

[Jed Dilligan]

4. That would be sweet, but I'm staying mum until it happens.

And girding myself for a long, hot summer.

[powergirl]

7. I, too, am girding myself

But this would be great if it were true. :)

[ClayZ]

6. Visualize

Obama Pennsylvania


K and R

[Eurobabe]

14. I'm visualizing as fast as I can!!!

:P

[azmouse]

8. Pennsylvanians know they have the power to end this next week

by voting for Obama.

Then we can focus on defeating McSame.

[Zachstar]

I hope they do it! This destructive race needs to end and an Obama win will likely do it.

[AllentownJake]

9. I don't know

Remember I'm an Obama supporter

1) Debate I think is a split decision. We'll see what the results are later.

2) Limbaugh was aware of our registration date and was playing operation chaos on the air back than. Switching your registration is a slight inconvienence in PA so only the most loyal Limbaugh listeners probably made the deadline. 68,000 GOP members switched to become democrats in PA out of 400,000 new democrats. No one is polling these people because no one knows who these people are. The campaigns don't even know to target them for GOTV or calling and canvasing unless they are part of the 150,000 collected by the Obama campaign.

3) I say its neutral at this point. Obama's leading but Hillary has a lot of traction here. This is the oldest population in the country. She has large numbers of her target demographic here and the political machine of most mayors (Philly doesn't count because all the ward leaders gave Nutter the finger and went with Obama. In Philly the ward leaders are more important than the Mayor).

To be honest. I can't say what is going to happen here with any guess.

[demwing]

12. Point by point

1 - I don't claim Obama won the debate, I say the MSM screwed it up so badly that they're discredited, and so by association, so is the spin they're trying to cast on "bittergate." Obama doesn't win the debate, but he benefits from the mess by default.

2 - You say that no one is polling these people because we don't know who they are, and I agree. They merge right into the masses during polling. Thus, they artificially inflate the polls. But because switching is a "slight inconvenience" and polling is practically a passive sport, I still assert that these numbers will NOT translate into Hillary votes. Too much work.

3 - There are MANY graphs floating in this forum that show Hillary's support level, or diminishing, while Obama's support rockets. If someone has a link, please provide. But I'm thinking that even hard-core Hillary supporters would cede momentum to Obama.

[PBS Poll-435]

13. ...

[rox63]

18. Your chart goes into June

What, are part of the Psychic Friends Network or something? :crazy:

[PBS Poll-435]

22. Oops...you weren't supposed to see that one...

Not :crazy:

Just a joke.

[ima_sinnic]

26. LOL!

:kick:

[demwing]

29. Ok. that was funny.

Thanks for the smile.

[PBS Poll-435]

32. :-) nt

[Hawkeye-X]

44. So if Obama goes back to 51% tomorrrow, the trend would be

opposite. Get the drift? He's been riding between 49% and 51% for the last few days as evidenced by the poll, Hillary has not gotten anything higher than 43% since April 7th.

Hawkeye-X

[PBS Poll-435]

52. You have heard of jokes, right?

They sometimes make people lighten-up.

[Hawkeye-X]

63. Yeah yeah, but I don't know if you were serious or not

But I'll take it as a joke so :hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

67. It is

HUGHLY SERIES around here today!!11!11!!

Just trying to lighten the mood. :-)

[AllentownJake]

15. I've been told

To keep expectations low...that is what I'm doing.

[Alii]

86. In re point 1

All of the MSN surveys, regarding who won the debate, overwhelmingly voted Obama. I for one think that it was actually more a vote for a debate that was not a debate...a protest. However, this would probably still favor Obama. Was the debate not in Hillary's "backyard" and was there not a major protest, against the moderators, from the audience at the end?

Again, again, again...It's the MATH ______! C'mon Pennsylvanians, end the chaos...it is over. Obama will be, IS, the candidate for the democratic party.

[Phillycat]

20. "In Philly the ward leaders are more important than the Mayor"

I guarantee you 75% of the population of Philadelphia has no idea who their ward leader is. Your statement is completely false. And I live here - you don't.

[AllentownJake]

34. How many doors

Is Michael Nutter going to be knocking on?

[Tribetime]

10. if your right I'll toast a beer to your post, maybe 2-3-4-5

[demwing]

11. Add to this the stories coming out about PA SWITCHING to Obama

I'm nervously enthusiastic, by I think that in the week following the primary, many people will look back and point to the signs, and say "Yeah, should have seen it coming!"

[rox63]

16. Off to the Greatest page

I hope your predictions are right. :)

[demwing]

30. Thanks!

Like I say, I may have to eat these words, but I've eaten worse things! Still, right now, the taste is pretty sweet...

[Phillycat]

17. Only an Obama supporter would think getting pummeled in a debate = a primary win.

[Hepburn]

25. Dang....I forgot to put you on IGNORE...

...click...and, oh, here is a faux :hug: for you just like the ones you were passing out to me.

~~click~~

Ah, the pause that refreshes!

[Phillycat]

31. Man, I'll miss you. I don't know how I'll go on.

Sniff. :hug:

[Alexander]

59. Don't worry, you can always keep hate alive!

[Zachstar]

42. Um they both got pummeled

And Clinton lost big time by admitting Obama could win against McCain. Effectively ending any chance for the supers overtruning the pledged.

[demwing]

49. I'm not sure you read my OP

I think you're reacting to the bulleted headlines, without digging into the support paragraphs.

But hey, that's cool. How hard you try is your dog. You own it, walk it, and feed it, and you can clean up the mess.

[Bensthename]

19. I TOTALLY AGREE and also.

last few days polls have been trending toward Obama.. And with 5 days to go and 1 point down... Well, you are right.. And he is dumping tons more money into commercials right now then Clinton. And better ones I might add..

[Political Heretic]

21. A single digit clinton "win" is an Obama win. Under 5 points is a Clinton defeat. If he wins,

its over.

[Yukari Yakumo]

37. Anything under a 20 point loss to HRH HRC is a win for Obama

Among the remaining contests, PA has the most pledged delegates up for grabs with about a quarter of all remaining PD's.

HRH HRC needs somewhere around 63% of PA's PD's to even dream of catching up to Obama in the delegate count. Anything less make the climb even steeper than it already is.

[demwing]

43. I agree, and I hear the call to lower expectations

But I just can't do it!

I see writing on the wall, and it's all Obama in PA.

[Texas Hill Country]

23. hmmm... interesting theory.

[AlinPA]

24. It will be very close. If it goes "down to the wire", the talk will be about how far ahead

Clinton was and how he closed the gap. I don't know how for sure the delegates are proportioned in each district, but it could be possible that it is close to a wash.

[Ian_rd]

27. Good arguments, but the odds look pretty bad.

I think Hillary's lead will slip to about 5-7 points. But she'll win and the media will spin it as a sea-change across the nation in favor of Clinton.

[demwing]

33. Hey, a few months back...

Hillary = Inevitability.

Change is the only constant, and since Obama is the candidate of change, I guess that makes Obama the constant in this equation. :)

[Ian_rd]

35. I remember the "inevitability" characterization vividly. In fact, it pretty much had me fooled.

Back then the media was in a kind of adoration mode for Hillary as a fait accompli. And now the infotainment media has an interest in keeping the primary going for as long as possible as it's good for ratings. They are assisting Clinton, will spin in her favor, for as long as they can keep her campaign alive. I predict Obama will win despite this, and then the media will settle into their old routine of taking cues from the right-wing on what to say and how to frame issues.

[AlinPA]

28. This weekend, I look for Clinton to start screaming "He's a Muslim, he's a Muslim"

Whatever it takes.

[Zachstar]

36. It would be wonderful!! But I just don't think it will happen.

Tho the fact that we are even talk about it again shows that Obama won when you talk about turn a HUGE blowout for Clinton into a near Obama win!

[demwing]

41. And thats the reason I won't mind if it I'm wrong

Worse things could happen than Obama NEARLY winning PA.

But still, I'm not just gushing enthusiastically. I made my points, and I stick by the logic. :)

[Zachstar]

47. Fair enough.

We worked hard we did what we could and withstood the worst crap that could be thrown. So we get to hope for victory!

[Avalux]

39. I've been predicting this for a couple of weeks now.

Got a lot of family in PA and from what they're telling me, I think he has a great chance to pull an upset. Two points sounds good to me. :D

[Bensthename]

40. Polls are even and Obama is dumping more cash into commercials, and better ones

I might add.. With 5 days left and Obama's media blast, since he has the money, he will put her away.. The writing is on the wall for an Obama win.

[Zachstar]

45. I am counting more on the train trip.

I think that will resonate with voters and help turn the tide.

Tho please dont "Expect" an Obama win! Clinton can just as easily win by 20.

[yasmina27]

46. I agree - personal observation

On the way to work today. Suburbs of Pittsburgh. I counted 29 signs for Obama, 2 for Hillary. I think the support, at least here in the Pittsburgh area, is stronger than people realize.

[Zachstar]

50. I have been wondering about Pittsburgh,,

I have heard a small rumor that Pittsburgh MAY go to Obama. What chances do you give?


If I remember right Pittsburgh is also a delegate rich area so if Obama wins there he could win by delegate net gain!

[yasmina27]

60. I think

and this is just my gut feeling, that Obama's going to take Pittsburgh, and some of the surrounding areas handily. Where I work, the Obama supporters outnumber the Hillary supporters at least 2 - 1. The Hillary supporters are the over-50 females. One of my colleagues was afraid to mention the primaries to me until I said I supported Barack. He figured that I would be with the other female voters (though I'm 40-something, but am friends with the others).

I really do think that there is a lot more support for BO than is showing up in polls.

[Zachstar]

66. I hope that is the case!! It would be GREAT if Obama won Phily and Pittsburgh!

[tekisui]

53. In regards to Operation Chaos. Limpballs is hinting at sending his

airhead followers to Obama. He has yet to "give the command". He's sucha blow hard.

[Zachstar]

69. He does that and he gets disowned by the republican party.

I know he supposedly Hates McCain but he isn't that stupid.

[demwing]

70. Nah, Rush sees the writing on the wall as well!

And wants to take all the credit for himself.

[knixphan]

54. O's commercials ARE better...

[Lucky 13]

56. Not for nothin', but I also predicted this weeks ago.

I do think he will pull it out. People are done with the bullshit. Done with lies. Done with incessently pecking at the candidates. Done with ignoring the REAL issues that are keeping all of us down.

Hillary represents the politics of the PAST. Obama represents hope for a better FUTURE. America has been CRYING OUT for change and I think Pennsylvanians have gotten the message.

My confidence was further bolstered when, I believe it was on Monday, both Barack and Hillary spoke to Union workers in Pittsburgh. Barack came out and gave his speech. And when he cited the "bitter" comments, people CHEERED. Hillary spoke moments later. When she cited the "bitter" comments she was literally BOOED and HECKLED. BY UNION WORKERS. I was amazed, but it gave me great hope for an unexpected victory.
(If you want to see the video comparison for yourself, go here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5529677&mesg_id=5529677)

He's truly something special. He IS teflon. They keep throwing shit, but nothing NOTHING sticks. Unlike in previous debates though, he wasn't as cool and witty as usual. He needs to improve how he RESPONDS to the attacks. I thought he looked a little weak and hesitant last night, but so would I if I figured out 30 minutes in that the whole thing was rigged against me.

We have this thing in hand, but we must not get complacent. We have to seal the deal. A win in PA would do just that.

Has everybody donated what they can? What are some other ways we can help with PA?

[jenmito]

57. I would add his up-coming bus tour to your list. n/t

[Zachstar]

58. I thought it was a train tour?

[jenmito]

61. He's taking a bus tomorrow to a couple stops and then I THINK taking the train.

OR taking the bus ALONG the train line. Not sure.

[Zachstar]

64. I just hope he gets started soon.

He was in NC again today and I hope from this point forward he works on the Pittsburgh area and deep into PA!

[jenmito]

85. He starts tomorrow-for 5 day! All through PA, including Pittsburgh!

That's a reason why I think he'll do much better than people think. Here's a link with all the info: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5531519

[Alexander]

62. The new polling averages are Clinton 47.4%, Obama 42%.

It's tightening. I think Pennsylvania will be fairly close.

[demwing]

65. Polling Averages?

Could you share a link? I'd like to see that.

[Alexander]

74. Sure. Pollster.com's Pennsylvania poll average.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Alii]

87. Also...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

And click on Pennsylvania Dems on your left. Or, check out the URL below.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Interesting?

Hillary's INTRADE stock his risen...slightly.

[Mezzo]

71. I fully expect BO to carry PA.

[Zachstar]

72. Don't assume that! Seriously common we need to expect a loss and work on a GREAT may!

Please don't forget to phonebank!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[DemGa]

73. Didn't they say the same thing about Ohio??

[demwing]

77. Didn't "they" also say Hillary was inevitable?

Didn't they say should would win Texas?

Didn't they say she would win Iowa?

And that this would be sewn up for her on Super Tuesday?

[TankLV]

75. good one!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

oh, you're SERIOUS?!?!

ONLY IN YOUR DREAMS!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[demwing]

78. Yes it was

Thanks for the graphic! Those are either Obama supporters laughing all the way to the nomination, or Hillary supporters, who aren't sure why they're laughing, because their candidate's campaign is anything but funny. ;)

[eridani]

76. Probably Clinton by 5% n/t

[PM7nj]

79. I got my hopes up for Ohio and Texas...

I'm not going through that again. I refuse to believe he will win PA, if he does, then I will be one happy guy... but he won't :evilgrin:

[demwing]

80. But he did win Texas

So your hope was justified. :)

[PM7nj]

81. I know

I wanted him to win the primary and popular vote too. Damn you, Rush Limpball...

[Orsino]

82. This hope thing must be contagious.

You're hoping BIG.

[Alii]

88. If HOPE is contagious...

how 'bout starting an epedemic?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

83. One other thing to consider: the pollsters call only land-line phones.

A lot of people now have only cell phone service, and they are mostly younger people -- not Clinton's demographic.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

84. I think Clinton may 'win' it by 5% but Obama will get more than enough delegates?