I'm calling Indiana for Barack Obama.

[L. Coyote]

Looking at which counties remain to report, it looks like Obama by a close margin.

Someone has to be the first to call it. :rofl:

I'm also calling the November election for Obama/Gore.

Someone has to be the first to call it. :rofl:

[tekisui]

1. You beat me to it.

:toast:

[Guaranteed]

2. No, don't do that.

We're just watching, and you're creating expectations. Don't.

[Fearless]

3. He must win by 55% in those counties... here's to hoping...

At least make it too close to care.

[spanone]

4. k&r

[BlooInBloo]

5. That's the kiss of death.

(but I'm still crossing my fingers)

[ErinBerin84]

6. I'm an Obama supporter, but I still

think it will go to Clinton. Bad luck to call it at this point.

[Rosemary2205]

7. It's OFFICIAL! woohooo!

[L0oniX]

8. WOOOOOT

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[Tatiana]

9. LOL

:rofl:

[tridim]

10. I'm calling CBS dumb-asses. nt

[Donkeykick]

11. Are you serious?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN

Obama's counties are the dark blue, by the way.

[Nexus7]

16. You're asking if they're serious?

Next you'll be asking for world peace.

Another industrial belt state lost by Obama.

[cascadiance]

31. Um... that white NON-reported county in upper left corner is Gary, Indiana (aka East Chicago)

And That county by itself might have the same distribution and quantity of votes that Indianapolis has, which already has a bigger difference going to Obama there than is the difference in the whole state.

And believe me, if you've been to Gary, a lot of people will know that it probably has an even larger per-capita African American population than even larger segments of Chicago itself. I think the numbers will be huge for Obama when they come in.

[L. Coyote]

20. Yes, for several reasons.

One reason, the counties remaining to report, are likely to give Obama a big edge.
Second, the number of early voters and who they are likely to be, educated and young voters.
Traditional voters re likelier to go to the polls.

BTW, I still have not picked a candidate myself!!

[Pastiche423]

28. But you do have your paper ballot already, right?

I keep staring at mine and the only thing I am certain of, is that I am voting for Steve Novick for senator.

I can't get passed Obama saying he would vote to confirm Betrayus.

[L. Coyote]

33. I'm in Montana now. And on the move.

The special news report on Obama today on the "creationists" radio station was interesting, following on the awesome andvery long report that all the coal in the world was created by Noah's flood. Damn, those creatons were effusive about Obama. Go figure???

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. All the coal was created by the flood?

My lord, that is hilarious

[tishaLA]

12. I'm thinking it will be a loss by ~1%

which is a victory as far as I'm concerned after these past few weeks.

[Guaranteed]

22. Yup. nt

[WeDidIt]

13. If CBS can call early, L. Coyote can call early!

LOL

:rofl:

[L. Coyote]

14. Have I ever been wrong before?

:rofl:

[Raine]

15. Don't jinx it but

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[IronLionZion]

17. Oh yeah I can't wait until they report Gary

:rofl:

[David Zephyr]

18. Is Gary really still out? I'm stuck away from the TV.

Let me know. Gobama!

[JBoy]

24. County-by-county results here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#INDEMMAPPRIMARY1

[L. Coyote]

34. Thanks for that.

[stop the bleeding]

36. Thank you

:beer:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

41. In particular, the Indiana county results tables at these URLs are crucial:

100 percent of Lake County (Gary, Hammond) still out at 11:10 pm Eastern:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=INDEMPRIMARY5

29 percent of Porter County:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=INDEMPRIMARY7

And college-dominated Monroe County is at URL
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=INDEMPRIMARY6 .

On MSNBC, Russert said a few minutes ago that 220,000 votes still were out in Indiana, and the screen crawl showed Obama down 40,000. These 3 Obama-leaning counties seem to hold most of the answer to the victory question.

[Iceburg]

19. This Hillary supporter thinks Obama will win Indiana too

20% of the vote left to count (> 200,00 votes) and most of the uncounted votes strongly favours Obama.

[L. Coyote]

26. Gary and Evanston will really change this one!

[Iceburg]

29. Agree100%. Congrats to Obama from the Hillary team./nt

[shrub chipper]

56. If they count votes from Evanston,

then the results WILL be challenged since it is in Illinois.

[L. Coyote]

62. Ooops, Evansville. Thanks!!

[Guaranteed]

21. I think the Obama campaign is right- they're just going to be a bit short.

But it will be close enough to basically be a tie.


And he destroyed her in NC.

It's over.

[ErinBerin84]

23. I'm still thinking that it will go to Clinton, but hopefully it will be close.

Man, if he did win it though.....what would Joe Scarborough say? "It's amazing that she was able to keep it so close, considering she was OUTSPENT 3 to 1!"

[sunnystarr]

27. lol my sentiments exactly

[Tatiana]

25. Lake Co. not reporting until 11 PM EST now. ARRRGHHH!!!! n/t

[L. Coyote]

30. Lake Co. demographics

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/18/18089.html

Comparing Lake vs. Indiana.

Black persons, percent, 2006 26.1% vs. 8.9%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin 13.9% vs. 4.8%
Black-owned firms 11.7% vs. 3.2%

[earthlover]

32. Make that midnight Eastern time, according to MSNBC

[UndertheOcean]

35. don't jinx it

[Jed Dilligan]

37. Don't want to jinx it but the demos support you.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/18/18089.html

[L. Coyote]

38. See the margins where Obama won too!

[L. Coyote]

39. 84% reporting = 42,466 spread.

547,525
504,959

The spread is 10% of the county population.
This will be impressive if I'm on the mark!

[L. Coyote]

40. Exit polls give Obama 11% lead = Gary/South Bend/NW

Gary/South Bend/NW

19% of voters

44% Clinton

55% Obama

There are some burbs in this subset that reported already (and voted Clinton?).

[L. Coyote]

42. 39,607 margin at 87% reporting

568,039
528,432

180,000 to 220,000 votes are outstanding.

Marion vote went 67% Obama.

Marion
Candidate	  Votes	       % of votes
Barack Obama	  121,907	67%
Hillary Clinton	  60,247	33%


	

[MindMatter]

43. MSNBC's Todd says best case for Clinton is +10,000

[L. Coyote]

46. That was interesting. But, is he part of Operation Chaos ??

Good discussion, but his math is off.

Marion and Lake have the same demographics, and Obama can do less in Lake and still pull it out handily.

60% of 200,000 breaks for Obama!

[MindMatter]

50. No. He's on the money.

It is now under 20,000 votes with 28% of Lake in. This very definitely could go for Obama.

[L. Coyote]

49. 38,311 = 88% of precincts reporting

574,643 52%
536,332 48%
38,311 = 88% of precincts reporting

[candidatechopin]

44. What a simplistic prediction

With 89% reported, the lead is 4%. The remaining counties are not enough to overcome this lead.

[L. Coyote]

47. One county remains, with 200,000 voters voting over 60% Obama. Do the math!!

I call it mathematics, and my students and friends call me professor for a reason!!

[L. Coyote]

73. MSNBC had this number wrong. 120,000 votes in Lake County!!

I assume they referred to outstanding votes state-wide instead??

[malaise]

45. Looks like you're right

according to the mayor of Gary Indiana per GEM$NBC

[L. Coyote]

51. 91% reporting, 19,790 margin

msnbc.com

[TooRaLoo]

52. I'm jumping on with ya! nt

[L. Coyote]

53. A win over 5,000 votes is likely now.

I predicted 4,000. I'm moving that up a 1,000 votes now.

Lake is breaking 75/25 so far.

Clinton canceling morning appearances.

They know this math.

[debbierlus]

54. Gore won't be VP again. He has stated he has no interest in any position but President

And, Obama will completely work with him, he doesn't need to commit to a official position to hold sway.

[L. Coyote]

55. 91% of precincts reporting, 135,000 votes are still out in Lake.

588,106 51%
567,149 49%

1,155,255

91% of precincts reporting

Lake
Candidate Votes % of votes
Barack Obama 27,991 75%
Hillary Clinton 9,470 25%
28% of precincts reporting

Looks like a sure thing for Obama now.

[Zachstar]

57. I am going to call it as well. Obama!

[L. Coyote]

58. Obama will gain several 1,000 from Monroe County still, too!

[L. Coyote]

59. They are calling the nomination for Obama already, even without calling Indiana!

[EFerrari]

60. And you called it first.

Well done!

[L. Coyote]

61. I had my spreadsheet working for Florida 2000, with algebraics, and e-mailed Gore

while he rode to the concession speech and told him he would pull it out, by 180 votes!!

Gore canceled the concession. But, I don't know if he got my e-mail!!

[L. Coyote]

63. 16,609 with 95% reporting

606,497 Clinton
589,888 Obama

[L. Coyote]

64. 60,000 votes remaining in Lake County. Obama needs 5/8ths to win IN

given a boost of 1,000+ from Monroe County.

[Bensthename]

65. You are right. Looking at the remaing votes they are in Obama country.

[L. Coyote]

66. The Monroe County absentees are almost all student votes. They went home

from classes, and voted first! That may add over 2,000 to Obama, at least 1,200 +.

[L. Coyote]

67. 16,000 absentee votes may be outstanding in Indiana statewide.

[L. Coyote]

68. MSNBC just declared Clinton the winner

What just changed?

99%       95%      gain
637,389	606,497	  30,892
615,370	589,888	  25,482

This is a real surprise given this is Lake County!!

We just switched from a 75/25 Obama break to 55/45 Clinton break for the last 60,000!

[L. Coyote]

69. New Tally = Clinton by 22,439

638,192
615,753

[positronio]

70. with 99% counted, Clinton leads by 2%

It's the 3rd state out of the last 4 won by Clinton.

[L. Coyote]

71. 1.8 % with several thousand to be picked up by Obama in Monroe.

This may help cancel the Clinton debts, but not much else.

[L. Coyote]

72. Lake County results = 119,575 votes and 55.4% Obama.

Lake
Candidate	Votes	% of votes
Barack Obama	66,265	55%
Hillary Clinton	53,310	45%
99% of precincts reporting

[Carrieyazel]

74. Bad call. Hillary wins Indiana.

[L. Coyote]

75. Not even close, eh? But it was a fun thread.