Limbaugh Effect: Exit polls show 7% of Hillary Indiana voters will NOT vote for her in GE.

[mckeown1128]

Some reporters have speculated about the impact of the "Limbaugh effect" -- partisan Republicans crossing over to vote fr Hillary Clinton solely to help weaken the Democrats against John McCain. The sieze of the effect is hard to measure. But there is one numerical measurement, first pointed out to me by the Pew Survey's Richard Auxier following the Pennsylvania primary, that gives some sense of it.

One exit poll question asks Indiana voters who they would support in a Clinton-McCain contest. 17% of them say McCain. Of those voters, 41% say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. In other words, these voters, 7% of the Indiana electorate, voted for Clinton in the primary but have no intention of supporting her in the fall.

Now, this isn't a precise measure of the "Limbaugh effect" -- no doubt there are some Republicans who backed Obama in the primary out of anti-Clinton sentiment, but plan to vote for McCain in November. But it is a good place to start when making a ballpark estimate. And it's a sizeable number -- 7% may wind up being as big as her margin of victory.

Update: On MSNBC, Keith Olbermann and Norah O'Donnell were discussing the Limbaugh effect. They showed -- I'm going from recall here -- that 11% of Indiana voters were Republicans, Clinton carried them 56-42%, but 63% thought Obama would be a stronger nominee against McCain. Somehow they decided that this proved the Limbaugh effect was negligible. I have no idea how they got that conclusion -- it doesn't prove anything at all -- but Olbermann has been looking for ways to belittle Limbaugh. I propose that political pundits be forced to take a course in high school statistics before going on the air.


http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/05/06/measuring-the-limbaugh-effect.aspx

If you take away 7% of her vote that would help Obama close 3.5%... and that means he would win IN..(although he may still win)

[BlooInBloo]

1. More info on the republican Clinton supporters....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-limbaugh-effec_n_100488.html

"Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?

The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the "chaos" in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said "neither candidate" shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton. "

[melody]

2. One of the first things we need is an FCC that will go after this monster

Inciting violence ... trying to impede elections ... he needs to lose his license.

[Medusa]

3. I've suspected this for a long time now

good to see they polled on this today.

[NJmaverick]

4. This precisely why the Dems have SDs, to counter this sort of repuke BS

[izzybeans]

5. That seems the simplest way to segment the data on this question.

However, LImbaugh can't be given total credit for this. Republicans have been playing these tricks for some time.

[muntrv]

6. Sounds like 1972 when in MI, the republickers raided the Democratic primary

to vote for George Wallace.

[anonymous171]

7. Uh-oh.

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. 7%

Imagine 7% of anything.

[mod mom]

9. HuffPo: Exit Polls: Limbaugh Effect Seems to Rear It's Head

Exit Polls: Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head

May 6, 2008 08:40 PM


Politics
Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?

The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the "chaos" in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said "neither candidate" shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.

These are not small numbers. By comparison, of the 33 percent of voters who said Sen. Barack Obama does not share their values, only seven percent cast their ballots in his favor. Basically, more people who don't relate to Clinton are, for one reason or another, still voting for her. These are not likely to be loyal supporters.

-snip

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-limbaugh-effec_n_100488.html

[Pawel K]

10. And how does that 7% compare to the republicans that voted Obama? We need some context here.

[dbmk]

14. Context provided:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5869508&mesg_id=5869508

[Pawel K]

15. Thanks, Obama's number is fairly high too but hers is double.

[dbmk]

18. In PA it was double

In IN it was almost triple.

[nichomachus]

11. The sad thing is

that these yahoos who drooled their way across party lines to fuck with the Democrats are the ones who will be the first to be hurt or are more likely to be hurt by a GOP presidency.

Idiots.

Whenever someone starts telling me some tale of woe about their health care, job loss, etc. etc, the first thing I ask is whether they voted for Bush. If they say yes, then I ask them what the hell they expected. This is what they wanted, they have to live with it.

[Perry Logan]

12. I'll bet it was the first time any of them ever voted for a decent candidate.

[dbmk]

13. I calculated it to about 50-55.000

Thats net gain when subtracting the same kind of voters on Obamas side. The ones that would vote McCain even if he came up against the one they had just voted for.

[mkultra]

16. so all that to swing maybe on delegate

Limpballs is a bucket of fail.

[rinsd]

17. There's a solution to this. Don't allow Republicans to vote in our primaries.

You want to decide our nominee?

Join the party or register yourself as independent/decline to state.

[RainDog]

19. between the Chaos voters and the voter registration purges

(which is why provisional ballots were still being counted today)

I think it is reasonable to say that Barack Obama won the state of Indiana.

and the WAY he won it, one way, was a get out the vote campaign that stressed early voting/write in to verify the vote. This is something the national campaign needs to keep on top of - in all 50 states, cause the election isn't just about the presidency.

[Dr Fate]

20. Since we are going to talk about Rush all day- I may as well bring up Norm Woodruff.

As well as the alias of "Jeff Christie."

Happy googling, Rush lurkers.

[RainDog]

21. now now

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062700194.html

you know, when Rush was arrested with a bottle of viagra after returning from a sex tour... I mean vacation in the Dominican Republic... they never did disclose the actual name on the prescription. wouldn't it be funny if it were Jeff Christie?

sorry, I am simply making a joke at Rush's expense and not implying that he, in any way, is a gasbag of epic proportions.

[Dr Fate]

22. I thought he was going on a "cigar tour"

LOL- then again, maybe he was. ;)

[indimuse]

23. oh...SHUT UP WITH THIS SHIT!

Obama was BEGGING for thr Righty vote in NH...NV...Ohio...on and on...

[mckeown1128]

24. hmmm... that wasn't done by the Obama campaign...

but I love that you guys/gals post it every time someone talks about Republicans "bragging" about voting for Hillary. (you forget that Repubs had a contest of their own then)

[backscatter712]

25. Operation Chaos failed in its ultimate task last night.

They wanted us flinging poo at each other all the way to the convention.

They wanted riots in the streets. Rush was saying "I'm not inciting a riot at the convention, but I'm dreaming of it..."

But hey, riots are gonna be just a dream, because we have a nominee. It's all over except for the formalities. And we will unite behind the nominee, if for no other reason than to give the middle finger to the Limbaughtomized.

[Tribetime]

26. It could very well have cost Obama the Texas Primary also

and who knows this might have been over long ago.....but I doubt it.