I think Clinton's WV victory margin will be slimmer than most people think

[rox63]

For the week prior to the WV primary, the news has been full of stories about how Obama will be the nominee, and how Clinton has no path to the nomination. That will have an effect on WV voters, who will recognize that she has no chance of winning this. I think a lot of people will stay home, and not bother to vote. They may not go and vote for Obama in her place. But when they recognize that their vote won't change anything about the Dem nominee, they may not bother at all, unless there are other compelling contests on the ballot.

Mind you, I think they should go out and vote, to make their voices heard. But I think many may just stay home instead.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Well it sure can't be much *wider*. Way to go out on a limb,

[Boz]

10. Obama has been and still is a clean coal man. That goes heavy with WV

[BlooInBloo]

16. Heh - we'll see how much that counters other things.

[kwenu]

25. Other things like what?

[iamthebandfanman]

2. i think it doesnt matter

because obama already has the nomination....

regardless of what hillary keeps saying.

this whole ordeal has become incredibly sad.

watching her be so desperate is so disheartening.

[LSparkle]

3. I don't think the margin for her will even be 15 points ...

Much less the 30-point "game-changer" margin that's been bandied about
as of this morning.

[Coexist]

17. a 30 point victory in a state with only 29 delegates won't change anything either.

she needs to win it by 80%.

[mac2]

4. What crystal ball is that? From Obama, Inc.?

[rox63]

5. No crystal ball, just a gut feeling n/t

[DemVet]

6. Slimmer? What, only 25 points?

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. I would put money on 20 or less.

(but not MUCH less)

[AllentownJake]

12. Unless you can

Award WV 230 delegates and win by 40...its still over.

Besides red states don't matter rememeber.

[DemVet]

22. At least to Barry they don't.

Of course, those who haven't given him a $1000 probably don't matter either.

[AllentownJake]

23. Who went to Idaho

Fucking Idaho.

[Major Hogwash]

14. What are you talking about? Hillary is the Great White Dope, she has a 50 point lead!

After all there are no blacks who would vote for Obama in West Virginia.

According to Bubba!

LoL

[rocktivity]

7. A win in WV has to be 72 points "wide" to help her beat Obama

though it might impress potential fundraisers. Meanwhile, even 35% of WV would reduce the number of superdelegates Obama would need after he clinches the pledged delegate lead.

:headbang:
rocknation

[underpants]

15. I think the common consensus will be "Yeah but it is West Virginia"

hate to say that but that will probably be the conventional wisdom no matter what happens

[Levgreee]

9. operation chaos will not be as significant, more of the operatives will be apathetic

[jgraz]

11. She's lost ground everywhere she's campaigned

No reason to think WV will be any different.

[AllentownJake]

13. Turnout

is going to be not as good as well...why bother to vote when you know its over.

There goes the gamechanger for the popular vote.

[keep_it_real]

18. I agree, people are not as racist as she thinks they are

[SoCalDem]

19. and many people may vote against her to PROVE that they are not petty and small

as she seems to think they are...

Reverse psychology may just happen next week.

[keep_it_real]

20. Exactly

[Zachstar]

21. If Obama takes the super lead I think he can do a campaign in the big cities and go.

He will go to other places of course but really we have our nominee and there is just not going to be enough support for Clinton left.

[doc03]

24. He is certainly dumping a ton of money in WV

[nomorewhopper]

26. shes up 43 points its going to be a blowout

and it won't matter in the slightest

[Major Hogwash]

32. Her supporters are giving 110%

They're cheating, they're stealing 10% from someone else, by gawd.

[ShortnFiery]

27. I hope you're right.

:hi:

[4themind]

28. Isn't it another open primary?

could be more operation chaos occuring

[NJSecularist]

29. Me too.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Clinton: 66
Obama: 23

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 57% to 27% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 20%.

Clinton leads 70% to 19% among white voters (93% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 3% among African American voters (5% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 61% to 27% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 72% to 19% among voters age 50 and older.

13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 45% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Orsino]

30. Reports of her lead vary so wildly...

...that I'm not sure how to measure the Inevitability Effect. I guess that if it isn't some sort of blow-out, that'll be the only way to tell.

[nsd]

31. My guess is that it'll mostly depress turnout.