THE MATH Daily Widget – Sunday, May 25 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Sunday, May 25 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING











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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[myrna minx]

1. K&R n/t

:hi:

[dbmk]

2. K&R

[nxylas]

3. Personally, the only way I'd improve these posts...

...is to replace the electoral map at the bottom with the best case scenario map under the Poblano model. The one that has my home state of South Carolina colored blue (a sight I never thought I'd see in a million years). It may not have as much practical value, but it's so, so beautiful.

[phrigndumass]

6. Just for you ... see maps in reply #5 below :)

Bottom map in reply #5 below ...

:toast:

[nxylas]

7. I was actually talking about this one

Isn't it purty? (edit: meaning the bottom map - I didn't realize the image URL was for all 4 maps).

[phrigndumass]

8. It is purty! 538.com and poblano have it all together

I also like to see a blue Texas! Texas is more in play this year than it has been in a very long time. And look at Indiana :)

[grantcart]

9. everything (almost) is in play look at Montana

[grantcart]

4. On the WEA index and WEA total what accounts for the difference?

did one non index state go from Obama?

[phrigndumass]

5. Virginia went blue :)

Base States:



Swing States:



Today's EV Makeup:

[grantcart]

10. how about NH?

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_rasmussen_new_hampshire_1.php

New Hampshire
Obama 48, McCain 43... Clinton 51, McCain 41
Sen: Shaheen 50, Sununu 43

[phrigndumass]

13. Dartmouth University has a more recent poll

Obama -3, dated May 2

[grantcart]

11. Indiana also but not a reliable enough poll

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_downs_center_indiana_4283.php

[phrigndumass]

14. That's the one I'm currently using for IN, but a new one came out today

... I think. If a new poll is out, it'll be mixed in with tomorrow's updates.

I really like that we chose Indiana for a swing state. It has huge potential this year for us.

[grantcart]

16. I think the swing states we chose turned out great

I especially like N/S Carolina they are closer than people thought

[grantcart]

12. remarkably McCain is only polling 51% in AZ it could be in play with the right VP

[phrigndumass]

15. Napolitano, yes! :)

I hope she's on the VP short list.