If a fraud-free election was held today, the model projects Obama as the winner with 339 electoral votes and 53.8% of the two-party vote.
But past is prologue: we would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
The Election Model includes two key fraud variable factors: uncounted and switched votes. These factors are never mentioned in
election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. It’s 2008 and nothing on fraud from professional pollsters,
political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But then again, it’s understandable. Why should
any of these interested parties discuss fraud, when only a few Democratic politicians even dare to? No one wants to rock the boat. Unlike
impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The
scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5% uncounted, 5% switched). This sensitivity
analysis tool enables one to view the effects of various combinations of uncounted and switched vote rates. Historical evidence shows that
the vast majority of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. Therefore, it is assumed that Obama will win
75% of uncounted votes.
The base case projection (339 EV; 53.8% 2-party vote share) assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted and there is
no vote switching, the model projects that Obama will have 312 EV and 52.9%. McCain would need at least 4% of Obama's votes switched to
his column to win with 270 EV. The only way he can win is to emulate Bush in 2004: significant vote-switching on touch screen DREs and
optical scanners. Is it just coincidental that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
Electoral vote: 339 – 199 EV.Popular vote share projection:53.8% State model (aggregate average)
53.2% National model (5-poll average)
Win probability:State100.0% — electoral vote (Monte Carlo simulation)
99.99% — popular vote (2.0% MoE)
99.32% — popular vote (3.0% MoE)
National99.90% — popular vote (2.0% MoE)
Latest poll averages:Obama
47.6 - McCain
42.1 (state aggregate)
Obama
48.6 - McCain
43.8 (latest 5 national polls)
Data source:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.htmlUndecided voter allocation (UVA) sensitivity analysis- UVA scenarios: 50, 55, 60, 65, 70% to Obama
- Worst case (50%)
52.8%, 314 EV, 99.6% EV win probability
- Best case (70%)
54.8%, 370 EV, 100% EV win probability
The complete state and national polls and projections are shown below.
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama:McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.But there’s a catch: It’s called
Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.A massive new voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.- Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
- Vote counts on DREs and central tabulators are unverifiable.
On Election Day 2004, Bush had a
48% approval rating.
The
Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.
Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
But Bush was the official winner by 50.7- 48.3% with 286 EV.
And so the Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.
The final state and national polls/projections are shown below.
Calculation of Win ProbabilitiesElectoral Vote - based on a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation:- The EV win probability is the number of winning election trials/5000.
The expected electoral vote is the average of the 5000 election trials.
Popular Vote I - based on the State aggregate vote share projection:- The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
- It is calculated for both a 2% and 3% margin of error (MoE).
- If Obama’s projected vote share =V, his popular vote win probability is calculated by
the Excel formula: = NORMDIST (V, .50, .02/1.96, true) assuming a 2.0% MoE.
Popular Vote II - based on the latest 5 National poll average vote share projection:- The win probability is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function.
- A 2.5% MoE is assumed for the projected 5-poll moving average (MA).
The Excel formula: = NORMDIST (MA, .50, .025/1.96, true).
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities are based on 4% margin of error and the projected state vote share.
- For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The 2008 Election CalculatorThis model determined that
Obama will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m (54 - 45%).
The
True Vote is calculated based on applying vote shares to returning 2004 and new voters:
- 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004 voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
In projecting uncounted votes and voter turnout based on actual historical data, the model
considers several components of fraud which are never addressed by political forecasters
in academia, the media or on so-called liberal democratic websites.
2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100.0% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
2004 Election Model ReviewThe model produced a startling confirmation of the State and National models.- Both projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final national 5-poll moving average projection was 51.8%.
The final national 18-poll moving average projection was 51.6%.
- The Monte Carlo simulation gave Kerry an expected 337 electoral votes in the base case.
- In the base case scenario Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote (UVA base case scenario).
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls and UVA.Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
Kerry’s aggregate projected vote share (51.0%) was within 0.8% of his unadjusted exit poll share (51.8%).
The
12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by
51 –
48%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan 2005:
The state Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between the unadjusted exit poll and the vote.
It is more appropriately called Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the
unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 51.8 – 47.2%.
- The average WPD exceeded 4.0 in 34 states for Bush and just 2 states for Kerry.
- The WPD was under 2.0 in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK, TN).
- It was under 2.0 in just one Democratic state: OR is the only state which votes exclusively by paper ballot.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%.
Either all state and national projected
Pre-election polls and preliminary
Exit polls were wrong, or the
Recorded Vote was fraudulent.
The Election Calculator Model used
12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a
67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share
2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%
Election Forecasting MethodologyTwo basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:
- Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
Both state and national models allocate undecided voters to project the two-party vote.
The state model uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the expected electoral vote.
The Election Model assumes the election is held on the latest poll date.
- Projections based on historical time-series data (regression models).
These models forecast vote-share only and are usually executed months in advance of the election.
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation OverviewThe objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.
For each of 5000 election trials, the winner of a state is determined as follows:
Obama's state win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one.
If the probability is less than RND, Obama wins the state EV, else McCain.
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes.
The EV win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) PollsThe national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.
Other links:
Latest
2008 Election ModelConfirmation of A Kerry LandslideElection Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQExcel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-20042004 Interactive Simulation ModelA Polling Simulation Model2000-2004 County Vote Database
Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability
THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
Last
State
National
State
National
Monte Carlo
Simulation
Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
7/7/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV
Obama
McCain
47.58
42.09
48.60
43.8
53.78
46.22
53.16
46.84
339
199
Sensitivity Analysis
Undecided Voter Allocation Assumption
Obama
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
State model: Projected weighted average vote share
Obama
McCain
52.75
47.25
53.26
46.74
53.78
46.22
54.30
45.70
54.81
45.19
MoE Probability Obama wins popular vote (normal distribution)
2.0 %
3.0 %
99.6
96.4
99.9
98.3
99.99
99.32
100
99.7
100
99.9
Monte Carlo Probability Obama wins electoral vote (trial wins/ 5000)
Win
Probability
4958
99.2
4990
99.8
5000
100
4999
100
5000
100
Obama Average Electoral Vote
Average
Median
314
313
325
324
339
338
354
353
370
369
Maximum
Minimum
388
241
403
262
419
272
439
263
449
282
95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
355
274
367
284
382
295
399
308
418
321
States Won
26
26
27
29
32
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS State Model
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
47.6 %
36
41
34
40
56
46
55
90
50
44
44
61
39
60
48
47
37
35
36
55
52
53
48
51
44
43
48
36
42
50
49
48
59
43
38
47
38
48
48
53
39
34
36
39
31
63
46
55
37
50
40
McCain
42.1 %
51
45
44
47
36
43
35
9
41
47
50
31
52
31
47
42
47
51
52
33
39
37
40
42
50
47
43
52
45
39
33
43
33
45
44
43
52
45
40
25
48
51
51
48
55
29
48
40
45
40
53
Diff
5.5 %
(15)
(4)
(10)
(7)
20
3
20
81
9
(3)
(6)
30
(13)
29
1
5
(10)
(16)
(16)
22
13
16
8
9
(6)
(4)
5
(16)
(3)
11
16
5
26
(2)
(6)
4
(14)
3
8
28
(9)
(17)
(15)
(9)
(24)
34
(2)
15
(8)
10
(13)
BO EV
307
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
3
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
Obama
53.8 %
43.8
49.4
47.2
47.8
60.8
52.6
61.0
55.4
90.6
49.4
47.6
65.8
44.4
65.4
51.0
53.6
46.6
43.4
43.2
62.2
57.4
59.0
55.2
55.2
47.6
49.0
53.4
43.2
49.8
56.6
59.8
53.4
63.8
50.2
48.8
53.0
44.0
52.2
55.2
66.2
46.8
43.0
43.8
46.8
39.4
67.8
49.6
58.0
47.8
56.0
44.2
Probability
100.0 %
0.1
38.2
8.1
13.6
100.0
90.3
100.0
99.7
100.0
38.2
11.5
100.0
0.3
100.0
69.1
96.4
4.5
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.5
99.5
11.5
30.9
95.5
0.0
46.0
100.0
100.0
95.5
100.0
54.0
27.4
93.3
0.1
86.4
99.5
100.0
5.5
0.0
0.1
5.5
0.0
100.0
42.1
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
EV
339
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
3
4
15
5
31
15
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
Obama
7
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
National Model
15-poll
Last Poll
Sample
NATIONAL MODEL
5-Poll Mov Avg
5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj
MoE: 2.0%
Trend
Gallup
Rasmussen
CNN
DemCorp
Time
Bloomberg
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP
COOK/RT
Zogby
NBC/WSJ
Date
7/05
7/02
6/29
6/25
6/25
6/23
6/19
6/19
6/18
6/18
6/17
6/15
6/15
6/14
6/09
Size
2620 RV
3000 LV
906 RV
2000 RV
805 RV
1115 RV
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
880 RV
1113 LV
1000 RV
Obama
48
49
50
49
47
49
50
51
45
48
47
49
44
47
47
McCain
42
44
45
45
43
37
44
36
41
45
42
45
40
42
41
Spread
6
5
5
4
4
12
6
15
4
3
5
4
4
5
6
Obama
48.6
48.8
49.0
49.2
48.4
48.6
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0
46.8
46.2
45.0
46.0
46.2
McCain
43.8
42.8
42.8
41.0
40.2
40.6
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8
42.0
42.0
41.0
42.2
42.2
Obama
53.2
53.8
53.9
55.1
55.2
55.1
54.3
54.1
53.1
53.1
53.5
53.3
53.4
53.1
53.2
McCain
46.8
46.2
46.1
44.9
44.8
44.9
45.7
45.9
46.9
46.9
46.5
46.7
46.6
46.9
46.8
Diff
6.3
7.7
7.8
10.2
10.5
10.2
8.6
8.2
6.2
6.2
7.0
6.6
6.8
6.2
6.3
Win Prob
99.45
99.93
99.95
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.98
99.96
98.60
98.90
99.60
99.02
98.87
98.26
98.67
Win Prob
99.90
99.99
99.99
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.87
99.89
99.97
99.93
99.96
99.87
99.90