Reuters/Zogby: Obama Leads McCain (47% - 40%) & A Four-Way Race Helps Obama

[writes3000]

Huge poll info here. I've highlighted some telling paragraphs.

1) "Obama leads McCain, 47% to 40%, with 13% saying they prefer someone else or are not yet sure about their selection in the race – just a slight shift from June’s survey, when Obama led McCain 47% to 42%. While Obama maintains a significant lead among women, among men the candidates are now deadlocked at 44%, erasing the six-point lead among men McCain held in June. Both candidates receive strong support among voters from their own party, but the 22-point lead among political independents Obama held in June has withered and now stands at 44% for Obama, compared with 41% for McCain. The live operator telephone survey was conducted July 9-13, 2008, and included 1,039 likely voters nationwide. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points."

2) "Four-way race with Barr and Nader hurts McCain

Adding minor presidential candidates, including Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr to the equation, both minor candidates garner three percent support and Obama’s lead over McCain jumps to 10 points, 46% to 36%. Barr earns the most support from political independents (7%), those age 18 to 29 (8%), weekly Wal-Mart shoppers (7%), those who attend religious services on a weekly basis (7%) and men (6%). Nader finds the most support with women (5%), weekly Wal-Mart shoppers (6%), those age 18 to 24 (6%), and those living in Western states (6%)."

3) "Obama has edge over McCain as candidate to best manage the U.S. economy

With the U.S. economy on the rocks and increasing worries about record-high oil prices, the mortgage and credit crisis, and the slumping value of the dollar, nearly half of likely voters (47%) said the economy is the most important issue that will determine their vote in November. A majority among Democrats (54%), moderates (58%), Catholics (59%), Hispanics (61%), and African Americans (53%) place the economy as their number-one issue – as do 60% of those with $75,000 to $100,000 in household income, the highest of any household income bracket.

As America’s economic woes take center stage during the election season, this latest poll now gives Obama a slight edge over McCain as the best candidate to handle the economy, 44% to 40% – a reversal from last month’s survey where with 45% said McCain would best manage the economy, compared to 40% who said Obama would be the better economic manager."

www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1529

[JuniperLea]

1. Points are climbing... slowly!

I won't be completely comfortable until Obama has at least a 15% lead in the polls. I just don't get how anyone can choose McCain over Obama. Just doesn't make sense to me.

[SteelPenguin]

2. So what does the electoral map look like in a 3-4 way race?

I know that there are a number of states in the margin of error or even, like North Dakota. I'm asusming that Bob Bar will be on the ballot in all states, and if he garners 5% from McCain, wouldn't that mean a whole heap of leaning states just moved to Obama's column?