McCain Closes In On Obama In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac/WSJ/ WaPo poll finds.

[speedoo]

COLORADO: McCain 46 - Obama 44 MICHIGAN: Obama 46 - McCain 42 MINNESOTA: Obama 46 - McCain 44 WISCONSIN: Obama 50 - McCain 39

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1195

(snip)

Arizona Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.


Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.


Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:
Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.

"Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

(snip)

From July 14 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,425 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
1,684 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent;
1,261 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,094 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent

(snip)

Ugh. Stupid Americans falling for McCain's "drill now" ploy. Obama needs a better response on energy, and he needs to hit the ground running when he returns from ME/Europe.

[stray cat]

1. thats a surprise!

[ingac70]

2. 50%-39% is closing in?

:eyes:

[speedoo]

5. Yes, it's 2 points closer.

And the other three states show much more dramatic gains for McCain.

[thewiseguy]

10. Rasmussen had Obama up by 6 in Colorado

That was as of 3 days ago.

Nothing has taken place in Colorado to merit such a change in the polls. Plus keep in mind that polls do carry a margin for error and you will not arrive at the same number even if you polled a state twice in one day.

1-2 points do not count for gains. They are statistical noise.

[speedoo]

15. The swing in CO is seven points, not "statistical noise".

Typically, Rasmussens' samples are much smaller than the samples Quinnipiac uses, so these polls have to be taken seriously.

[thewiseguy]

20. Nothing has happened to merit such a change

Rasmussen showed that Obama gained 5 points on McCain in their latest poll. Who to believe?

[speedoo]

23. McCain's drilling for oil tactic is what's different between the two Q polls..

It's obviously working, bacause, as we have to remember, there are a lot of stupid Americans.

[thewiseguy]

26. Last poll was on the 24th of last month

I think the drilling issue was out by then. Plus PPP also polled Colorado 2 weeks ago and they had Obama up by 5.

[speedoo]

28. Actually it was June 26 (poll release date).

But I doubt that the drilling issue had registered much at the time the poll was actually conducted which would have been more the middle of June. My recollection is that it was more an early July issue.

Anyhow, the importance of energy as an issue is pretty clear from this poll. And it's clearly an issue that Obama needs to work on.

[Mike Daniels]

30. Plus now you're hearing stories of how oil cost is dropping almost daily

People associate that drop with Bush lifting the restrictions on off-shore drilling.
They now McCain is on the same page and therefore that could account for the adjustments in the polls.

Whether those adjustments stay the same if oil continues to drop and people only see a small change at the pumps I don't know. But, it would be the one thing that is working in McCains favor right now.

[KamaAina]

60. Meanwhile, "GOP kills effort to release oil from US stockpile"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080724/ap_on_go_co/congress_energy

House Republicans on Thursday scuttled a bill that Democrats hoped would help lower gasoline prices by forcing the Energy Department to release 70 million barrels of oil — about a three-day supply — from the national stockpile.

Democrats promised that the action would have produced immediate relief at the pump, as was the case with similar releases in 1991, 2000 and 2005. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve now holds about 700 million barrels....

Democrats said the release from the oil reserve could provide relief at the pump within two weeks, though they would not say how much it would help $4-per-gallon gas. Earlier releases, such as a 34 million barrel drawdown in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War, caused prices to fall.

Well, sure, but what did they do for Big Oil's bottom line? :sarcasm:

So once again we see what happens when the repukes allow Big Oil to make energy policy in secret meetings with Vice President Cheney. Why are people falling for this BS??

[jumptheshadow]

59. FISA

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Obama's vote on FISA hurt him, it did not help him.

[Danger Mouse]

70. Why the fuck would somebody upset over FISA switch their vote to McCain

unless their brains had leaked out of their head?

[jumptheshadow]

87. Number one

You *would not* use that word in a conversation with me, believe me, so don't use it with me on a board. Somewhere it is against DU rules.

Number two, many of you don't get that voters would not go to McCain. The issue, as Obama said, is that FISA was a "deal breaker," and that means that some people went from a "yes" to an "I'm going to stay at home because he's just another guy who will some one thing and do another." Some people also went to Barr. A lot of people mistakenly believe he's the candidate for disaffected Republicans, but no, he's the Libertarian candidate who will pick up independents who may have been inclined to vote for Obama but want to make a statement about constitutional freedoms.

[dkf]

3. Yup, Obama needs to do something big on energy.

This is the one place I feel he needs to work on.

[Thrill]

4. Outspending Obama 3-1

[uponit7771]

18. Yeap, McSame has to blow his cash now before Oct & Sept. Obama can hold on to last minute.

[AndyTiedye]

43. McInsane Can Spend All He Wants, Big Oil Will Give Him More

[Guaranteed]

73. Maybe THAT'S why the media are giving McCain such favorable coverage?

Because he's buying their commercial time.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Small movement everywhere except MN, which looks to be a total outlier...

as compared to other polls of that state. No way McLame is within two in MN.

EDIT: Also, see that Norm has a 15 pt lead of Franken in the Senate race. Others show that to be a horserace. Age 18-34 give Obama a five point lead? No fucking way. Dismiss.

[speedoo]

9. I would not say a 7 point swing in Colorado is a small movement.

But more importantly, these polls show that McCain's energy gambit is working. I just hope Obama's people knew this already and are ready to address it effectively.

[Carrieyazel]

35. The Minn. poll is totally bogus, I agree. But the others make me nervous.

[Mass]

7. With the exception of Minnesota, these are normal variations.

Polling is not exact science and these variations are normal. Also, internals tell us a lot about how these polls are taken. Sometimes there are big surprises.

[CherokeeDem]

8. Interesting....

Obama has lost a couple of % points but McCain hasn't really gained except in one state. You statisticians out there, is this just "within the margin or error" differences or wonder if the 2% are now in the undecided column. These snapshots in time can be very frustrating.

[dkf]

11. From the poll...Energy more important than Iraq.

Most interesting finding: "Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/07/24/quinnipiac_mccain_gains_in_key_battleground_states.html

[DarthDem]

24. That's Absurd

Those numbers are not correct. As soemone said above quite well, dismiss.

[liberal N proud]

12. How is this even possible?

People must be really that fucking stupid if these numbers are even close to being accurate

[dkf]

14. I keep complaining that Obama hasn't articulated an energy policy that speaks to me.

Gore has, Robert Kennedy has, even T. Boone Pickens has...where is Obama?

[JoshDem]

13. Minnesota Cannot Be Right

Rasmussen shows Obama with a double digit lead.

Not surprised about Colorado and Michigan--these will be two of the closest states in the election.

[mvd]

40. The poll either picked up an overcorrection in a couple states..

(CO and MN) or the sampling was flawed. Maybe both.

[windbreeze]

16. Apparently, they are planning to steal this thing again, and that's the

"battleground" states where they intend to steal it, like Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004..wb

[Michigan-Arizona]

58. Sorry I don't believe it's closing in

They just want it to look close so that when they steal it once again the people will just write it off saying well you know the poll's were very close. Remember the saying "anybody but bush", well I think people feel the same way with this election.

[windbreeze]

69. I agree...and in a round about way, that's exactly what I was saying..n/t

[Michigan-Arizona]

82. Windbreeze

I to was agreeing with what you had written & I'm sorry if what I wrote came across the wrong way. I was disagreeing with how they say it is closing in.

[windbreeze]

83. OK..

I thought perhaps it was me who sounded muddled, that is why I came back and clarified...I keep thinking about how Florida was going to be a problem in 2000, way before it was...then in 2004, how Ohio was supposed to be a problem, and lo/behold it was...IF they are saying that these 4 states are so close in the polls...then that gives us a clue as to what they are up to this time around...I don't pay any attention to the polls....after all they've only spent the last how many years proving how wrong all the polls can be...including the exit polls..with billion to one odds against that ever happening...uh huh, sure they were...!!

OH, and by the way, welcome to DU...wb

[Michigan-Arizona]

84. Thank you very much for the welcome Windbreeze

I'm from Michigan & now live in Arizona. I have lot's of family & friend's there that will vote for BO. I posted earlier today that all our travel's around the Tucson area we've not seen 1 bumper sticker or yard sign for JM. Oh you are so right on Florida & Ohio! I feel they have to pick new state's to steal it, it would seem to send up to many red flag's using the same state's over & over. Again thank you for the welcome!

[BklynChick]

17. MN is probably about all the Palenty chatter around him being VP

[Thrill]

19. States where its close like that. Obama will likely win because of turnout

[geek tragedy]

21. VERY funky result from Colorado--Obama ahead by 8% amongst

independents but behind?

No.

There can't be that many Republicans there.

Also, the MN poll has more men than women voters--I doubt that.

[DarthDem]

25. Just Looked at the Internals for CO

Goopers ID up 8%. Oversample. Flawed poll.

Jesus, it really is not hard to find evidence that pollsters like horse races and release results that are designed to show one.

[DemocracyInaction]

22. Ohio should make you throw up

Rassmessen (sp?) went from toss-up in Ohio to Obama and now back to toss-up---which is generous in that the actual numbers are McCain 46% and Obama 40%. I have to tell you that it's all making my stomach churn. The battlegrounds are moving in the McCain direction and not by a little.

[EnviroBat]

32. Ohio does make me throw up.

I have to live here amongst the ass-goblins... I puke a little every day...

[Carrieyazel]

37. Ohio is not a state to hold high hopes on, even though its still a battleground

Plenty of Ohio voters will not vote for Obama because of race. This isn't progressive Wisconsin we're talking about.

[Yavin4]

27. These Polls Were Taken Before Obama's Trip

Let's see how this trip plays out.

[Barack_America]

29. Have you all heard about this T. Boone Pickens' plan to promote wind energy?

He's investing a lot of money in airtime to promote his plan against drilling and for windmills.

It will be interesting to see how much reception this gets among Americans.

It's got my attention, for one. And yes, I know about his politics. And yes, I realize that he stands to make money off of wind power.

But I support wind power, he's buying up ad-time AND his presentation is going to sway those who take the time to listen to it. And, it just might help Barack.

http://www.pickensplan.com/

[Vinca]

31. Did you also know T. Boone also wants to drill everywhere immediately?

He wants to drill off the shores, in ANWR and anywhere else we can get oil. He's also in favor of more nuclear, oil shale and coal. T. Boone is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

[Barack_America]

34. No doubt about that. But this wind power plan he's promoting is beneficial to us right now.

I watched his presentation. He did not advocate offshore drilling in it (thus Americans watching it might not learn his position on that). His commercials say that "this is a problem we can't drill our way out of".

He is clearly in this for his own financial benefit, but it is helpful to us now, IMO.

[Vinca]

36. I'm betting he wants rights to every windmill in the country.

Something is definitely in it for T. Boone. He's not doing this out of his love for America. Remember this is the swell guy who financed the Swifties against Kerry.

[Barack_America]

44. He assuredly does.

But he won't get it. Meanwhile, this ad campaign is undercutting McCain's "offshore drilling is the only solution" stance. I can't help but notice the coincidence that the beginning of this ad campaign coincided with a planned McCain visit to an offshore oil rig, but I digress.

Politics makes for strange bedfellows, and on energy, it appears we might just be in the same bed as Pickens. Well, maybe not the same bed, but perhaps the same bedroom.

[Vinca]

47. He is undercutting both McCain and Bush and I give him props for that. nt

[Mass]

38. He is NOT against drilling. He is for it: ANWAR, continental shell, ...

He is also for natural gas.

And many other things.

He could not care less about global warming. He could not care less about energy getting less expensive. So, good if his ads change a few minds, as long as they understand that the man should not be given ANY favor, because he does not have our interests at heart, but his, and those are not the same. Big windfarm conglomerates will not be better than big oil conglomerates.

[Barack_America]

41. I wasn't talking about his personal beliefs, I was talking specifically about the ad campaign.

Where he says that "this isn't a problem we can drill our way out of" in promotion of wind energy. That it is a market he would surely try to corner does not take away from wind energy's viability as a solution. That is what regulations are for and a President who enforces them.

Pickens is helping the Democrats in his interest in making more money for himself. That is all I am saying (besides the fact that I like that wind energy is being promoted).

[Mass]

49. Sorry, there are things that are hard to swallow and forget, starting by the fact that

without him, we would have a president who cares about these issues (for 4 or 8 years, I guess he also helped Bush in 2000, even if not in such an egregious manner as in 2004). So, as I said, good if his ads change some minds, but I wished Democrats stop promoting him. The man is up to no good and he deserves no props.

And NO, he is not helping Obama, given that what he is promoting is exactly what McCain promotes: continue to drill and start new alternative energies. No difference at all. But, if you want to believe otherwise, feel free.

[Carrieyazel]

33. On the bright side, it does look that WISCONSIN is out of reach for McCain

along with Iowa. If you add those two states along with the solid and likely Obama states, he's at 217 EVs right now in 18 states that he will not lose barring something unforeseen.

However, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and even Pennsylvania are cause for great concern.

[mvd]

39. I really believe the CO and MN polls got bad samples

I'd say if the energy thing is having an effect, CO would be about tied and MN would just be a little closer. The other 2 polls look ok.

[AndyTiedye]

42. With a Week LIke This, Obama's Numbers Are Going DOWN??????????????

:wtf:

[speedoo]

46. Polls were taken well before this week. nt

[Upton]

45. I was against it at first but maybe it's time to put Hillary on the ticket

Obviously Obama's polls would have to show she would be a help but right now IMO he should have a larger lead.

[Frank Booth]

48. This is bad news.

It's proof of how powerful the media is in shaping people's perceptions.

Anyone who thought this was going to be easy is in for a rude awakening. The media (especially the TV media) is dead set against Obama, and that's an almost impossible hurdle to overcome. Just wait until the campaign really gets nasty. We may be wishing for these kind of poll numbers a month or two from now.

[dempartisan23]

50. we are blowing what should be an easy win

we dont have a response on energy.

[JoshDem]

51. More Offshore Drilling Needed

We need to have a balanced approach that opens up more of our Outer Continental Shelf to drilling, opens up ANWR and stresses conservation.

[dempartisan23]

53. i agree

we seem to have gotten behind on this issue, way behind.

[iamthebandfanman]

88. it wont help

if the good actually outweighed the bad for offshore drilling and drilling in alaska, then it would have already been done.

this will not lower the price of oil.
it wont have any effect for about 10 years.
even then, itll represent 2% of our oil, and since we are consuming more and more every year... and it wont be for another 10 years... something tells me thatll mean 1% or less.

so why should we further destroy an obviously hurting ecosystem just to exploit an old fuel that wont help anybody but the oil companies?

this is such a stupid idea, which is why it was originally ban.

yeah, just what the world needs as global climate change is on the rise... more raping of the land.

seriously, you both make me sick.

[SoonerPride]

64. No fucking way,

No more oilspills. no more drilling

1,000,000 MORE WINDMILLS INSTEAD.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

79. And we should stay in Iraq for 100 years

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

80. And we should make the Bush tax cuts permanent

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

81. 4th Amendment? Feh. Who Needs It?!

[iamthebandfanman]

89. and having the word 'dem'

in your nickname doesnt make you one either.

[Teaser]

54. we aren't blowing anything

we're winning. and we will win.

[dempartisan23]

63. i disagree

obama should be ahead by at least 15% right now. he doesnt seem to be connecting with voters. mccain is a horrible candidate, old, bland, and boring and still its a virtual tie.

[totodeinhere]

77. Instead of arguing over whether Obama will win or not, lets spend our energy working...

our asses off for him. Nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody really knows who will win or if it will be close enough that the pukes might try to steal it again. So instead of arguing over that, let's get to work.

[MarjorieG]

52. How much based on lying ads? We/everyone claims wrong facts, but working?

[Zynx]

55. In 3 of the four, it had to do with Obama's numbers falling rather than McCain rising.

I don't buy the Minnesota number. Minnesota is further left than Wisconsin.

[Bullet1987]

56. CO doesn't surprise me...that state will likely be close

People need to stop blowing up...Republicans were oversampled by almost 10%. That's not likely to be mimicked on election day.

[Imagevision]

57. Take another poll after the berlin and Dnver stadium speeches..

[BlueStater]

61. Whatever for? What the hell has this jackass done that would close the gap?

I wasn't aware that war-loving assholes were popular in Minnesota.

[MasonJar]

62. The high gas is hurting people and so they are grabbing at straws.

[depakid]

65. Just watch as the Republicans coopt that issue

and the Dems spin their wheels without an effective response.

[windbreeze]

72. Well, they need to remember, that when * took office...gas was

somewhere around $1.46 a gallon...now look at it...who's responsible?? sure wasn't the Dems...wb

[donco6]

66. The change in Colorado, I think, is due to oil shale issue.

Dems, led by Sen. Salazar, are resisting the Bush Admins' efforts to throw oil leasing wide open in the oil shale areas. Republicans, led by Allard, are deriding this, claiming it exemplifies why Dems are responsible for higher gas prices.

In reality, no one should be given oil leases until they actually know how they plan on getting the oil out of the shale. At this point, no one knows. How much water will it take? Will it involve mining, or just extraction? What kind of energy will the extraction take? The Denver Post had a good editorial on the issue just this morning.

http://www.denverpost.com/editorials/ci_9975629

I do think this is swaying some voters here in Colorado, however.

[Arkana]

67. Breath, then look at electoral-vote.com.

Obama led by 12 in Minnesota (Rasmussen) 2 days ago, and by 9 in Colorado 3 days ago. Nothing happened in the last 48-72 hours to significantly change that. This polling sample is flawed somewhere.

[RBInMaine]

68. And McBUSH will WIN the election if team Obama doesn't start getting TOUGH !!

[Danger Mouse]

71. How the FUCK are Americans stupid enough to fall for the offshore drilling LIE?

[dansolo]

74. What would they say to oil drilling in the Great Lakes?

Funny how people from 4 non-coastal states support offshore oil drilling. I wonder how they would feel if the offshore oil drilling occurred in their own back yard?

[bigwillq]

75. It's way too early

to start going crazy over polls.

[totodeinhere]

76. Right, the only important poll will be held on November 4th.

[bigdarryl]

78. Enough of the stupid polls that mean shit at this time most people are not

even paying attention to the election

[iconicgnom]

85. polls are the #1 manipulative tools of the MSM. I only trust independent polls, and even then

I take them with a grain of salt.

[TexasObserver]

86. Quinnipiac/WSJ/ WaPo - all untrustworthy

Don't believe them, and don't believe their polls.