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Poll has * within 3pts of Kerry in CA...

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NoMoreMrNiceGuy Donating Member (603 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:12 AM
Original message
Poll has * within 3pts of Kerry in CA...
Edited on Tue Aug-24-04 02:20 AM by NoMoreMrNiceGuy
NO FUCKING WAY....TO PUT IT BLUNTLY.

Obviously,that would kill Kerry if CA went to *.....I would bet my life that idiotboy isn't within 10 pts of Kerry there.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

to view the poll numbers just pass your cursor over the state...gives numbers and who conducted it.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
1. Not USA Today, Survey USA
Edited on Tue Aug-24-04 02:17 AM by tritsofme
2 completely different outfits.

USA Today and CNN sponsor Gallup polls.

Survey USA is an independent pollster.

This poll was an outlier.

You should probably change your title.
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NoMoreMrNiceGuy Donating Member (603 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Are u familar with them?
Edited on Tue Aug-24-04 02:21 AM by NoMoreMrNiceGuy
They gotta be a right-wing polling group can't be independant...there is no way in HELL * is that close in CA. If it's real...that is very scary.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. It was an outlier
They weren't around in 2000, but their claim to fame is that they nailed to recall last year.

I don't think there is any bias, they show Bush and Kerry within one point in Arkansas right now.

They just oversampled Republicans, it happens sometimes in polling.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. delete
Edited on Tue Aug-24-04 02:23 AM by tritsofme
responded to wrong message
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:15 AM
Response to Original message
2. Never..................
never, in a million years will Shrub be that close in CA. Another USA Today (Worst Newspaper in the World) wishful thinking poll.
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LibraLabSoldier Donating Member (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:20 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Kind of like the polls showing
How popular he is with the troops......boy scout troops maybe....Most of us in the military would rather have a shaved monkey as our CIC.
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DemWitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:23 AM
Response to Original message
6. if Shrubya is within 3 points of Kerry in CA...
then I'm going to be named All Exaulted Leader of the Universe.
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LibraLabSoldier Donating Member (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. And I bow....
BB and MM!! Little known fact, Bush thinks that Pagans and Wiccans do not deserve to practice our religion in the military. However, he has never tried to deny our rights in this respect.....Probably out of superstitious fear that we would cast spells or summon demons to attack him.....
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MidwestTransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:25 AM
Response to Original message
8. The last one had him within 1 so we are doing better
Dont' sweat it....it's an outlier.
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NoMoreMrNiceGuy Donating Member (603 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:42 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Now this is more like it!!
If you keep clicking on "previous poll" until you get CA in solid Blue(Aug 11) there is a poll by Strategic Vision that has Kerry up 52-39...now that is much more realistic.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:27 AM
Response to Original message
10. Read what the site said on Friday about that ...
"A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier."

http://www.electoral-vote.com/aug/aug20.html

IMHO, Survey USA is a right-wing disinformation source.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Think about that for a second
To which campaign's advantage would it be to put out false results in California?

It sure wouldn't be Bush's, because if they were under the impression that the race was so close in CA then they would tempted to spend money there.

Hardly a "right-wing disinformation source" more like an outlier.
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JohnnyRingo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 02:54 AM
Response to Original message
12. Hahahaha...Did they take that poll at the Bakersfield VFW hall?
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bullimiami Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 03:31 AM
Response to Original message
13. no poll is to be believed
without close scrutiny and backup support from other sources.

just look at the venezuela polling baldface lie and know it happens here as well.
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Davis_X_Machina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-24-04 11:01 AM
Response to Original message
15. Wait till a Field poll has them this close.
Field owns Cali political polling for a reason.
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