For the last time, the SurveyUSA poll of CA is bunk.

[Zynx]

Look at the internals of it for a moment. Bush has a 85% to 11% edge among Republicans, Kerry a 90 to 6% edge among Dems, and Kerry a 47% to 40% edge among indies. Now below those numbers they showed that they surveyed more Republicans than Democrats. We all know that is utter bullshit because Democrats have a gigantic party registration edge.

In 2000, the exit polls showed that there were 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 22% Independents. If you apply SurveyUSA's internals to the actual party numbers you get the following:

Kerry 52.89%, Bush 41.13% or in rounded terms, Kerry 53% to Bush 41%. That's pretty close to what we got in 2000, a bit more actually, and would be pretty close to what I would expect on election day.

For the last time, the SurveyUSA poll is bunk and anyone who posts it in the future is too stupid to be viewed by my eyes and is going on my ignore list for being a fucktard.

[pmbryant]

1. Indeed

I also notice that back in May, Survey USA had Kerry only up by 1% in California. Around the same time, every other poll had Kerry up by anywhere from 8 to 15 points there.

Looks like the same thing now.

--Peter

[Zynx]

3. They also had a poll where Kerry was up by 15 or something like that.

They are to be ignored for inconsistencey.

[Zynx]

2. *kick*

[Pirate Smile]

4. LOL

[Zynx]

5. What's so funny?

[Pirate Smile]

14. I love your last sentence. It is how I felt yesterday when people

kept posting that * had condemned the SBV ad when he had NOT.

[Zynx]

15. Oh. I see.

;-)

[quinnox]

6. Yep

California is not in play, it's about as safe as Texas is for Bush. Why anyone would believe some outlander poll that shows otherwise is misguided or a doom and gloomer (always been plenty of them on Du)

[Zynx]

7. I get sick of doom and gloomers. They don't conrtibute anything except

doubt.

[quinnox]

9. Yea

What I do is hide those kinds of threads cause it irritates me too, there are a couple "uber" doomers I put on ignore a long time ago though.

[Zynx]

10. I hide threads frequently, but perhaps I should whip out the old ignore

list too.

[Mick Knox]

8. Cool, no worries in CA

my job is done then.

[Zynx]

11. Yep. Don't worry about it. CA is ours and ours solidly.

[jacksonian]

12. i don't live in CA, i live in IL

and I worry about Democratic complacency.

[Zynx]

13. If we have to worry about CA, we're screwed.

Bush won't win CA unless he wins nationally by well over eight points.

[henslee]

16. if shrubfuck wins CA, i will eat my surfboard....

Mention shrub among some Mexican/Americans and they will often gag. Sadly, they are all to experienced from hundreds of yeas of full of shit politicos. But arguably, many Mexicans won't vote just due to a basic disconnect. Second and third generations will.

This is the home of chavez and the movement, buckoos. Home of La Raza.

Shrub will get the middle of CA, agricultural belt but shit, nobody lives there. Shrub will get Bakersfield(despite the super cool Buck Owens, Merle Haggard and Dwight Yokum) Tulare, etc., (the ones that want to chop down the Sequoia monument). And they will probably squeak out S.D. and O.C. but not S.F and L.A baby.

The whole Arnold = momentum scenario holds no water. Californians are not built that way to vote party line. For that matter, neither are NYers.