MSNBC: In spite of National polls being close, State Polls look good for Obama

[SuperTrouper]

217 electoral votes for Obama and gaining according to NBC polling. Contessa Brewer seemed somewhat disappointed about these numbers. Anne Kornblutt of the Washington Post said that the National polls are meaningless this eraly in the campaign. Brewer also mentioned that Americans like Obama more than McCain by a 43% difference. So looks like Obama has weathered the vicious attack by the McSame campaign and now we have to have a united convention to build a head of steam to crush McLettuce in the G.E.

[rusty_parts2001]

1. I hope you're right.

[Mz Pip]

2. What?

Something positive is being reported about Obama? Some intern must have screwed up.

[jazzjunkysue]

4. Let's fire somebody!

[knixphan]

5. STAGECRAFT!

Kabuki theatre!

[goodgd_yall]

3. Whiclh is what matters in the General

But the media just wants to spew meaningless data that gives the pundits an excuse for talking about how close the race is.

[Clark2008]

6. National polls are meaningless

We don't elect presidents nationally. We elect them state-by-state using Electoral College votes.

[eshfemme]

8. That's a very good point! Thank you for that! n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I wouldn't say they're meaningless.

I mean, if you're down by 10-point nationally, there is a good chance you're going to get slaughtered in the electoral college.

The thing is, a popular vote lead of anything bigger than 4% could set up for an electoral blowout. So Obama is in good position.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. That is a flawed premise

We elect presidents by state. True.

State polling is more indicative of the state of things. False.

It seems like that ought to be true, but it isn't. A gambler picking sides would rather have the national data than the state data if he could only have one.

Historically, national polling is a better predictor. It has to do with the nature of polling, not with how we chose presidents.

Compare electoralvote.com for November 1, 2004 (showing a Kerry landslide) to national polling on November 1, 2004 (showing Bush up by 2-5%).

State polls COULD be more predictive, but because it takes almost as many people to poll Rhode Island as to poll the whole country quality national polling by state is too expensive. Nobody does 50 state polls on the same day using the same methods and assumptions. So the accumulated state polls are a mix of apples and oranges.

The first thing you'd need to say national polls are not predictive (let alone 'meaningless') would be an election where the electoral college and popular vote didn't match. There aren't any since the pony express shut down. (Unless you want to argue that Bush got more votes in Florida in 2000.)

Since the correlation between popular vote victory and EV victory is 100% in the era of modern polling the discrepancy is theoretical. And since national polling is smoother and more accurate for what it measures than state polling is, the practical swamps the theoretical.

Another fallacy is thinking that current EV projections show Obama up by "more." When Obama leads by 5% in a national poll, that's an electoral college run-away. %5 is a lot. It sounds better to say Obama is up by 150 EV than 5% popular vote, but it's just using a different way of keeping score. The Electoral College exagerates margins. EV are easy come, easy go. A 100 EV lead sounds big, but can be as fragile as a 2-3% popular vote lead.

[woo me with science]

7. Good. Maybe the Popular Vote hysterics will take a year off

and stop whining about changing the Constitution.

[DarthDem]

9. Nice!

Glad to hear this from the MSM - - thanks for passing it along. Sounds like some real widsom came out of that segment; of course the national polls are meaningless right now (but Obama is leading them anyway), and state polls provide a clearer picture of how the Electoral College math will play out. And Obama looks to have mounted impressive leads in the Kerry states, Iowa, and New Mexico - - leaving McSame to play defense with, well, the rest of the entire map while Barack looks for six more EVs (or, frankly, five, since tied scenarios also go to Obama - - but six would certainly be better).