Some Things to Ponder via the Polls

[Sugarcoated]

I posted this under one of the poll threads, but some things to consider:

I don't want to make excuses, I want to be realistic and I am very concerned. But one thing to keep in mind is, if there's ever a year when polls might be wrong, it's this year. The so called cell phone/young voter reasoning that was talked about before the election in '04 that didn't quite pan out, this time around, I really do believe carries some weight via the polls. This time there are way more cell phones used in lieu of landlines and, waaay more excitement and movement on the ground, especially with younger voters. I've heard many people saying that this election year the polls may be less likely to be accurate, to reflect what's happening.

Also, people are holding back, "who are these Obama's?" . . . Michelle hit it out of the park thus making the Repubs look like fools and losing their credibility if they keep trying to paint her as an angry radical. Obama has to do the same, has to make the speech of his life, a bit less lofty, but now with specifics. Hit McMummy/Smirk hard, but with finesse. The next three days of the convention Hilary, Bill, Biden, etc. have to pummel Smirk/Mummy.

I've heard politicos talk about Repubs in a panic about how bad things are on the ground, state to state. They're saying the Obama ground game is being compared to Smirk's in '04. If it's close it comes down to who gets their vote out bigger and better. Isn't that the way Smirk (along with voter fraud & supression, help from Blackwell, Jeb, the Supreme Court) kept it so close in both elections?

Another plus to consider is, if it comes down to Ohio again, remember - no corrupt Repubs running things. Ohio kicked those bums out, so, while the Florida vote may get manipulated Ohio is different story.

[Sensitivity]

1. The polls AT LEAST tell us the DIRECTION opinion is moving. WE HAD BETTER PAY ATTENTION.

[Sugarcoated]

2. I'm not making excuses

just some points to take into consideration when looking at the polls.

Another thing I'm not sure about, do the polls take Barr & Nadar into account?

[FogerRox]

5. BETTER PAY ATTENTION to a wider variety of polling

see me comments "polls". All the dairy trackers are just that, little snapshots.

The reversal is pretty dramatic. In March, those surveyed chose McCain as the stronger leader by a 53-40 margin. In June, McCain had a 47-44 lead. But in the August poll, Obama beats McCain by five points, 49-44. That is an 18-point switch in four months.

According to the Post/ABC poll, 64 percent of those surveyed think Obama is addressing the issues, and 29 percent believe he is intent on attacking McCain. The voters had a quite different picture of McCain, however, with 48 percent saying the Republican was primarily interested in attacking Obama and just 45 percent saying that McCain was addressing their concerns.

WaPo/ABC

Obama leads by 3 in Zogby poll.

Obama up by 4 pts.

[FogerRox]

3. Polls

The reversal is pretty dramatic. In March, those surveyed chose McCain as the stronger leader by a 53-40 margin. In June, McCain had a 47-44 lead. But in the August poll, Obama beats McCain by five points, 49-44. That is an 18-point switch in four months.

According to the Post/ABC poll, 64 percent of those surveyed think Obama is addressing the issues, and 29 percent believe he is intent on attacking McCain. The voters had a quite different picture of McCain, however, with 48 percent saying the Republican was primarily interested in attacking Obama and just 45 percent saying that McCain was addressing their concerns.

WaPo/ABC

Even better news

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/26/1489/36849/1002/575647

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/26/141318/566/977/575656

[Sugarcoated]

4. Good stuff

This part from Dailykos: "Maybe, as Joe Biden suggested in his speech on Saturday, Obama is beginning to get some credit for weathering the Republican attacks. And perhaps McCain is being penalized for running a negative campaign and coming across as divisive."

Wouldn't this be wonderful? And the part about Romney's attack ads not working against McMummy in the primary & backfireing - and then the mummy saying 'negative ads don't work', what a hypocrite and a tool he is.

[FogerRox]

9. How about this ?

Obama comes back from Europe.

McCain attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama goes on vacation.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama perpares for VP announcement.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Biden announced as Obama VP pick.

McCain Attacks. Polling goes in his favor.

Obama says McCain has 7 houses. Polls move back to Obama in lead.

Obama now leads by 3 in Zogby poll.

Obama now up by 4 pts in Diageo/Hotline poll.

[woolldog]

6. The bottom line is that Obama is behind.

Ignore or qualify the polls at your peril.

[Sugarcoated]

8. I'm not doing either

But the links fogerrox posted are also polls, right? I'm concerned, but I'm not going to panic. I'll be going door to door & giving to Obama consistently. It's just a discussion. We should be concerned, I am, but I played tennis for years and I learned the importance mental toughness, we can't lose the psychological part of it that 'we can win'. I'm not going to panic and I'm going to do what I can from my end.

[Cosmocat]

10. It is the "trend"

and it has been downward for well over a month now, and what had been a very substancial (though, you knew it would not play out THAT well) electoral vote lead took a while to follow, but also has been on a downward trend for several weeks.

IF the election were today, I think BO wins, but it isn't for two and a half more months, and BO has to stop the bleeding NOW, and I mean now, and start builing a margin back up.

He is going to have a great GOTV, and there are so many new registered voters who the polls are not getting.

BUT, as noted, the trend is VERY disturbing right now.

[Sugarcoated]

11. I'm hoping the bleeding has stopped

maybe the above polls fogerrox linked to are the beginnings of that.

It seems like every election year the media changes it's attitude towards polls. If I'm remembering correctly, maybe not so much in the '04 election, but elections prior, didn't they quantify polls by saying it would take a certain amount of time for an event to actually affect a poll? Am I saying that right? The media is so lame, so fucking lame anymore. It's sad.

[darius15]

7. Don't worry too much

just take a deep breath. I'm also concerned about the new Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls. Obama picking Biden may have caused a negative reaction among Hillary supporters, but it won't be permanent. Let's just keep working hard to ensure Obama is elected.

[Sugarcoated]

12. kick