NBC Poll: No change in National race Bush 47 Kerry 45

[WI_DEM]

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll out gives Bush a 47-45 point lead over John Kerry with 3 percent for Ralph Nader. In July this same poll had Bush/Cheney ahead by an identical 47/45.

Only 46% of voters think Bush deserves re-election compared to 50% who do not. In July it was 46/47 a net gain of three points for people who don't think Bush deserves re-election.

When it comes to the War in Iraq only 43% say it has been worth it. 49% say it has not been worth the US military casualities and financial cost. This is up from 47% in July.

29% say the economy has gotten better in the last twelve months while 33% say it has gotten worse and 37% say it has stayed the same. In July it was 37% saying it has gotten better and 31% say worse.

The only area where Bush is really leading Kerry is on Terrorism and being "commander in Chief" 49% give Bush high marks as being "Commander in Chief" while only 35% say they have confidence in Kerry as Commander in Chief. In this respect the Swift Boat ads have been successful.

Also Bush wins out on personal qualities 49% have a very positive or somewhat positive opinion of GW Bush while 43% are somewhat negative or very negative. By contrast, Kerry has a 44% positive rating and 40% negative rating.

By a 2-1 margin Americans find Bush "easygoing and likeable"

Overall Bush has a 47% approval rating and 48% disapproval rating. In July it was 48/46 positive.



Bush is very vulnerable and some way Kerry has to be more assertive at exploiting this vulnerability. All major polls show the Wrong Direction of the country numbers as being very high. This is the key indicator. If Bush wins with the country thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction this will be unprecedented. This is Kerry's ace--Bush is vulnerable on most issues, the war, and the economy. It is terrorism and personal qualities (YUCK) which are keeping his head afloat.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/poll20040826.pdf