The Daily Widget – Thurs 8/28 – O-325, M-213 – Nevada Switches; New Mexico Stronger; Florida Awakens

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS

Barack Obama’s electoral vote projection jumps four points today to 325. It has increased two days in a row now. We can attribute today’s jump partly to New Mexico, as it moves from within the margin of error to the Weak Obama column, putting it out of McCain’s reach again. Obama widens his lead in the popular vote projection as well today, now up to 600,000 votes over McCain.

A brief history of New Mexico’s polling since June 1: (see scale in Section 3)


Nevada switches back to Obama’s side today, as a new CNN/Time poll shows Obama leading in Nevada by 5. This is in sharp contrast to the Mason-Dixon poll over the weekend showing McCain leading in Nevada by 6. Research 2000 released a Nevada poll last week showing Obama trailing by only one point, while Rasmussen had shown Obama leading by 3. When it is all averaged, we now have Obama leading in Nevada by 1.

A brief history of Nevada’s polling since June 1: (see scale in Section 3)


Two more new polls for Florida have been released. Strategic Vision (R) polled Florida on Sunday just before the convention, and they show McCain with a 7 point lead. But a new Mason-Dixon poll conducted during the first two days of the convention has Obama leading in Florida by 1. Are we seeing a convention bounce already in Florida?

A brief history of Florida’s polling since June 1: (see scale in Section 3)



* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 46, McCain 47 (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 670 RV)
Florida Obama 42, McCain 49, Barr 1 (Strategic Vision, 8/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 44 (Mason-Dixon, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Nevada Obama 49, McCain 44 (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 625 RV)
New Mexico Obama 53, McCain 40 (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 659 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 43 (CNN/Time/Opinion Research, 8/26, +/- 4.0, 669 RV)
Rhode Island Obama 51, McCain 30 (Brown University, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 548 RV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. Good to see the upswing again.

The Convention has been rousing and should set a rising trend that will cause the goppers to mess themselves!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. I'm somewhat surprised it's happening this quickly :)

Hillary's speech Tuesday night was like a brown note, the republicans are already crapping loads.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[PATRICK]

13. Polls and timing

Usually it takes time for anything to register in poll, maybe a week or more. This may just be a Biden bounce or some other reaction, or McCain slippage. Likely though it may be because the Convention is broadcast to more homes on the major networks this time and the enthusiastic buzz factor is more enthusiastic and exciting and quick with Obama as candidate.

The GOP, the MSM, and possibly the polls themselves are working overtime to squelch the "bounce" as they did the other way trying to deny, draw out and cure the Bush collapse in the polls, similar to the hype they always follow trying to pump up the stock market. The important thing is to reach as many people as possible, directly, to counter the negative spin which too many people rely on for second hand interpretation of our party. Reaching them with the best, in unity, is added to the loyal Dems going out energized, excited with substantive issues and a great ticket. Taking our pulse with polls is not an accurate process.

The constant depressing factor is the GOP voter reluctant to lose, Dem haters, conservatives who somehow fear the Dems more, conservative Dems and swing voters who are likewise reluctant. Being subsets of the great group of the MSM Fooled who still have the brainwashed, completely false image of McCain warring with the reality, they see McCain as a beleaguered, depressing, but viable option to rally around. So who is in better shape?

McCain will be on the defensive all the way. There is no core, no there there, no area devoid of hypocrisy or possessing a shred of real character or strength. The McCain miracle will not be winning but holding back a blowout situation. A miracle assisted by fraud, criminal cheating and lies. A miracle undeserved and certainly not Divine.

One can decry the obstinacy of people in being so steadfast in being hoodwinked, in becoming truly yellow dog Republicans, in insisting on fantasy and dumbness as a way to preserve another dangerous, despicable presence in the WH, but it is not about a simple situation of polls getting honest decisions. Information, values, and even the polls themselves have been bent by treachery and deceit, self interest and hatred for so long that human weakness has been marshalled against its better nature
and people divided into sheep and goats for purposes of developing the natural GOP base. It is their base that is being deserted and shrunken and discouraged, not ours.

[phrigndumass]

16. Wish I could rec your reply :)

That's a keeper. I don't see a single thing in your reply that I disagree with.

Good on ya, and thanks for enlightening us! :hi:

[Demeter]

2. Good Morning, P-Man! Looks Like the Water Is Slopping Over to the Other Side of the Tub

I'm still not happy about how solidly red column 6 is, but there's no deprogramming some people.

Now if there were only some way of CONVINCING the rest to decide for Obama and STAY decided---

It's still a long way to November, and anything can happen (and probably will, given the fact that Rove is still breathing and free).

[phrigndumass]

4. It'll leave rings on the republican side of the tub, lol

I'm hoping this is the peak for republicans this year. Texas needs to be polled again with proper sampling for Latinos and African-Americans. The total in Column 6 will drop dramatically when that happens.

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

5. Thanks for the math phrigndumass!

Why the dip for Obama on Intrade? He's down four points in a day and I don't have a clue why. UNITY and all... Things should be headed the other way, I would think.

[phrigndumass]

6. From what Awsi Dooger tells us ...

Traders follow the national polls closely. Since the national polls have been teetering around a zero lead for Obama, the traders believe it's a good time to sell Obama shares and bank the profit. There will be some bargains on Intrade when Obama's numbers turn around!

:donut: Good morning, jd! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. Good morning!

Woohoo! Wake up America! :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. America is following Kucinich's advice :)

Wake up, America!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[yellerpup]

9. You are my leading pollster!

Thanks for helping it all make sense. K&R! :kick:

[phrigndumass]

10. yw yellerpup :)

:blush: Good morning! :hi:

[The Backlash Cometh]

11. "Florida has awaken"

Imagine that. One thing you can count on the typical Floridian that voted for Bush. They know where the money is. If they make Obama mad and he wins, they know what it means in federal dollars down the road. They won't be his loyal allies, but I guess their vote is a step in the right direction.

[phrigndumass]

12. Must be something in the water :)

or rather, accepting that global warming will devour one third of their state? Anyway it's nice to see Florida polling blue again after a dozen or so polls tipping it red.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Kukesa]

14. Ohio is light blue!

I'll take light blue. I'll work harder and register more voters. I'll donate more $$$.

Maybe next week Ohio will be dark blue. I hope, I hope, I hope . . .

[phrigndumass]

17. Yeppers, Ohio is trading at 53.5 for Obama

Trading for Ohio had dipped down to 50 (tied) just recently, so it's a step or two up for Obama.

:hi:

[livetohike]

15. I like our chances in the "weak McCain states"

Now that Joe Biden is on the ticket. I think we can take AZ too.

[phrigndumass]

18. The republicans are very polarized right now ...

The fact that there are only four states in McCain's weak column tells a story ... Republicans either love him or hate him, and there's not many in between.

I'm liking those chances as well! :hi:

[trudyco]

19. I'm confused about the other parties and undecideds

I've heard in states like NC that third parties can make a big difference. Yet most of these polls leave such a small percentage of "undecided". So what about the guys who plan on voting Libertarian? Or is that not a done deal yet?

[phrigndumass]

21. Most of the state polls are showing 7 to 10 points undecided, some for 3rd party

Probably closer to October we'll see more pollsters asking the question with Barr and Nader included. I've been tracking Barr's and Nader's numbers all along. For instance, Barr is receiving an average of about 5% of the North Carolina vote when pollsters open the question to all four leading candidates, and Nader is receiving an average of about 1% of the North Carolina vote. That's six percent total, leaving a couple percent for undecideds.

Barr is on the ballot in 48 states, and is fighting to be on the ballot in the other two. One of those two states is Oklahoma, but I forget the other state.

Barr is polling well in Arkansas, Illinois, South Carolina and Texas, among other states. Including North Carolina, Barr is taking at least 4% in each of these five states.

Nader is doing well in Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Vermont, but nowhere near Barr's numbers in a specific state.

:hi:

[trudyco]

23. Thanks -nt

[RNdaSilva]

20. Checking in to my favorite thread...

still think my bet picking Obama and giving 30 EVs is safe.

[phrigndumass]

22. I wouldn't bet against you :)

Especially now that all three sources for electoral vote projections have Obama above 270. :D

[RNdaSilva]

24. The Barr effect? Too early to determine significance?

[phrigndumass]

25. Yep, in a few weeks we'll have a better idea of the Barr effect

And Nader's impact as well. I've been tracking their numbers and it's a bit scattered at the moment. But it averages to about 2.3% nationwide for Barr and 1.4% nationwide for Nader. See a couple posts up to see which states seem to be impacted the most for now.

:hi:

[grantcart]

26. This is not a bounce

its a launch

Did you see this?


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/plouffe_on_obama_and_polling.php

[phrigndumass]

27. Didn't see that :)

Makes sense, I'm always digging below the toplines for more demographic information. The low-sample polls may have an adequate margin of error overall, but they don't produce accurate information about the subgroups. The polls from Quinnipiac and PPP have larger samples that provide helpful subgroup data.

Rasmussen's 500 LV polls leave out the crosstabs for polling by ethnic group because the sub-samples for those are too small. How can we tell if they are polling the subgroups properly?

It's what's underneath the top numbers that counts! GOTV will go in our favor with these subgroups being targeted specifically.

:hi: