Gallups Single Day Yesterday was Obama 54 McCain 39!!!!!

[WeDidIt]

HEre are the past eight days of the rolling three day average:

8.20 45-44
8.21 45-44
8.22 48-44
8.23 42-47
8.24 45-45
8.25 45-46
8.26 45-41
8.27 54-39

That last day would reflect ONLY results after all of Tuesday's convention coverage.

If we see similar results tomorrow, the bounce is REAL!

[maseman]

1. Careful

Remember...they release three day rollling averages so it is a hefty sample size. WHen you get into one-third samples you'll have more statistical bounce both up and down.

[WeDidIt]

3. That's why my last sentence

If we get similar results tomorrow, the bounce is real.

[maseman]

21. Yes it did

I have too many hours of blogging and not enough sleep. You are 100% correct. Sorry for stepping on your toes.

[TahitiNut]

7. Even so, their daily sample is about 1,000 people.

That's a healthy sample size.

[endthewar]

14. Doesn't matter. It's all about the MSM talking points.

The MSM's precious horse race will be slipping away. :rofl:

[SuperTrouper]

17. Joe Scarborough is deeply disappointed and the idiot Mika, please don't get me started

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. I don't think we need to see similar results tomorrow...

That is a real bounce!

McCain is going down, and not in a good way!

:woohoo: :woohoo:

[WeDidIt]

4. Actually, we do. A single day can be statistical noise.

If we see similar or better results tomorrow, there's a real bounce.

[endthewar]

15. Stop raining on our parade

:patriot:

[mvd]

8. Hi Peggy, you see a smaller bounce the day before IMO

So two days of bounce IMO. Interesting to see the daily numbers!

[berni_mccoy]

5. Where do you get this data from? I don't see where Gallup releases the single day numbers...

A link would be appreciated.

[WeDidIt]

12. You can crunch the numbers yourself

Looking at the results in the three day averages, you can crunch numbers to come up with the single day totals.

Lot's of folks do this and give or take a half point, it;'s pretty accurate.

There is this on 538:

Adam said...
On topic, by the way:

I crunched the numbers to figure out Gallup's daily results.

Here's what I got (O-M):

8.20 45-44
8.21 45-44
8.22 48-44
8.23 42-47
8.24 45-45
8.25 45-46
8.26 45-41
8.27 54-39

Interesting as 8.22 Obama has a noticable lead as VP buzz builds, then the day after when it's announced a temporary shift as Hillary supporters are upset. It quickly dissipates the next day. Day one of the convention makes independents less likely to support McCain, then day two and Hillary wins over all of her previously undecided supporters.

August 28, 2008 2:17 PM

Direct Link to Post on 538

[crimsonblue]

6. What happens if Obama surpasses McCain's predicted numbers?

Say Obama gets an 18-20 point bounce. What the hell will the repugs do?

[GrizzlyMan]

9. Bomb Iran

NT

[crimsonblue]

18. I laughed...

until I realized you weren't joking. :(

[hvn_nbr_2]

10. Time to adjust the "likely voter" algorithm

"Let's see now, if we say that 90% of Republicans are likely voters and 4% of Democrats are likely voters, that makes it 48-47. Yeah, that's our assumption and we're sticking with it." - Gallup demographic expert

[CreekDog]

11. Hillary perhaps?

and if you go over to OldElmtree, the tone over there has changed decidedly, if that's any indication of anything.

[WeDidIt]

13. The single day bump is definitely the Hillary effect

Look at what happened with the buildup to the Veep, then the one day plummet as Hillary supporters showed tehir displeasure.

You can put every bit of that single day bump to the effect of Tuesday in the convention, and Hillary was the biggest speaker that night.

[Fleshdancer]

16. It must be true because I haven't heard anything about it on the cable news networks

I take these daily polls with a grain of salt, but I have to admit, that's quite a jump.

[WeDidIt]

20. Remember, we won't see the effects of Obama's speech

until Saturday.

there is a small chance he could have more than that 15 point bounce McCain basically demanded.

[chascarrillo]

19. This is historic: For the first time, McCain was right about something!

Didn't he sat something about a 15 point bounce? :)

[Gabi Hayes]

22. remember 1988?

Convention bounces have come in both disguises -- real and imagined. Michael Dukakis got a 17 point bounce in 1988 after his convention in Atlanta -- and then proceeded to watch it evaporate when Bush's father's own convention reversed the effect. Dukakis also suffered from shrewd attacks by Bush senior but it was Dukakis' strange and risky reluctance to fight back that I've been thinking about this week. Kerry has displayed a bit too much of the same habit in recent days. I'm astonished Kerry didn't fight back immediately on the critical "Swift boat" ads. Could he have forgotten the chief lesson of the 1988 campaign? It's hard to imagine, if you recall who was the lieutenant governor of Massachusetts when Dukakis was the governor-turned-nominee: John Kerry himself.


http://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/specialcoverage/election04/notebook/duffy090704.html

[flamingdem]

23. Careful! Aren't they Republican friendly? Meaning set up for bigger McCain bounce next week nt

[GoesTo11]

24. This was before last night. Let's not get too excited.

With luck, Clinton's, Kerry's & Biden's speeches won't destroy party unity and wipe out that bump.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

25. You didn't mention the best part... undecided dropped 7%

I have no idea whether it will last, but the most striking thing in the last day figure is that it is the highest "decided" of the year and a 7 point drop in undecideds from the day before.

Obama up 9. McCain down 2. The Hillary effect is profound.

(Yes, it can be statistical noise in a single sample, but when the noise happens to match exactly what one would predict from a call to undecided Democrats to get on board... that 7% isn't far from estimates of the disaffected Hillary vote.)

[LongDistanceRunner]

26. McCain was right, we did get a 15 point bump

Gobama!!