The real way to predict the Presidential race?

[physioex]

I was just thinking where can we keep tabs on the odds people are placing in Las Vegas on the Election. I think it might be the MOST accurate poll there is......

People don't like to kid around when they put their money where their mouth is.....

[featherman]

1. Doubt there is a Vegas line but the Brits bet this regularly

problem is the conventional wisdom is that the incumbent has a giant home field advantage. Last lines I saw were for Bush by a few. Google it and you will find one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If You Look At The Iowa Futures It's Like

50.2 AWOL


49.8 Kerry...



Essentially a pickem......


That's where the smart money is now.... In the middle....

[dpakman91]

3. EV's

it's definitely interesting that almost all the electoral vote predictor sites, rather than just national poll sites, have kerry winning:

www.heartheissues.com
www.electoral-vote.com
www.race2004.net

etc

[jezebel]

4. Jeff Greenfield on CNN today was saying the Iowa thing in the last

10 days had taken a sharp upward turn for Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Bettors Getting Excited About The Swift Boat Brouhaha....

This race is too fluid and too close to call now....


All we can do is work hard.......

[lancdem]

6. That seems to be a lagging indicator

When Kerry was up, if I recall, the Iowa thing still was leaning Bush, if not by as much.

[MidwestTransplant]

7. Here ya go

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/data_Pres04_WTA.html (Iowa Elec. Market)

www.tradesports.com

Tradesports has Bush by 8, Iowa has Bush by 4.5. These are not very efficient markets because there is an obvious arbitrage opportunity.

Also, the recent surge for Bush could be in part because of people anticipating a bounce from the RNC. They will sell once it's over.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. No election wagering in Las Vegas

I live there. Only betting on events decided on a field of play is legal. Contrary to popular belief, you can't even wager on "elections" like the Academy Awards or MVP races.

Offshore betting outfits and some bookmakers do take wagers on presidential elections and high profile gov or senate races. I just checked Ladbrokes, and the presidential race remains pick'em , 5/6 or bet 60 to win 50 on either side. It has either been pick-em or Bush a slight favorite all year.

[featherman]

9. UK Betting Zone list seven available lines and all are exactly

the same: dead even. You can bet either Bush or Kerry at 5/6 (bet 50 to win 60) Also read an article about some Canadian who put $110,000 down (to win $100,000) on Bush when the odds were more in his favor (11/10). I like both at 5/6 now after a horrendous August. Be smart to look again regularly in October. It is early yet.
p.s. The Iowa University thing is so heavily weighted to the incumbent that I find it unfortunate and out of touch. It favored Gore+good economy by a LOT.

[physioex]

10. Thanks everyone who replied....

:hi: