Some thoughts on the latest WP-ABC poll (K49-B48)

[ps1074]

They have Kerry leading Bush by 49% to 48%.

1. They must have pushed the undecided voters really hard. This leaves plenty of room for mistakes.

2. Race - when listing results by race they surely have underpolled the black voters. The black voter column is in red and according to them red means that there were not enough respondents in a particular category to insure reliable results.

3. Seniors - Why Bush leads in the seniors category? I thought seniors tend to vote democrat. Bush leads Kerry by 9 points in the 61+ age column. Why are seniors going against their own interest?

4. Young voters - Kerry is leading Bush among 18-30 voters by 8 points - 53 to 45. He needs very big turnout from this group on election day.

5. Midwest - Kerry leads Bush by 4 points - 51 to 47. This is very good news but still not enough of a lead to feel comfortable.

[katmondoo]

1. New Poll Numbers

I do NOT believe the new polls. There is no way in hell seniors are for Bush. We hATE him.

[goju]

2. Youre gonna give yourself a heart attack

You cant keep up the poll game like that without working yourself into a frenzy. ;) Unless its a casual interest?

I dont even pay attention to them until a few weeks out. Thats when you start to see the payoff from all our work.

[SaveElmer]

3. The KEY point from this survey

From the Washington Post article

<snip>

At the end of the Democratic convention, Kerry enjoyed an eight-point advantage over Bush on that question. Taken together, the results of the poll suggest that Bush's recent gains have come from eroding perceptions of Kerry and not as a consequence of improved views of Bush's performance as president.


<snip>

People have made their judgements about Bush. The change in margin between them is the result of Kerry's fluctuating numbers. It's there for the taking. The debates are going to be HUGE.

[9119495]

4. Seniors can be just as dumb as farmers

My state elects mostly Republicans--even though that party always wants to cut their subsides. They win because they know God personally. For many seniors, it is the tax issue. We have dumb-fucking seniors in my town that block every effort to increase school funding because 1. They don't even have kids in school, and 2. They can't afford what was $4.00 a month in the last vote.

Never underestimate the power of stupidity. Yes, seniors and Southerners ought to vote with us but...