White women are a REPUBLICAN leaning voting block

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

There is sometimes a sense here that white women compose a traditional Democratic demographic and are being uniquely perverse in 2008.

That is not the case. Women are a big Dem group but white women are a Republican-leaning voting block. John Kerry lost white women by nine points. That's a lot of points! (He did 6 points better among all Americans than among white women. That really puts it in perspective.) Married women are a big Republican Voting block. White women are a pug-leaning group that only rarely swings Dem. Single women and women of color are overwhelmingly Democratic which is why women are on average Dem supporters.

The media has played a lot of games this year talking about 'white women' during the primaries as if they were talking about ALL white women, rather than specifying that the topic of discussion during the primaries was Democratic white women. White women are, as a class, not Hillary voters. They are BUSH voters. Maybe Hillary could have run close among white women overall, but that's an anomaly. Though herself a married white woman, Hillary would have lost married white women by a lot.

The idea of white women voting for McCain/Palin is no more perverted than the fact they voted for Bush/Cheney, Nixon/Agnew or Reagan/Bush. Republicans suck every year, not just this year.

Women are, on average, more religiously motivated than men. Most fundy loons, evolution deniers and abortion clinic protesters are white women. Some of the white women who have moved toward Palin are religious fanatics who were scared off McCain at first. (Obama is more comfortable talking about Jesus than McCain is. But Palin is the real fundy deal.)

I have no doubt that many white women are racist, but race need not be invoked to explain current trends. I suspect Obama will do better among white women than John Kerry did, which somewhat undermines a narrow racial analysis.

They are REPUBLICANS, and were always likely to "come home" late to their baseline party leanings, just as all voters tend to.

And Republican voters voting Republican is not a headline.

All these "why can't Obama win white women?" media stories are MSM trouble-making, seeking to highlight race. The media loves the "Obama has trouble with whites" story even though the real story is "All Democrats have trouble with whites." No Dem has won the national white vote since 1964. Why didn't they ask why Al Gore couldn't win white women? I dont have the numbers in front of me but I'll bet he didn't. But that's not a spicy 'racial conflict' story so we didn't hear that every day. Obama is doing a lot better with white women than with white men, but we don't see nearly as many news stories about that.
___________________

As with all posts about demographics, this is about the average (50%+) voting behavior of groups. There are millions and millions of white women who voted for Kerry and will vote for Obama, including (I would guess) a plurality of DUers. It's just that there are mathematically a few more out there in the electorate who don't.

[melody]

1. All the married white women I know are for Obama

Every single one.

[madmax]

13. Do I fit the profile?

I'm white, married, grandma, middle age (59 shhh!), college degree, middle class, socially liberal/fiscally conservative. I've considered myself independent but, find myself voting Dem every time. Furthermore, until this election Roe v. Wade was never the main issue for me. I don't believe the Repugs will ever, ever lose that little chestnut. This time I'm not so sure - since with Palin we get a 'true believer' as opposed to most sycophant Republicans.

[melody]

17. The GOP is now so shamelessly amoral and far-right wing, I could NEVER vote for one

The Democratic Party is the only recourse that isn't a losing team.

[Kalyke]

15. Same here, including me and some older women I know.

I don't understand this "white women are Republicans" thing.

[seabeyond]

2. thank you. and i think. n/t

[azmouse]

3. This married white woman is for Obama!

[seabeyond]

6. i am white, married, with kids, upper income, country club, and christian, voting obama too......

so?

[renie408]

12. I win. I am white, two kids, minivan, middle class, a FARMER, was born, raised and live in SC,

married my high school sweetheart, homeschooled my daughter....and I am voting Obama.

I always get a kick out of the fact that we are liberals and Repukes think of liberals as being drug using, sexually promiscuous, baby killing, no morals freaks. We are about as NOT that as you can be!

[seabeyond]

20. bah hahhaha. lol lol. you made me laugh. i had a college repug come to my house

get this..... 29 and mexican and lots of family on welfare, having screwed my 17 yr old niece and got preg, video girls he was having sex with and putting on internet...... i could go on

came to my house to meet family while i cook and take care of all.... living the conservative traditional role. and he says

i am surprised you have a flag on the pole

ya.... and i am christian too

lol.

told him, your party doesnt own the flag.

he started in about moral values and christianity and my eyebrow rose..... ya, and you want to lecture me on christianity now???????

it is the hypocrisy.

[renie408]

26. Yep

My daughter has a friend whose entire family are RABID Republicans. In fact, this girl came to our house about a week ago and said to me, "Miss Renie, did you know that Obama can't really run for President because he wasn't born in the US?!?!?!" Of course, I set her straight. Anyway, her mother is a holier-than-thou woman who wears her 'christianity' on her sleeve and on her bumper. She also tells anybody that will slow down long enough that her drunk husband sleeps downstairs and that if it weren't 'for the kids', she would have left him a long time ago. Also, her oldest son is SIXTEEN and has been arrested TWICE for vandalism and driving w/o a license, he is a notorious druggie and got busted in school drunk as a motorscooter. The daughter is really a sweet girl, but lies like a damn rug. I know why, it's because her mother cares less about how things actually ARE and more about how they LOOK. She would rather hear a lie than the truth any day.

In the meantime, she looks down on our family because we are.....ATHEISTS!! Yes, I said it...ATHEISTS. And on top of that we are...DEMOCRATS!!!! She has told everybody we know that she feels sorry for my kids because they are growing up in a godless house with no morals. My kids. This would be my 17 yr old son who is captain of the band, president of the beta club, has already been accepted to Clemson without even applying, has a 3.89 unweighted GPA, is 5th in his class, has been awarded the special award for CHARACTER for three years running due to his volunteer work and when asked by his guidance counselor what he wanted to do after school, said "I am going to change the world." And he meant it and the counselor replied, "You know, I think you will." And his 12 year old sister who makes straight A's, is the youngest member of the marching band, volunteers time to walk dogs at a local shelter, helps me train horses and who I have been told by her teachers is a DREAM to have in class.

Yes, it certainly is all about the hypocrisy.

(oh and I am bragging about my kids. They are truly special people and I tell them and anybody that will listen how lucky I am that they are MY kids!!)

[seabeyond]

29. see

i have become a total hermit. my kids are like yours. my life is like yours, except when i address these people, i will ask...... why do you hate me.....

oh no, not you, you are different.

i never let them get away with it. i tell them, no i am not, i am them, the one they are talking about. not so awfully scary.

i just cannot do these people anymore

[Oak2004]

44. Let me translate for you:

"moral values" = Male supremacy.

Now you must admit, he faithfully practices that.

[seabeyond]

46. there is that. n/t

[Captain Hilts]

4. MARRIAGE is the determining factor, though older women skew Democratic.

If I've typed it once on this board, I've typed it a bazillion times, women do not comprise a voting bloc the way other groups do.

Hillary Clinton's strength in a national election would have been to draw off enough of these women. Obama's betting, perhaps correctly, to make up for this segment through younger, new voters. Fingers crossed this bet works.

[Staph]

16. Women are no more a monolithic voting block

than men are. No one talks about "men always vote Republican" or "men always vote for this or that issue". They may talk about white men or married men or blue-collar or Catholic or southern. So why should we think that women vote the same way?

[Captain Hilts]

18. BINGO!

[Demi_Babe]

5. Obama won this married white woman mother of one a long time ago

[geek tragedy]

7. Bill Clinton won white women in 1996.

Not coincidentally, that was the last time a Democrat got elected Preznit.

[seabeyond]

8. i as a woman hated clinton and wouldnt want ot be "friends" for anything in the world

and if i were hillary, i would have told hubby to fuck off.... right in the middle of his term.

BUT

i HAD to vote for clinton cause repugs were breaking law, being outrageous and stomping on constitution so he had my vote to oppose that

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. Yes, they are R-leaning, but a potential swing block.

When we win white women we win EASILY. Clinton beat Dole by nine points in 1996.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

22. Al Gore won in 2000 without winning white women.

Granted, it was close and then it was stolen but he still won.

[LisaM]

10. I am a white woman in a long-term relationship, though unmarried

and I hate Republicans.

[anonymous171]

11. Obama needs to do some economic fear mongering to get them on his side.

You want you and your family to be living out on the street in 4 years? Vote McCain!

[mrreowwr_kittty]

25. The Dems should do an ad about privatizing Social Security

Show images of a falling stock market, with panicky traders on the floor screaming.

"John McCain wants to put your Social Security on the stock market." (show a direct quote from a newspaper about private accounts)

Then show an elderly woman facing an empty food cupboard.

[justiceischeap]

14. SWF seeking Competent President and Vice President. Obama/Biden '08! n/t

[Chorophyll]

19. Jeebus.

I'm a married white woman. So's my mother. So's my sister. So are most of my friends. We are all Democrats. Some of us were hoping Hillary would get the nomination. When she didn't, we switched pretty easily to Obama. He doesn't have to do a damn thing to convert me. He just has to keep being a good Democrat.

No doubt many white, married women are Republicans. I live in New York, so I may skew (or screw) the demographic. But this is DU, and I'm pretty certain that most of the white, married women on DU don't need to be told whom to vote for.

By the way, I'm 42, all done having kids, but reproductive rights are still EXTREMELY important to me, as they should be for anyone who can see past the end of their own noses.

Thanks for letting me rant.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

21. Good points. Unmarried women are a key demo for Democrats.

Definitely not a monolith, since we're talking women of all races and socioeconomic levels, aged 18 to 100. But the majority vote Dem. I think it has to do with feeling a lot less financially secure than their married counterparts. And reproductive issues, of course.

[Lilith Velkor]

23. Do you have proof of that, or is this the hourly 'antagonize teh white wimmin' post?

:eyes: :wank:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

32. The purpose is surely NOT to antagonize white women. It is the opposite.

The point of the OP is that the focus on the 'traitorous' nature of white women is misplaced because they are not doing anything unusual. It sucks that they usually vote Republican, but it's not a big racial story, it's a partisan story.

The media loves to talk about race, but I will bet Obama does better among white voters than Kerry did, so the racial focus is to get ratings, not serious analysis.

Dems always do badly among whites, but that pedestrian fact is dressed up by the media this year into "why won't whites vote for Obama???"

It's a bogus story-line that exaggerates racial divisions for sensationalism in a way that probably doesn't help our candidate one bit..


As to the proof angle, what I'm saying is so un-extraordinary that I wouldn't think it needs to be proven. Dems almost never win white women in national elections.

[azmouse]

34. I thought it was white men that the Dems had trouble with?

Especially when you look at the Rep convention and almost all of their candidates being white males.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

40. Pugs DOMINATE among white men, have a smaller advantage among white women

[Oak2004]

50. They have an advantage among white *married* women

Which (unfortunately) makes sense: some women still can be influenced by their husbands to vote as the husband prefers (traditional marriage "values" still exist out there), and depending upon how much of a talk radio yahoo Republican he is, voting Republican might be a necessity to preserve the marriage.

No, I'm not so stupid as to think this is a summary of all, or even most, white married women. This need be true only for a few percent of married women for this to turn the white married women demographic towards "leans Republican."

[Lilith Velkor]

47. Don't give me that 'everybody knows' bullshit

If Dems always did badly among whites, they'd never win any elections except mayor of DC.

Unless you provide a link to real statistical data, your assertion is unproven, and given the timing of this post, antagonistic.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

53. You can be nasty or you can be ignorant, but one at a time please.

The only Democrat to win white women in a presidential race since 1964 is Bill Clinton.

All other Dems since LBJ lost white women, including Carter and Gore. (They lost white women by narrower margins than most, but still lost among that particular group.)

You have been informed of a fact. You are free to disbelieve it or verify it.

[pecwae]

51. And it's getting old.

[amborin]

24. how appeal to them? McCain ===NUCLEAR ANIHILATION and the DRAFT n/t

[cali]

27. Why are so many on this thread responding with personal anecdotes?

Obviously millions of white women vote for dem presidential candidates, but Kurt's point is that the majority, over the last couple of presidential election cycles have voted for the repuke.

[renie408]

28. Because we are BAD and we deserve to be PUNISHED. Thank god you are around

to do the job!

[cali]

31. what's your problem? I simply find it curious that so many people

think that how they feel or who they know is relevant to a statistic such as the one Kurt posted.

Whatever, dear.

[seabeyond]

all of us are part of the 47% give or take. a LOT of women, white, married . yup. n/t

[azmouse]

33. Gee... could it be that this is DU and we like to be counted as supporting our candidate?

[Lilith Velkor]

48. Nah...couldn't be.

Everybody knows women love being second-guessed all the time.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

43. I meant this post as a defense of Obama against

I meant this post as a defense of Obama against the bogus "can't win whites" charge, but I guess I didn't communicate well enough.

I don't see any glaring failing in Obama if he doesn't win white women. I think that no Dem except Bill Clinton in 1996 has in my lifetime and I'm not sure Hillary would have won white women nationally.

So it's not Obama's fault that republicans vote republican.

[Number23]

54. There are some here who are not interested in intent

Only in feeling skewered or persecuted.

You can use quantifiers, qualifiers, data and statistics all day long but there will be a few who will only see your post as a vicious attack upon their delicate sensibilities.

I appreciate your OP and your attempt to shed some light on the "Obama is doing poorly among whites" theme dregged up by the media. Nicely done.

[1corona4u]

30. I think people need to stop making blanket statements...

about "white women". The TITLE should be; WHITE REPUBLICAN WOMEN. And yes, there may be some Ind. women, but I say, not that many. I'm getting really annoyed today at all of the stereotyping of "white women".

This white woman is voting for Obama.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

36. I think people need to accept the conventions of written English.

These two sentences have very different meanings:

"Cats have four legs."
"All cats have four legs."

The first statement does not mean or imply that ALL cats have four legs. It is not dis-proven by producing a cat who lost a leg.

In standard english usage saying "African-Americans support Obama" is a statement about the predominant characteristics of a class, or a description of the behavior of a typical (average) member of a class.

The error is to read and hear statements about classes as sweeping. They are not sweeping unless they say "all" or "every."

[McCamy Taylor]

35. No they are not. Women do not support no choice and other GOP platforms.

[seabeyond]

37. bah hahhaha. come to the panhandle of texas and tell the women they dont

geeeez, what a mob you will attract.

[DangerDave921]

38. of couse they do

Look at any poll.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

39. McCamy, I'm saying 'white women' and you are saying 'women'

Women are a Dem group.

White women are a pug-leaning group.

There's no inconsistency there. White woman are more conservative--on average--than black women or hispanic women.

And as to whether women support reproductive choice, they do on average. But that's not the question. The question is voting behavior. And John Kerry got killed among white women, whatever their views on choice might have been.

Obama does not have a special problem with white voters, white women, or any other group.

Obama is black. John Kerry is white. But Obama will do better with white voters than Kerry did. So his race is not the definitive factor the MSM wants to make it out to be.

That's the point of the OP. Obama is not doing terrible with white women.

[seabeyond]

42. again thank you and yes. wasnt so long ago we watched repugs/msm tell us we had another HUGE

problem that didnt exist. hillary supports were going to bring down the dem convention. they overwhelmingly united, showing us the bullshit about the manipulation and conditioning of the masses. happened with kerry to. how soon we forget and allow them to do it to us.... again.

just say NO. wink

[lumberjack_jeff]

41. Please provide a link.

The strong preference among women for Democrats can't be explained solely by support by minority women.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

45. This is just the first thing that came up googling 'white women voting democratic'

...while women as a whole vote Democratic, white women don't. George W. Bush smoked John Kerry with them in 2004 after edging Al Gore in that group in 2000. He beat the Massachusetts senator by 11 points—or roughly what McCain is beating Obama by at the moment, according to the Post. Bill Clinton won 48 percent of white women in 1996, to Bob Dole's 43 percent, with Ross Perot claiming 8 percent, and he tied George H. W. Bush among the demographic in 1992, with 41 percent each (Perot took 18 percent).

But Clinton's appeal was unique: The elder Bush took 56 percent of white women in 1988, and Ronald Reagan took 62 percent in his 1984 landslide. Reagan won 52 percent to Jimmy Carter's 39 percent (John Anderson pulled 8 percent) in 1980. Gerald Ford won the group in 1976, with 52 percent to Carter's 36.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/09/09/barack-obama-and-the-white-women-vote--democrats-just-dont-win-that-group.html

It is hard to overestimate the mathematical power of a group voting 90%.

Say (only as a hypothetical with very round numbers to make a mathematical point) that the country was 80% white, 20% minority, and that white went 60-40 pug and minority went 90-10 Dem.

Minority 18-2
White 32-48

That's 50-50

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

52. PS: correcting the Kerry # in the OP. He lost white women by 11%, not 9%

[mrreowwr_kittty]

49. Yes it can. African Americans are 20% of the Dem electorate.

John Kerry would have lost by 17 points without their votes.