The Daily Widget – Tues 9/30 – O-371, M-167 – Obama Crosses Over 60 Million Votes

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Tue Sep-30-08 06:45 AM
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The Daily Widget – Tues 9/30 – O-371, M-167 – Obama Crosses Over 60 Million Votes

1. ANALYSIS

Ten new state polls were released yesterday, and three more states move to the left today. New Jersey moves from Weak Obama to Strong Obama, and both Virginia and Pennsylvania move outside the margin of error to Weak Obama. Colorado, however, slides back into the margin of error today. And Barack Obama’s popular vote tally crosses above the 60 million vote mark for the first time since mid-July.

Although the map-count of electoral votes comes to 301 for Obama and 237 for McCain, my electoral vote calculator is currently seeing 371 electoral votes for Obama. Many pleasant factors are causing this jump. First, the state polls lag behind the national polls, and my electoral vote calculator is already seeing a few Lean Red states as Lean Blue. Second, the national polls are all showing Obama leading by 5 points or greater, and history has shown that a popular vote lead of between 5% and 9% will yield an electoral vote lead of 40% or greater (70% to 30% of the electoral votes, see the yellow data points below).

Also, Barack Obama’s total of electoral votes outside the margin of error (“safe states”) comes to 263, or just 7 electoral votes shy of a win. And there are 117 electoral votes within the margin of error, or “tossups” as some refer to them.

Let’s take a closer look at the yellow wedge in the pie chart above, or the states within the margin of error. The purple line in the yellow wedge below shows where the line between Obama and McCain is currently, using the map-count of 301 to 237. But Obama’s nationwide lead is moving his line about 5 degrees clockwise (green line) and catching a few states which are polling with very small McCain leads.

The white-spotted area shows the distance Obama’s line moves, given his national standing. Ohio (20), Florida (27), Nevada (5) and Missouri (11) would most likely tip to Obama in this electoral climate, and my electoral vote calculator takes that into consideration.

I would caution, though, that 35 days in politics is equivalent to a lifetime in news cycles. As quickly as Obama’s line has risen, it could drop just as quickly.

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Colorado

Obama 49, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 47, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 9/28, +/- 4.1, 599 LV)
Florida

Obama 47, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 611 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 3 (Public Policy Polling, 9/29, +/- 3.0, 1041 LV)
Ohio

Obama 47, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 49, McCain 42 (Muhlenberg College, 9/26, +/- 4.5, 581 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 50, McCain 42 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Tennessee

Obama 36, McCain 48 (Middle TN State U, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 635 RV)
Virginia

Obama 50, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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