WTH??? in Florida Survey USA has McSame +1 but with 21% of the AA vote...WTH???

[Perky]

That makes no sense as all..

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1

[loyalkydem]

1. I'm sorry

but that is bull shit. Every AA I know can't stand McCain, why would FL be any different/

[Lefta Dissenter]

3. same reason the Jewish vote

went to Buchanan? :shrug:


(preparing the fix)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

8. I've heard Survey USA isn't very accurate.

21% sounds impossible, unless maybe they polled people in mental hospitals.

[Secret_Society]

29. Same thing happened in the primaries

HRC would poll about 20-25% of AA vote. I think it has do do with the small sample size. I also think it is difficult to poll a group and get 90-10 split which is what it should be at the worst.

[VolcanoJen]

31. Right, but it would actually make *sense* for HRC to have AA support.

She's a liberal Democrat, a fighter for the people, an admired and well-known politician. I fail to see what on earth the GOP could offer for African Americans. Or anyone, frankly.

[TornadoTN]

2. 21% of the AA vote? I find that highly questionable

I really would like to get in the mind of these people if they exist, which I have my doubts that they do.

[RagAss]

7. They don't exist...Repug fraud machine is giving itself cover for when they steal it...

[TornadoTN]

28. You have a point.

When we first look at that poll, that's the first number that we see that doesn't quite fit. It makes us question and wonder where these people are.

And that's all it takes to plant the seed of doubt and the seed of plausibility. In turn, that's all the GOP needs if they have to steal the election.

[Binka]

4. Horse Shit. Sneer & Plastic Grin Cost Extra

[FloridaGrl]

5. Bullshit

[qanda]

6. NOT POSSIBLE!!!!

I'm black and don't know one other black person that even thinks McCain is sane.

[elkston]

9. Look. Blacks are not a monolith. However, I agree that 21% is pretty high

Just the luck of the draw that their sample included the minority who are voting against Obama.

[mwb970]

10. I don't believe anything coming out of that crazy state.

There's clearly something wrong with the people who live there, as well as the journalists who report on Florida doings. Is there something about lower latitude numbers that causes insanity?

[Pirate Smile]

11. I don't believe those numbers but it did remind me that it was only in Florida

that Obama has twice been interrupted by black protesters.

Florida, Florida, Florida!

[secondwind]

12. maybe there are a lot of AA Evangelicals down there. these are "one-issue" voters

[Curtland1015]

15. Yup. A lot of baptists down there being told from the pulpit that McCain is the answer...

...and being told Obama is a muslim, etc, etc, etc...

[NotThisTime]

23. That's exactly it, I would believe it....

[mod mom]

13. If you were going to hold a coup, wouldn't you infilitrate the pollsters? How many

people bother to check the details?

[phrigndumass]

14. That is SUSA's skew this year, it seems

It's not just in their Florida poll, it's in all their polls.

African American polling from SUSA for McCain:
California: 22%
Connecticut: 22%
Indiana: 21%
Kansas: 21%
Kentucky: 19%
New Jersey: 20%
Oklahoma: 25%

National Average for McCain: 5.11% with 4% Undecided

It doesn't make sense.

:hi:

[Marsala]

16. McCain trails by 1 in *men* but still leads?!

Impossible.

[Princess Turandot]

17. Only 58 black folks were polled..

out of 599 people in total, 12 of whom opted for McCain. (One of the pop-up options on the left hand side is to show frequencies.) That may well be skewing the results!

[Perky]

18. Sample size was way to small obviously

[Robbins]

19. Blacks

Obama will not get 100 percent of Blacks.But,he will get 90/91 percent of Blacks In all states.If
Anyone thinks Mccain can get more black votes than Hillary against Obama they are crazy.

The Daily Kos Tracking Poll has Obama with 94 percent of the Black Vote(and 67 percent of the
Hispanic vote)

The Best Mccain can do with Blacks Is 5 to 9/10 Percent.About what Bush got from Blacks In 2000.

Much Is made about the so called Bradley efect but go back to the primarys and Obama often did
better than Polls suggested especilly In Southern States(Kentuckey and West Virginia the exception
to this)

[galaxy21]

20. reverse bradley effect?

A lot of blacks might say they won't vote for him, in case people think its only because he's black.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. I don't believe that at all.

[Teaser]

22. robo-polls = button pushing mistakes

that can explain a lot of the error you see in subgroups. Also, subpopulations are smaller samples and can have larger errors.

[jonnyblitz]

24. are you stunned that all AA's don't think exactly alike? do you

also think that it's Obama's fault because he didn't get the Congressional Black Caucus to all vote FOR the bailout? after all, THAT belief is alone the same line of thinking. :shrug:

[Perky]

25. Umm No

I am suggesting that 21% of AA voters is about twice as high as anything that I have seen since Iowa and New Hanpshire validates Obama's legitimacy within the AA community,

[Perky]

26. The PPP poll today show only 7% of AAs in FL for McCain

[Robbins]

30. PPP

That poll seems more right.Hard for me to Imagne Obama getting less Black Votes than Clinton,Gore,and
Kerry.Mccain's best case sceniro would be to get 9 or 10 Percent Black Support.

[uponit7771]

27. 21% is false, there should be some other number

[oberliner]

32. Be advised - the "21 percent" of the AA vote in this survey is actually 12 people

This survey interviewed 600 people.

60 of them were African-American.

12 of those African-Americans said they would vote for McCain.

Pretty small sample size.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. It's the sample size.

Let's say there are three blacks on my street and two support Obama and one supports McCain.

That's 33% of the blacks on my street who support McCain. Even though it's only one voter.

It can skew the results just a bit.

[mvd]

34. I think so, too

Also strange that women are supporting McCain more than men. I think this is one of SUSA's throw out polls - I bet Obama leads.