Mark. My. Words. We *WILL* win Virginia!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

I want to share some of my experiences in the last 6 weeks or so canvassing in Virginia. I live in Maryland and have been working together with other Marylanders and folks from D.C. Many of us meet in Bethesda at the main Obama headquarters in Maryland to organize for Virginia. Every weekend, the campaign sends us to various towns far into Virginia (and outside of NoVa where Obama is sure to win). Over the last six weeks or so, I've personally witnessed a sea change in voter perception, and let me tell you, Obama WILL win Virginia!!!

Canvassers have been dispatched to some of the most Republican strongholds across the state and many rural areas. At the campaign headquarters, I have met many Republicans who are actually volunteering for Obama. In fact, there was a white, blue-collar couple from Rural Virginia that was sent to another rural area as a pilot canvassing test. The Obama campaign office in that town wanted to gauge how rural voters respond to Obama. This was a lovely couple. The area they canvassed was so rural that they had to drive from house to house. Let me tell you: they reported that ALL but 1 or 2 voters were STRONG OBAMA supporters. Even those who were for McSame seemed reluctant to admit that they were. The couple were amazed by voter reaction. Most of the rural voters were self identified Republicans, Undecideds, or Independents. Some were still Undecided but leaning Obama. The couple reported that the first debate may have changed the game. McSame is not liked among Republicans in Virginia. This same couple also traveled to a trailer park in a small, rural town. All but 4 voters were FOR Obama.

In my own experiences, I have been teaming with friends of mine and we typically divide the canvassing lists between us, sharing our experiences when we're done. Well, over the last 6 weeks or so, we've noticed a pattern: earlier on, there were a lot more Undecideds who couldn't declare a candidate. For the most part, we've never visited a neighborhood where McSame outperformed Obama except for one Republican stronghold. But even in that neighborhood, some of the McSame supporters weren't STRONG supporters but the Obama supporters were. Even with Palin on the ticket, the McSame voters continue to be reluctant to admit that they were in fact supporting him. They considered themselves LEANERS who with a little more persuasion may go either way. I thought that perhaps their reluctance may be explained by the fact that I am a black woman, but even my friend who canvasses with me noticed a similar pattern and he is a white male, a former conservative Republican himself. My understanding is that the McSame and Obama LEANERS and UNDECIDEDS will be courted again by both Obama and McSame volunteer teams. I'm hoping that many of these voters may have been swayed by the first debate.

We had great success this past weekend, and I believe that the debates basically changed the game entirely. We knocked on 110 homes on Saturday and 120 houses on Sunday. On Saturday, we traveled to Leesburg, VA. Of the 110 houses, about 50 weren't home or the wrong address. Of the remaining 60, the overwhelming majority were STRONG Obama supporters. We had NO LEANING Obama voters. Together, we got 5 McSame voters, 3 of those STRONG McSame, 2 LEANING McSame. There were some who refused to speak to us. We put those in the McSame camp just in case. There were about 9 REFUSALS. So even with the REFUSED and the McSame LEANERS and STRONG supporters, McSame totaled 14 supporters. The rest were STRONG Obama.

On Sunday, we traveled to Manassas and Woodbridge, Virginia, about 1 hour and 15 minutes outside of D.C. Of the 120 houses we knocked on, about 40 people weren't home. Most people were home watching the Redskins game. Of the 80 voters we reached, we only got TEN--that's 10!!--McSame LEANERS and STRONG supporters. The McSame supporters were split in half: one-half STRONG and one-half LEANING. Let me repeat: ONLY 10 of the 80 voters we had contact with were LEANERS or STRONG McSame voters. The rest, that's about 70 were Obama supporters. None were Obama LEANERS!!!!!

I will keep ya'll posted on how this weekend goes. This will be the big push. We will travel by bus deeper into southern Virginia where there's a lot more RED. This will be the test. However, in all honesty, population is higher in NoVA and the middle part of the state where we've been the last few weeks. If turnout is HUGE, then all we need is Richmond and Hampton Roads where there is a high black population, and Obama will win. But the big deal is that it is the Republicans and Independents that will put Obama over the top. We witnessed this in the Virginia primary in which Obama won the state with overwhelming support from Republicans and Independents who could vote in the open primary.

Finally, I'll leave you guys with a cute story: when we returned to the campaign office in Woodbridge, VA on Sunday, an older man was phone banking. He put the person on hold and asked one of the campaign volunteer directors how the voter could obtain a "Republicans for Virginia" sign. The campaign director told him to tell the voter to go to Obama's website and purchase a sign from there. After a second, the phone banker told the director that the voter didn't want a yard sign, he wanted an Obama banner. Baffled, the director asked why. The phone banker replied that the voter had stated that his entire neighborhood is Republican and wanted a banner to display in front of the subdivision entrance because all of his neighborhors and everyone he knows in his town are Republicans voting for Obama!!

For anyone who doubts that the ground game makes a difference, I strongly urge you to get out and canvass. Speak to voters. This may be shocking to some, but I am an introvert by nature, but I still get out and talk to voters. I'm amazed by the fact that people are engaged and do care and want to talk about this election, and it works. Even the McSame supporters are nice for the most part because a smile matters, and you never know: a McSame LEANER could be persuaded to vote for Obama simply due to a pleasant exchange with an Obama volunteer. It does make a difference.

[liberalpress]

1. BHO gets at least 300 electoral votes

Bank on it

[demnan]

2. Thank you so much

for coming down to help us canvass in Woodbridge. Your help will make a difference. I hope we meet at some point. I met some wonderful canvassers from Annapolis on Sunday after canvassing and they had their very own Vote For Change Bus. I agree with you that Virginia will go blue and I think our neighbors in Maryland and DC who are helping to make it possible. :loveya:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. I hope so, too. I'm devoting the remaining weekends to canvassing my heart out.

I am finding that I actually enjoy it. I'd rather be on the ground than on the phone. I'm not a phone person.

[DemsUnited]

3. Yes we WILL win VA!

Been doing what you've been doing except in the Northern VA area (where I live). As you said, No Va. is Obama territory, so the key here is voter registration and making darn sure we deliver turnout, turnout, turnout.

Exciting times, my Maryland friend. Who believes that Virginia is turning out to be an honest to goodness swing state??

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. I believe it will turn BLUE. You guys have a fantastic governor and a leader in the Senate

Warner is demolishing Gilmore and is expected to win by at least 30 points. That's crazy! We are working to schedule events with Warner and Obama together and perhaps Obama can ride Warner's popularity coattails. ;)

[Duppers]

4. I sure hope you're right

I live in Hampton Roads and Obama signs disappear here. It's a non-thinking, military area, you know.

I've asked any and all friendly AA folks I meet if they are registered and voting. Most tell me that don't vote!!! It's sad. So, I sure hope you're right.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. Hampton Roads and Richmond is going to be the major test.

I am hoping that those who refuse to be engaged in the process will be offset by the many enthusiastic supporters in NoVA and by the Republicans and Independents. But you're right: there's a lot of work to do outside of NoVA and the surrounding metropolitan areas. It won't be easy but I'm convinced that it can be done. The key is turnout and NoVa may be able to carry the state due to population surge in the major counties. Obama won all three major counties with high turnout, and he won decisively. In fact, he performed better in VA than in Maryland, which is Obama Country, through and through.

[cbc5g]

5. AND we'll have 2 (D) senators from VA as well

[my3boyz]

6. Thank you for sharing this. I live in Williamsburg and I keep seeing so many

McCain/Palin bumper stickers and signs. Ugh...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. Yeah, I have seen McSame/Palin signs around Williamsburg and it's a bit

disheartening, but at the same time, the WaPost had an article last week about how the McSame campaign has been giving away a lot of yard signs, posters and bumper stickers at campaign offices. To my disappointment, Obama offices are not stocked with enough of these items. They are running out of signs and not printing more. Many voters are angry because they have ordered from the website which takes so long to receive their orders. I'm still awaiting orders that I placed nearly 2 months ago. It may be good news in that voters are simply more excited about Obama's campaign. At the same time, they want their shit, especially if they bought it! x(

For Obama Backers, Empty Yards and Signs of Discontent

By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 25, 2008; PW04

RICHMOND

Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is spending millions of dollars on television ads in Virginia, staffing 43 offices and sending the candidate and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., to every corner of the state.

But Obama has apparently overlooked one important element of a successful campaign in Virginia: stocking up on those venerable lawn signs.

Across the state, Democratic officials are clamoring to get hold of free Obama yard signs but are being told that none are available or that they have to buy them from the candidate's Web site. It can take weeks to get them delivered.

The frustration of volunteers and Democratic officials over the campaign's inability to provide the signs is nearing a boiling point in some parts of Virginia. As signs for GOP nominee John McCain sprout in neighborhood after neighborhood, some Democrats are starting to fear that their failure to win the lawn sign war could in a small way cut into Obama's ability to carry Virginia.

"I think they might be missing the boat," Chris Graham, chairman of the Waynesboro Democratic Committee, said in an interview. "We have so many people coming in, and they just want a sign. . . . Signs are a big deal for our people."

Kevin Griffis, an Obama spokesman, said the campaign hasn't put a priority on lawn signs, noting that they don't vote on Election Day.

"Obviously, we want people to feel like they are part of the campaign and want them to be able to show their support for Senator Obama," Griffis said. "But the number one thing we prioritize in this race is building a human infrastructure in the state, and sometimes other parts of that campaign just don't receive the same priority."

The debate over the lack of signs will probably continue as Virginia Democrats ponder whether Obama made the right call by not producing more yard signs.

Signs can cost a campaign a little less than $1 apiece, so a $100,000 investment would be enough to give Obama a significant presence on Virginia's lawns.

Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain, said the Arizona senator's campaign printed up and distributing nearly 100,000 lawn signs in Virginia.

"Yard signs are an effective grass-roots tool, and we will continue to work to meet the demand of voters in Virginia who want to proudly display their support for John McCain and Sarah Palin by placing a sign in the front of their home," Gitcho said.

Many people leaving McCain's rally in Fairfax City two weeks ago were handed free McCain-Palin signs. Some were seen carrying several signs that they said they planned to put up in their neighborhood.

"I can save the campaign $250 by putting a sign in my yard," said Camille Farow of Oakton as she stacked more than a half-dozen McCain yard signs into her car after the rally.

Farow was referring to the contention among some political strategists that one well-placed yard sign equates to several hundred dollars in free advertising.

The theory is probably most applicable in local and statewide elections in which the candidates are not well known. In this high-stakes presidential race, neither Obama nor McCain is hurting in name recognition.

So are yard signs just a luxury that Obama can forgo in Virginia so he can spend more on television, offices and staff?

Scott A. Surovell, chairman of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee, doesn't think so.

"Signs are incredibly important, because supporters want to show their support and they want to show their neighbors who they are supporting," Surovell said. "It can be very frustrating when their neighbors have John McCain signs and they can't get Obama signs. A lot of people feel like they are fighting this fight street to street, house to house, and when they see McCain signs everywhere, it makes them feel alone."

Surovell and other Virginia Democrats also said yard signs can be a persuasive tool in winning over supporters in neighborhoods that may be trending Democratic.

True, most people will base their vote in a presidential race on issues. But as Democrats seek to broaden their party's base by reaching out to voters in conservative rural and outer suburban communities, Surovell said, some who are inclined to vote Democratic might side with the GOP because they think all of their neighbors are Republicans.

"Some of the campaign people will tell you yard signs don't vote. I agree yard signs don't vote, but I do think they make other people vote," Surovell said. "I think the emotional impact of seeing a lot of yard signs in their neighborhood, it reinforces to people they are making the right choice."

One Obama supporter from Loudoun County posted a diary on the liberal Web site Daily Kos last week lamenting the inability to get Obama lawn signs.

"We're purple," the supporter wrote, referring to a Loudoun neighborhood with shifting political allegiances. "But you can't tell that this week, because there are literally zero Obama signs anywhere to be seen. In fact, I've been up and down the neighboring streets, too, and the story is the same there."

With no signs coming from the Obama campaign, the Fairfax County Democratic Committee spent several thousand dollars to buy 18,000 Obama signs. But Surovell said he has to ration them to meet demand and make sure they last until Election Day, when they will be needed at polling sites.

In more rural stretches of the state, where Democratic committees do not have the same resources as Fairfax, it's not so easy for them to spring for Obama signs.

Last week, Graham left a scathing comment on the Virginia blog on Obama's Web site demanding lawn signs.

"O.K., here we are in what is supposedly a battleground state, that all the analysts are saying daily could be the state that decides the ballgame on Nov. 4, and we can't even get signs to people who want them," Graham wrote. "Something is seriously wrong with this picture."

He added, "I have been telling our local Obama supporters the past several weeks to be patient. My own patience is worn to the nub at this point . . . GET US SOME SIGNS OUT HERE ASAP."

Obama's Virginia campaign did receive several thousand Obama-Biden signs two weeks ago. But it decided to distribute them only to volunteers who went door-to-door last weekend.

"After you knock on just 40 doors, make sure you stop by the office in your area to pick up your free Obama-Biden yard sign," Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, wrote in an e-mail to Virginia supporters.

The e-mail offended some.

"Earn your signs? Give me a break," Chris Duckworth, an Obama volunteer from Chantilly, said in interview. "You should be honored that I would put the sign in my yard. Is he such a celebrity that I have to earn the right to put a 29-cent sign in my yard? . . . We should be saturating the neighborhoods with this stuff."

To get your fix of Virginia politics throughout the week, go
to http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics.

[leveymg]

7. I'm seeing the same thing canvassing the outer suburbs of NoVa

Just in the last week, there's been a perceptible change. Far fewer phony "Undecideds" (Repubs who won't tell you anything) and more former GOPs now coming over to Obama. The Democratic base is getting charged up, but scant evidence that the Republicans have much enthusiasm.

We've registered 283,000 new voters, to their barely 20,000 in VA. That's the difference, right there.

[Shine]

12. Great news!! My dad lives in VA and I'm gonna forward your post to him.

He's planning to vote for Obama! :thumbsup:

Thanks for your incredible contributions of time and energy. :yourock:

[slick8790]

13. Absolutely! I was canvassing in Centreville on Saturday for Obama and Judy Feder.

I'm very encouraged by what I found.

[kwolf68]

14. As a Virginian living in Warrenton

It does my heart good to see this prospect. Then again, I thought Kerry would win here in 2004, but he didn't. It would be a small miracle to take Va, Va hasn't gone Dem for a President since 1964...doing it now would be such a bonus.