VP Debate Predictions.... (Place your McBets)

[Essene]

My wager:

The "Calm Biden vs Catty Palin" Prediction

The basic idea is that Biden will calmly attack Mccain and let Palin fall on her face:


A) Biden will be calm, mostly humorless and focused almost entirely on attacking McCain's proposals, attacking "republican philosophy" and questioning McCain's judgment

B) Palin will be on the defensive about McCain and trying to similarly attack Obama

C) Biden will mostly ignore Palin, only casually acknowledging her statements in his ongoing assault on McCain.

D) Palin will get catty and try some of her prepared zingers against Biden.

E) Biden will calmly counter-punch a few of these, but mostly stay on message.



It will be a lot less entertaining that folks expect, but while some GOP ops will try to claim "Palin held her own," the polls and overall impression will once again be in the Obama/Biden camp's favor.

[begin_within]

1. My prediction...

Palin will be armed with 5 or 6 one-liners, which she is memorizing at this very moment. They will be fresh and well-written lines not heard before. She will manage to get them out during the 90 minutes, though not necessarily at the most appropriate times. The rest of her words will be standard filler, just re-hashing the generalities she has been saying for the last month.

Biden will debate in circles around her, making great points and staying on-topic. In strict debating terms, Biden will win the debate on the issues. However, after the debate and the next day, the commercial media will declare Palin the winner anyway, praising her "poise" and "engaging presence" and marveling how she "exceeded expectations." The one-liners which she recites will be reprinted as the "highlights" of the debate, and will appear as pull quotes or a sidebar in articles about the debate. In fact, they will probably be quietly e-mailed to the major media outlets as the debate is in progress, just to make sure.

[Madam Mossfern]

3. Sadly

I agree.

[CoffeeCat]

9. Biden should be prepared...EXTREMELY prepared...

...for a snotty, barb-slinging, insulting jerk to show up at the debate--not the dumb box of rocks
that we've been seeing recently on television.

Palin will be much more brazen than people realize. She'll attack Biden's record and she'll treat
Obama like he's shit--and she'll do it with a beautiful smile, a wink in her eye and a large dollop
of wide-eyed adorable.

It's the pretty girl--thinking that she can get away with being a devious snit, because she's
just oh-so charming.

We've seen so much 'dumb' ooze out of Palin, in the past two weeks. I think there is the possibility
that Palin could shock Biden with her audacity.

Biden needs to be prepared for the disgust he will feel. Because it will be nauseating to listen to this
two-bit yo-yo questioning the credibility of Barack Obama's foreign policy. It will be infuriating to watch
a total flea brained joke--insulting and mocking Joe Biden's Senate career and repeatedly positioning his years
of experience as a big laugh.

She's going to be a tidal wave of eyelashes, insults, lipstick and barbs.

Biden had better be prepared to be enraged--as this flibbertigibbet who knows NOTHING, tears into people
who actually do know something.

Cuz that's what it's going to be like.

[Essene]

20. At best, the GOP hope she can beat expectations. That's not enough at this point...

Even if the pundits and immediate polls are mixed on "who won," the Mccain camp gain nothing.

They are chest-deep in lies and scandals.

As long as Biden doesn't make a complete idiot out of himself and derail the campaign, it's not going to really help the Mccain camp even if she is seen to have "won by tie."

[Phoonzang]

2. I'd also add that Palin will continually insert statements about her family

and other irrelevant BS.

[Essene]

6. id expect a lot of hockey mom and self-aggrandizing myth making, yes

[CPschem]

4. i predict lots of zingers

from Palin. She'll use them to deflect scrutiny of her absurd non-answers and talking points.

[Mz Pip]

5. Pretty much agree

Palin will be catty and nasty with a smile on her face.

Biden will have to be careful to not appear to be ignoring her (like McCain did with Obama) or to be too biting in his replies.



One rules of public speaking seems to be that it is not necessarily what you say but how you say it. Demeanor counts for a lot, which is why McCain tanked to badly in debate #1. I would put money on it that Palin's coaches are working more on how she will be perceived than what she actualy says.

[Buzz Clik]

7. None of the above. Rather,...

Palin will be generally stiff and will avoid huge gaffes. She won't hesitate to be hateful and insulting, however. Biden will likewise be stiff and try to avoid huge gaffes. He'll respond to Palin's insults with ineffective but forceful rhetoric of his own.

Because Palin will not sink to the levels of stupidity seen in the Couric interview, the debate will be viewed as a moral victory for the GOP ticket.

[bridgit]

8. I have no interest in watching Biden mop up the floor with Palin but I'll say this...

Biden ought to be able to prevail in this debate on points alone; and it is time to start turning what will surely be "Well she didn't fall down she therefore won the debate" shit around right now. Time to stop letting Karl Rove set the bar so low snails can't crawl underneath it and frame who wins and who loses in American presidential politics.

[frickaline]

10. I hope she does come off catty

Very few Americans were the catty popular type in high school. Most people are on the receiving end of that because a social hierarchy is a pyramid-like structure. And they will remember with a wince just how much they couldn't stand her type of person back then.

I think it will be to her own peril to come off catty just as McCain was a fool to come off condescending.

[Essene]

25. She won't be unless she gets flustered and defensive.

[jpgray]

11. Biden will mostly ignore Palin. His likely 1% gaffes will be falsely equated to her 60% gaffes

[Essene]

19. If he is 100% factual and gaffe-free for 90 minutes...

... then he utterly destroys the negative hype around himself and leaves no room for spin on that.

It would be arguably the end of the mccain campaign, precluding any major events in Oct.

[Ganja Ninja]

12. Republicans will claim that Gwen Ifill and the audience are .....

in the tank for Obama. They'll also accuse Gwen of asking "gotcha" questions.

It will all be very sad.:cry:

[Essene]

14. and we care because? i dont think the media will accept the attack on gwen ifil at all

[tblue]

13. All Joe Biden needs to say is

"Gov. Palin offers some great general answers about where we as a nation need to go. And I'll give her all the credit in the world for skillfully inflaming the divisions that are tearing this country apart. What Barack Obama and I have in mind are solutions that support the hardworking people of this nation who John McC has worked so hard to undermine. What Senator Obama and I intend to do for America's middle class families are, #1__________________. #2_______________ and #3________________."


Shoot her down by complimenting her. State CLEARLY what it is she is doing so the focus, when people listen to her, is how nasty she is, no matter how cute and charismatic.

[Essene]

15. Yes, he cannot insult her or get nasty (imo). He must turn it around on her...

Just like Obama did.

Avoid the joking. Avoid the nasty smearing. Only counter-punch. Stay on message...

[ronnykmarshall]

16. Putin's giant head will float over the stage ...

Palin will tell ..... "TAWD, get me my moose gun!"

[TexasObserver]

17. Generally agree. He will take the high road, she'll take the low road.

I am now convinced that the main problem in the McCain campaign is McCain at the top. He's a wretched little bastard with a shitty attitude, and he THINKS having Palin sling zingers at Obama and Biden is the way to go. I think that will sink her.

Sarah Palin's attacks and weak attempts at zingers play for the partisans who show up for their events, but that will not sell the indies whose votes really matter and in play in the debate.

I foresee more of the same from her, and I think it will fail.

[JPZenger]

18. Funny slide show imagines Biden's debate preparation

http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/01/debate_training_biden_learns_w_1_9211.php

The above is a funny slide show with captions that imagines what it must be like for Biden to prepare for the debate. It also includes the Michigan Governor, who is pretending to be Palin in the practice sessions.

(Click on the right button next to the first photo)

[chookie]

21. Don't underestimate Palin

Just when I thought American politics couldn't get more surrealistic, along came Sarah Palin. The closest historical analogy to her choice is Caligula appointing his horse to the Senate.

She is incompetent, utterly unqualified for high office. But this is only a matter of concern for a small percentage of voters, such as the present company.

Dumb like a fox. She can come up with rhetorical darts that slice through the "blither blather" of facts and substantial analysis and strike at the heart of her opponent. Meaningful? No. Effective? Yes. At least this has been her track record in politics so far.

It worked for St Ronnie, and look where that got us. And by comparison, St Ronnie looks like Thomas Jefferson next to Palin. But if she can perform as she has in past political campaigns in Alaska, battling with clever ripostes, she will generate sound bites that will resonate 24/7, and like the Giggling Murder Monkey be lauded for not being as stupid as people thought she was, and how wrong we all were about her. And, damn the apocalyptic meltdown of the American financial system which is a thief with his hand in the pocket of every American, she will get the D*** F*** vote, the same people who wanted to have a drink with W and despised that serial liar Gore.

Or perhaps under the stress she won't be effective and fall flat on her face, and repulse every American voter outside of the statistical proportion of sociopaths (approx 14%) and End Timers. If so, I will be dancing with joy for the first time in 8 years.

We shall see.

Biden MUST deliver the coup de grace Thursday. This is his hour. Joe -- you MUST finish her off.

IMHO, the election depends on the outcome of this stupid "debate."

(Pops another Nexium, chews another handful of Tums, and crosses fingers.)

[Essene]

22. She's the "most popular governor"... based on taxing american energy for alaskans...

I hope one of biden's counter-punches takes a shot at her being from the highest-tax-percapita and highest-pork-percapita state and thus smears this image of her "popularity" while shifting attention to the fact that her policies have helped raise gas prices.

[Essene]

23. I dont think Biden has to "destroy her." She's destroying herself...

Biden needs to destroy MCCAIN and go after MCCAIN, not her.

He needs to avoid jokes and a zinger contest. The independents and undecided folks are not looking for blood.

[Essene]

24. "The times are too serious for more zingers & washington smear politics. Americans want SUBSTANCE"

That's the kind of short counter-punch biden needs. Nothing more.

"This is the kind of partisan non-sense that Obama is challenging Washington to put aside so we can focus on what's going on in america, on main street. Governor Palin claims to be reform and a maverick, but i dont see it. I see the same smears, the same politics we've seen for the last 8 years."