Wasn't it Daiego (?) and Zogby who said Obama was still narrowly leading McCain, post-RNC...

[Bicoastal]

...when every other reputable pollster said McCain was narrowly ahead? And the state polls confirmed it?

Right now, I consider these two polls to be trinkets for the Freepers--they're the only ones making a big deal out of it, whilst avoiding the realization that these polls were rarely right in the primaries. It's impossible to go to, say www.electoral-vote.com and come out going--"yeah, Obama's narrowly leading by only two points." Right.

Anyway, I prefer Intrade to most pollsters. They have Obama winning at 320 EVs--353 if you count Leaners--and have his chances of becoming president at just under 70%.

[writes3000]

1. Here's my problem with both polls.

They only poll 300-400 people a night.

Comparatively, Gallup and Rasmussen poll 900-1,000 people a night.

So Diaego/Zogby polls will swing wildly because their samples are so much smaller.

[RoadRage]

2. Hell.. Zogby had Obama taking NH by about 8 points against Hillary..

:eyes: I don't trust his polls at all.

[mvd]

3. I'm not concerned about these polls:

Hotline/Daiego: changed party ID (and suspicious timing, I might add - when McSmear's personal attacks began)

Zogby: has been all over the place this year. He even seems disorganized.

CBS: consistently underperforms for Obama

The only one I was worried about was Democracy Corps. (D), but even they can get it wrong once.