Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

[Stoic]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this here at DU yet.

Physorg.com: Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

Prior to the start of the primary season, the UW researchers thought the so-called Bradley effect would play a key role in the 2008 election. Previously, this effect showed exaggerated pre-election poll support for black candidates in some prominent elections in the 1980s and 1990s.

The Bradley effect is named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, a black, who lost a close 1982 gubernatorial election in California after holding a solid lead in the polls. As the 2008 primaries played out, Greenwald and Albertson found that the Bradley effect only showed up in three states -- California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.

"The Bradley effect has mutated. We are seeing it in several states, but the reverse effect is much stronger," said Greenwald. "We didn't have a chance to look at these effects before on a national level. The prolonged Democratic primary process this year gave us a chance to look for this effect in 32 primaries in which the same two candidates faced each other."

(edited for better quote from article)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. That Makes Sense

Harold Foird actually (did better) on election day than he did in the pre-election polls...Maybe some white voters were 'afraid' to say they were voting for an African American...

[old mark]

2. This is very funny. I recently viewed a mainly RW political

forum on a pro-gun site I frequent. They are asking about polls there, too, but they can't believe Obama has so great of a lead and they are wondering who is being polled. (I guess all the wrong folks, from their POV.)

I am a lifelong gun nut, and enjoy some pro-gun sites, but the politics in most of them makes me so angry, I believe I will stay away from them till after Obama wins.

mark

[Ozma]

3. Or maybe you can help your fellow "gun nuts" vote for Obama

I bet there are some, like you, who keep silent in those gun nut sites, thinking every other person there is for McSame/Failin.

Just an observation from the full article's analogy to how foreign car owners would answer an anonymous poll about American auto ownership in Detroit.

[old mark]

6. I have been posting pro-Democrat messages for years,

got thrown off one site already last month.

There are a lot of gon owning Democrats, and a lot in hiding on the pro gun sites. and, you are right, it helps to know you are not alone.
That's the main reason I came to DU a few months ago.

mark

[Ozma]

10. Cheers, man! I like gun owners, as long as they are rational people.

Most of them are, in my experience. Some are just a little too conservative, but mean well.

[mwb970]

4. What is Obama's stance on guns anyway?

I've heard the usual right-wing fears about "confiscating our guns". Is this really on the Obama agenda?

[old mark]

7. He talked about criminals not owning full auto weapons,

which as you know is illegal since 1936 or so.
There are a lot of good Democrats who own and carry guns, and we are trying to get some sense into the party big shots to change their percieved anti-gun stance. It is happening slowly, but it is happening.

No one in the Democratic party is going to confiscate anyone's guns.

mark

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

5. During the primaries

it seemed as though Obama would surge at the end. Maybe it was just my imagination, but the results in many cases seemed to exceed the last polling. I just thought it was undecideds breaking in his favor or just poor quality polling. This reverse-Bradley effect would also explain it.

[slampoet]

8. Freeps eyes bug out like a Tex Avery Cartoon.......

We might win Indiana?

wow.

[Ozma]

11. And the Gov on Montana says race is even there! eom

[slampoet]

13. Governor Schweitzer is the second greatest man to bear his family name.

Let's face it you can't beat healing people in the bush .....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Schweitzer

[Whisp]

9. could explain why cnn is back on black black black black black.

[sclerite]

12. In Houston

Our neighborhood is remarkably and blindingly republican. This year, there is about a 60-40 split McCain to Obama, which is much less than previous years where it was Bush 80-Kerry 20. We even had people with signs in 2006 all over for DeLay! BUT, what is notable this year are many people have republican congress signs but no McCain/Palin sign. Probably half of the republican yards lack the presidential sign, and I figure if you take the time to get signs at the Republican local headquarters, not getting a top-of-the-ticket sign is a way of saying, "yeah, I'm a Republican, but I'm not supporting McCain/Palin. We are younger and staunch progressives (have had our yard signs stolen in past elections, and given the neighbors I would shockingly assume it was an older person who did it). " I hope I am interpreting this right, because if our republican, senior-filled neighborhood is any indication since it went more Republican than the rest of the state as a whole, I wouldn't rule Texas out.

On another note, we went to the movie yesterday (Body of Lies) and parked our Mini Cooper, and another Mini parked next to us with Drill Here Drill Now, and McCain/Palin stickers on it (and a British flag Mini sticker). Only in Texas can such irony happen. Drill Here Drill Now on a car known for its liberal attitude and gas saving properties. If it had been on one of the myriad of SUV's we have in this city, I would get it. But on a Mini?

[dennis4868]

14. we can call this...

the Obama effect!

[Quixote1818]

15. I think we have to be careful here. The Primaries were mostly Democrats voting

The general election is also Republicans and Independents who both may be more likely to be prejudice. Comparing the Democratic Primaries to the National Election is like comparing apples and oranges.