Here's what's even better about today's Gallup

[Chichiri]

The 51-41 for today is registered voters. Gallup is about the last pollster, IIRC, to be using RVs; they're switching over to LVs very soon, and the LVs have had the race narrower than the RVs -- Obama +4 by the traditional model, +6 by the '08 model which will probably more accurately reflect what's happening this year.

BUT . . . today's data includes LVs . . .


Traditional model: 51-44 (Obama +7)

'08 model: 53-43 (Obama +10)




This is the part on Democratic Underground when we dance.

[Chichiri]

1. Vanity bump.

[rucky]

2. Are all the LV's RV's?

and does it count for newly registered voters?

[BzaDem]

3. Yes, all LV are registered

The second model of likely voters (where Obama is ahead more) includes more newly registered voters than the first model. The first model decides who is a likely voter based upon voter intentions and past voting history, while the second model only includes voter intentions.