Predict the upsets in November

[Bucky]

There will be some upsets on both sides. This year's race is wildly unpredictable. Shockers Tuesday November 4th will be...

for McCain:

North Carolina - It may well be trending baby blue by All Saint's Day (as it is off and on now) but come election day, I don't think enough fencesitters will be able to overcome history. And the center of the ugly universe will focus on Tarheeliana. Voter panic efforts will start kicking in in the week before the election. Yes, Obama has a hell of a ground game. But a smiling neighbor simply may not trump a horrible panic induced by last minute "revelations" of "ties to terrorists" and (you heard it here first) Obama's sex life.

Close but no cigar - McCain will come painfully close to pulling off upsets in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. He'll probably beat expectations in Michigan, Wisconsin, and (again, my hateful duty is to predict, not to desire) California. It won't do him any good reaching 270, but in big states with lingering racial issues there will still see a Bradley factor. California in particular will dig into Obama's final popular vote tally (52.5% to McCain's 47%).

Expect weaker-than-polled eastern results to belie Obama's surprising strength in the west.

for Obama:

Indiana - He's down by 4 now. But Obama will keep hammering in Ohio Valley states and I think Indiana will be the stunner of the night.

Missouri - I reserve the right to wimp out on this prediction later on. BUT Missouri may be the most fickle state electorally (or at least a close second behind Oregon). Missouri will be the gateway state to Obama'a western windfall.

North Dakota - I shit you not. Perhaps it's just the Canada rubbing off on them. Perhaps it's the increased registration among sheep voters. North Dakota will make you smile.

Not really a surpise by then - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico

Moral victory: Alaska - Alaska will vote for McCain and that other person they're fond of, but Ted Stevens will have a kind of coattails. I think Obama will break 45%, in no small part because keeping Palin as governor will make many Alaskans feel safer about Putin's ongoing threat to their state.

---

Those are my predictions, and they come more from navel gazing than solid experience. But I'm posting this to my journal so that I can see, once and for all, just how full of shit I really am.

[Faygo Kid]

1. I think Missouri is moving to be a stunner.

Dem governor candidate (Nixon!) up by more than 20 points.

[mooseandsquirrel]

8. Obama will win Missouri

Easily I predict.

m&s
http://moose-and-squirrel.com

[FrenchieCat]

2. WTF??? Obama's sex life???

What are you talking about and why are you talking about it? Is there something that you know that we don't?

[WeDidIt]

5. A UK Trash Tabloid is rumor mongering an affair

Not even The globe will pick it up, but Freepers are wetting themselves about it.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Rumor mongering..wow! Folks have got nuthin' in other words.

But they want to make shit up.

That's why people normally don't even bother to vote.

[WeDidIt]

12. I'll PM you a link to the tabloid trash. Forewarned is forearmed

Please understand, it's a total trash site. One fo those things that generally spreads trash about famous Brits.

[Bucky]

16. PM me too. I had no idea they already had a pitcher warming already.

But I'm not surprised. Let me in on the filth---I'm old enough to take it.

[WeDidIt]

45. Google it. n/t

[Bucky]

48. Okay, I just did that. Yuck--it looks like baloney. But expect it to be on Fox, then elsewhere.

I need bath.

[Bucky]

15. What I know is the law of supply and demand. The Republicans will be desperate by then.

I know no details. Living in Texas, I also know what southern Republicans are like when they're cornered. They will bring sex into it because race and "religion" aren't moving people fast enough. The sex smear--whatever form it takes--will occur days before the election across the South and Midwest. It won't matter in most places, but I fear it will make enough of a splash in North Carolina.

I'm standing firm by this prediction, as baseless and out of the blue it is. I base it on no actual knowledge. But then, I don't have to corner a rabid dog to know he'll bark and bite.

[WeDidIt]

3. I think you're wrong about NC, I pick Obama by 4 points.

Here's the real deal that'll shock the world.

Georgia - Obama by 2 points.

Arkansas - Surprise win in a squeaker for Obama by 0.2 points.

And the shocker of the night?

Texas will go to Obama by 0.1 points.

[Bucky]

18. I'd love for you to be right. But I refuse to be blind to what Republicans are willing to do

My beloved home Texas will go blue one day. But not this year.

[Blondiegrrl]

65. I think Obama is more likely to win NC than IN. Just a hunch. n/t

[occe]

4. My upsets

McCain:

Virginia - The polls are closer than previously expected and I give the edge to McCain
Ohio - Not an upset per se, but since it's such a tossup, I believe, unfortunately, that McCain will win Ohio handily
Minnesota - The polls are somewhat stunningly close, and I wouldn't be surprised if McCain pulled off a victory here.
Iowa - I believe McCain can snag Iowa

Obama:

West Virginia - I've made previous posts that I think Obama will snag WV. Polls don't mean too much, but I believe Barack will win, though close.
North Dakota - Obama will snag North Dakota
Tennessee - Obama will surprise some people in Tennessee
Idaho - Call me insane, but I believe, despite the polls, Obama will snag Idaho
Georgia - Yup! Things aren't looking hot right now, but a poster pointed out to me that Obama is doing well among RV so far.
Indiana - It's so close right now, and I think Obama will win by 2%

[Morning Dew]

9. a win for McGramps in MN would be an upset

I doubt it will happen.

[WeDidIt]

11. I'll call you insane

You're insane. McCain won't pick up a single state you're attributing to him. Obama is up double digits in VA, MN, and IA.

You're also insane about Idaho and Tennessee.

[Zambero]

68. Obama will do much better in Idaho than forecast

He won 87% of ID delegates, the most lopsided margin of all the states.
He drew a huge turnaway arena crowd of 14,000 during the primary season.
I see LOTS of Obama stickers and signs here. Negligible for McCain.
Independents + Democrats outnumber Republicans here.
A reverse Bradley effect? Perhaps!

[Faygo Kid]

17. Iowa for McCain?!? Not a chance in the world. Obama's ground game there is top notch.

Just heard today from a VERY well connected and savvy Iowan that Obama's ground game there is superb and overwhelming (as you might expect from the primary state that propelled him to the nomination). The state is a lock.

Virginia and Minnesota go Obama. I worry about fraud in Ohio, so give McCain a fighting chance, but he won't win "handily."

Tennessee goes McCain, easily. And Idaho for OBAMA? What are you smoking?

OK, you're insane.

[alteredstate]

73. The win in Iowa was fabulous

but South Carolina is the primary state that propelled Obama to the nomination.

South Carolina volunteers worked extremely hard for that victory and we're proud of it.

[Bucky]

20. Iowa is the perfect Obama state. They love our guy there.

If Obama can take Georgia (and there's no way that'll happen) then he won't lose Iowa or Minnesota. If Obama can take Tennessee, I'll eat my hat.

I agree Ohio is touch and go, but I remain optimistic there.

Overall, I admire your very bold predictions.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Aaaachootroll

gezundheit

[Bucky]

36. Mystery, you've been a DUer long enough to know the rules.

If you suspect, report. Never call out.

Also, by way of common sense, don't forget Hanlon's Law. Adhering to Hanlon can keep you from being a turd.

[occe]

37. WRONG

I challenge you to go through my posts and point out a negative thing I've said about democrats. I'll be waiting...

Anyways, stop going off topic.

:patriot:

[Bucky]

44. Shhh, don't upset the thought police. If you say anything out of party lines, you're a troll

Where do you get off thinking independently anyway? Don't you know that if you say anything not rah-rah optimistic, that you're a witch communist I mean Dino?

[alcibiades_mystery]

62. pffffffft

The great "victims"

:eyes:

[Every Man A King]

25. Win Tenn but lose Minnesota!!!!!11111elevens lmao nt

[Zynx]

29. Your map makes positively no sense.

[occe]

35. Why?

[Zynx]

40. Obama is not winning WV while losing MN. States don't vote in isolation.

They vote in keeping with national trends.

[Awsi Dooger]

39. That parlay would be trillions to one

You've got all but impossible simultaneous combinations of blue states voting red and deep red states voting blue

[morillon]

49. I think all those will go for Obama.

Iowa's a lock. I know people there, and Iowa has been sewn up for months. McCain has less than a snowflake's chance in Hell in Iowa. Why the fuck he even spent the gas in his wife's jet to go there is beyond me unless he just WANTED to get a smackdown from that editorial board.

Virginia will be closer than Iowa, but there's enough momentum behind Obama now that I predict he'll carry it by at least 6.

Minnesota and Ohio will go Obama by at least 5, probably closer to 10.

I agree with you on WV, ND, Tennessee, Indiana, and even Idaho. It'll be close, but Obama will pull out wins there, too.

And, of course, I've been predicting Obama would win Georgia all along. My very Republican county is going gangbusters for Obama this year. It's unfreakinbelievable. All the Georgia Republicans I know are either sitting home on election day or voting Obama. Stick a fork in McCain's Georgia campaign -- this sucker's done.

[Bucky]

50. current Georgia trend

Maybe. But I won't bet the Republicans won't find some way to stanch the bleeding.

[morillon]

51. IMO, the only way is by rigging those awful Diebold machines.

And Dems have caught on to that little game. A lot of Dems have gone to work for county voting precincts.

There were a LOT of Dems voting today in my county, if the bumper stickers in the parking lot are anything to go by. My county is known as a Republican stronghold, or it certainly used to be.

[Danger Mouse]

53. McCain is not going to win Iowa.

[McCCain4retirment]

57. I think new york and california will go in a upset to McCain

just kidding

[Bucky]

77. okay, you win

here's my prediction map for a 269-269 tie:

[Occam Bandage]

54. Wow. That's nuts all around.

TN and ID for Obama? MN and IA for McCain?

[Morning Dew]

6. Franken takes back Paul Wellstone's seat in MN

with Dean Barkley taking enough votes to make Norm "carpetbagger" Coleman look like the ass he is.


Go Al !


on edit - looks like I read the thread wrong. Not the first time for that, lol.

[Bucky]

32. I'll top that.

I think the independent will fade in the home stretch and Franken will clear a clean majority. I'll ballpark it 50-42-8.

[AllyCat]

70. I've donated to second that. I don't even live there.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Between Sex rumors and your faith in the non -existent Bradley Effect,

I'm bookmarking your post....

You are one cowering dude!

[WeDidIt]

14. Craven is the word

;)

[Bucky]

26. I cower not. I post and post boldly.

If I'm wrong, I'll only celebrate all the harder. A lot can change in three weeks. I freely admit this is seat of my pants bullshit predictions. But I've been a Democrat longer than you, my dear kitten (assuming I'm older than you), so my scars run far far deeper.

The Bradley Effect doesn't exist in some states, but in urban states I think it does. And if you don't think the Republicans will start unleashing sex rumors to win an election (or at least piss in Obama's victory punch) then I laugh back at your laughing at me.

[FrenchieCat]

34. Where you get it wrong is the fact that there is no such thing as a "bradley Effect"

as has been proven. It is kind of like the ACORN story....based on nothing.

I read the tabloid that you referred to, and there is clearly no there there. This reminds me of the "intern" rumor put out on Kerry, complete with the gal being out of country and who specifically denies any and all of it.

Obama is not a skirt chaser. It is obvious to anyone who read his books, where he only mentions two relationships prior to Michelle, once out of his teens.

[Bucky]

41. What "tabloid" do I refer to? I referred to no tabloid at all.

I know he's not a skirt chaser. You know he's not a skirt chaser. Do you really think that's gonna stop desperate Republicans from running a smear? If so, you have a deeper faith than I in the goodwill of our Red fellow citizens.

PM me the tabloid if your read it on line. If you read my post you'll see what I based my rumor prediction on--pure unadulterated speculation and the long bitter experience of being a Texas liberal.

[OmahaBlueDog]

42. An unprovable skirt chasing rumor is really more of a liability for McSame

McSame had his own recent skirt chasing rumors (Vicki Iseman), and his first marriage ended in a well documented affair with the future wife #2.

A word about Bradley Effect. There WAS a phenomenon described as Bradley effect during the '86 California Gubanatorial election.

1) Times and attitudes have changed in 22 years
2) Polling has become more sophisticated and anonymous
3) The majority of whites for whom race is an issue are proclaiming support for McSame -- not lying to pollsters and saying Obama

[AllentownJake]

13. West Virginia, Georgia and Kentucky

West Virginia goes to Obama for two reasons

1) The economy when someone is offering you a hand for help and your in a ditch you don't look what color the hand is.
2) Depressed GOTV efforts due to Obama and McCain not actively competing for it, no competive senate race, and lower turnout by republicans due to the feeling they have lost the election.

Kentucky Bob Lunsford takes Mitch McConnel's seat. Obama loses by 5 points

Georgia Saxby loses to Jim Martin Obama loses by 3 points.

[morillon]

52. I agree on Martin.

A tie in the polls means a win on election day for Martin, given the huge influx of new registered Dems and the Dems' superior GOTV. Like I was saying in another message, the Repubs I know in Georgia are very, very apathetic this year. They're not even going to turn out to support Chambliss. Not a one of them is supporting McCain. Romney would've been a different story.

[road2000]

63. Believe me.

I would agree with you on Bruce Lunsford if I could. But I live here, I've been phone banking for him, and I've kept up on the polls. Sadly, the slimeball Mitch will ooze in again.

[blue_onyx]

19. I think Obama will win North Carolina....

as well as Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. I also don't think McCain will do better than expected in Wisconsin, Michigan, and California. In Michigan, I think Obama will be the one to beat expectations and do better than many expect.

I pretty much agree with your Obama predictions.

If there's an upset, I think it will be Georgia going for Obama.

[Zynx]

22. No way does Obama only win California by 5.5% and win Indiana. That's BS.

[Bucky]

28. Be kind. And I did phrase that statement to vaguely. To clarify...

What I meant to say was...

(Stronger than expected showing by McCain in) California in particular will dig into Obama's final (national) popular vote tally (52.5% to McCain's 47%)

[terrya]

23. I think we have an excellent chance of winning Indiana.

[Every Man A King]

24. What a cute way to get the rumor in nt

[Bucky]

30. Am I being accused?

Pfff, if I was the villain your McCarthyistic ass thinks I am, I wouldn't start a rumor in fucking DU. Get real. Or at least get less paranoid. I've been posting here for over six years and I'll stack my Democratic bona fides up against anyone else's at any time.

[begin_within]

27. Pelosi being handed her "focus" to her on a platter

[Bucky]

31. !! I love it!

(I love the sig photo too)

[begin_within]

33. thanks

[OmahaBlueDog]

38. McSame's problem is that water is rushing in through too many holes in the dam.

Obama will pick up all the Kerry states.

My guess is that Obama takes Florida or Ohio. I don't think he'll get both, but I don't see him taking neither at this point.

Ditto Virginia and North Carolina -- he'll pick up one -- but not both of these.

If we get to 9-9:30 Eastern, and Georgia is too close to call -- it may have the makings of a magical evening. If Pennsylvania is too close to call, we may have to learn to live with disapointment.

I think McSame will take IN, but I think Obama will take the rest of the "Big 10" states. For some reason, McSame has kept real strength in MN, but I still think Obama takes it. Missouri will be damn close; if you made me guess, I think I'd guess Obama, but that's going to be razor thin.

I'll also guess that Obama takes NM and CO.

There is a lot of buzz about the possibilities of Obama picking off ND, WV, MS, MT, SD. I don't think I see any of these not going to McSame, but I do think Obama will pick off the EV for Nebraska 2 (the congressional district that covers Omaha -- for those who don't know, we split EVs here). OTOH, McSame has visions of picking off PA, MN, WI and IA -- and I don't see any of those swinging his way. I also don't think CA will be as close as some claim. I am well aware that the OC, the Valley, San Diego, and the north part of the state are pretty hard right, but in the end the Bay Area and LA will do what they usually do.

The nights big "shocker" will be that the "landslide" won't be as large as anticipated, and it will be spun as moral victory for the GOP. I think Obama's final EV total will be in the upper 200s to low 300s, and we'll pick up 6-8 Senate seats -- not 10-12.

[road2000]

66. Omaha,

I think you come close to being right (correct, I mean). I think Obama will pick up Ohio, which is really all he has to do.

The odious neocon ticket will continue to make small inroads over the next three weeks in questionable southern and western states, thus giving the corporate media its horserace, and possibly allowing for sufficient tightening to make theft possible. But this year, I don't think it will happen in Ohio.

[Every Man A King]

43. I figured it out

Step 1) Make a ridiculous prediction that is sure to be kicked constantly
Step 2) Slip in a tasty unfounded rumor

[Bucky]

46. Personal to Every Man

I slipped in no rumor. I posted my prediction before knowing anything at all about the smear. I'm not surprised they did it.

If you want to accuse me personally of trollery, look at my posts and see if my 6 years as a poster on DU justify any such bullshit charge, you fucking McCarthyistic shit head. Our country's history is full of hysterical witch burners, so now you are part of a proud tradition.

And my "ridiculous prediction", if you map it, is for a 363-175 Obama victory. Are you really calling me a freeper?

[Every Man A King]

47. So its not a rumor? nt

[scarface2004]

55. hang on to your strohs...obama wins texas!!!

look, there are few makane signs/bumper stickers. all without anything are closet obama who don t want their cars trashed or there houses wrapped. add up all the blanks and we get obama 57 mkane 40 paul 2 barr 1!!!!

[dudewheresmycountry]

56. So you are saying

from, electoral-vote.com which i am following that the end result will be Obama 357 electoral votes and McCain 181... Sounds like a mandate to me... Change.... I am supporting you 100%

[joe711]

58. Obama wins Georgia

by 2%.

[dakota_democrat]

59. ND won't go blue.

As much as I want to believe the MSU-M poll, I just can't see it happening. Someday, maybe...I do believe ND is generally trending toward being at least purple, but with a popular Republican governor up for re-election, he'll win it for McCain simply by getting the rank and file Republicans to the polls.

Minnesota won't go red. Does anyone seriously believe that Obama could do worse than Kerry there?

[twistedliberal]

79. If only ND dems could get out the vote...

I think they just don't bother to come out of the woodwork. Unfortunately, many Dems in ND don't feel like their vote counts because it's gone red every Presidential election in the last, what, 40 years? And it's never a sought-after state anyway, with only 3 EV.

They sure like Dems in US Congress, though.

[dakota_democrat]

80. I think we just tend to vote people over party a lot.

The only Republicans that could conceivably challenge Pomeroy/Conrad/Dorgan are Gov. Hoeven and Stenjhem, the attorney general.

There's really nothing drawing Republicans to the state polls this year, so...here's hoping, I guess.

[Tatiana]

60. Missouri is a bellwether state - they'll vote to elect Obama President.

Also, Texas looks like a long shot, but between the Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio areas, there may be enough votes to deliver a stunner (the valley is a lost cause).

[malik flavors]

61. His sex life? Bollocks. I don't even know about his sex life and i'm a political junkie.

There's no way joe and jane North Carolina are gonna know shit about that.

[Bucky]

76. I hope you're wrong. But apparently there's already a smear in the works.

I didn't know about it when I posted, but at least one poster upthread actually accused me of trying to spread the rumor!

Anyway, NC voters will certainly hear about it if the Republicans start circulating the usual bullshit lies they're known for during the weekend before the election. It's an old trick and on occasion it even works.

[tedoll78]

64. Hmm..

Chambliss loses his bid for re-election because of increased turnout across Georgia.

Franken rides Obama's coattails past Coleman, and it isn't as close as we may think.

McCain wins Nevada, despite the registration advantage that Democrats now retain.

Obama wins Virginia by a comfortable margin.

Obama wins Colorado in a squeaker.

McCain magically wins both Ohio and Florida, with the barest of margins.

[Blondiegrrl]

67. Upset: Georgia for Obama.

I honestly don't think McCain stands a chance at an upset in any state that is currently leaning or strong Obama. Certain tossup states, like Missouri and Indiana, will likely go to McCain. But again, I don't consider that an upset.

[AllyCat]

69. No!!!! Not WI!!! I won't let it happen...out to canvass with my union...

[mvd]

71. Going by the polls now and my feelings..

I think Obama surprises with WV, NC, MO, ND, and maybe MS and GA. I think MS and GA are more probable than AR.

On the McSame side, his only chance for an upset is in OH IMO. I still think we'll win.

[norepubsin08]

72. I think you're off on Oregon, Indiana and North Dakota

I'm with you on Missouri though. I just can't read the state. North Dakota I am afraid will go red, along with Indiana, but Oregon is solid Blue. I was just in Oregon and the northwest part of the state is basically locked down for Obama and that's where 75% of the votes are.

[foxeyes2]

74. Close

I think McCain will win Tennessee but by a lot smaller margin than is being predicted.
In fact the Eastern part of the State may end up voting Obama. Of course Nashville and Memphis will support him.

[lojasmo]

75. Minnesota's entire congressional and senate delegations blue

Putting Norm Coleman, John Kline, and Michelle Bachman out of work.

[AnnieBW]

78. Obama will win a state that he's not expected to

Or a state that was solidly in the R column - possibly Mississippi, Georgia or Montana. It would be doubly sweet if he'd win Texas, but that might be hoping for too much.

My bets:

Indiana, North Carolina will remain red, like the necks of the voters that are yelling crap at McSame rallies. Ohio, Florida, and Virginia will be blue. Obama will win Mississippi, Georgia, or Montana.

[Warren Stupidity]

81. 40,000,000 upset refuglicans.