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midnight armadillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 07:15 AM
Original message
The prediction markets say...
Edited on Thu Oct-23-08 07:15 AM by midnight armadillo
These are markets where people bet money on the outcome of events. They are more accurate than polls.
For winning the White House:

(in percent)
Intrade: Obama 85.5 / McCain 14.5
Iowa Electronic Market: Obama 86.6 / McCain 13.1

This is very promising...

Links: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_quotes.html
http://www.intrade.com/
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Hokie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
1. I think these numbers should be higher
If you believe Intrade McCain would have a 14.5% chance of winning. The real odds have to be no more than 1% to 2%. Looks like an easy way to make a quick few bucks in 11 days to me.
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