Do you feel like polls mean nothing?

[holiday]

I'm just wondering. I go to another board and they believe that McCain could still pull it off because they think the polls mean nothing as opposed to the actual election day and how the votes are made on that day.

Is there a history to polls that shows polling is usually very accurate?

[OKNancy]

1. I want too, but there is always a twinge of doubt

However, in the last few elections, I'd say as a whole they have been accurate in telling trends. I also recall that they were pretty accurate in 2004.
There is a list somewhere of which pollers did the best.

[scheming daemons]

2. Yes....in fact... no candidate who has been down this much this close to election day has come back

harry Truman was down 4% with one week to go..... but no more polls were taken before the election and he won by a hair.

[Jennicut]

3. In 2004 the polls wer actually pretty accurate. I think one had Bush up by two

and he won by two. Of course, he stole Ohio but it was pretty accurate on everything else. The fact that Obama has a lead of 5 or more in almost every poll means it would be real hard to "steal" the election this time. Bradley effect too. It needs to be closer in the polls and it just is not.

[T Wolf]

4. With all the shit the thugs are pulling, I take them with a truck of salt. The MoE around the poll

numbers should be small, but I trust them only to "generally reflect" the reality.

My personal MoE is about 8-10 points. For safety's sake.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. No, I feel like invocation of the Double Super-Secret INTERNALS means nothing

:-)

[slackmaster]

Polls are at best only accurate within the bounds of their stated uncertainty and confidence level

Confidence level is usually stated as 95%, which means that one time in 20 the real number will fall outside of the stated range (plus or minus whatever percentage points).

That's when the methodology (particularly the sampling procedure) is sound and executed correctly.

There is a lot that can go wrong with a poll. The only one that really matters is the election.

[ghurley]

6. In NC I will believe it when I see it.

[Upton]

7. Check it out

several polls were real close in 2004..Bush's final margin of victory was 2.4%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[John Q. Citizen]

8. The trends are pretty obvious in all the polls. Obama was polling better this week

than a month ago. By a lot.

[TexasObserver]

9. Polls mean everything. The impact raising $, drawing crowds, getting good press.

[PBS Poll-435]

10. Polls are VERY important. Would McCain and Palin be in full meltdown mode

If not for the polls?

[kennetha]

11. I wouldn't say they mean nothing at all.

But they are kinda all over the map. So they can't ALL be accurate. It's like you're taking your temperature with a bunch of different thermometers and they all read something different. What do you believe?

Yesterday the national polls on RCP.com had the race as close as 1 pt and as high as 14 pt -- all in favor of Obama. Which to believe? I have no grounds for deciding. What about believing the average? That seems reasonable. But should all the polls count equally in calculating the average? Well, some of them must be WAY off. Should you give the ones that are weigh off the same weight as the ones that are closer? Obviously not. But how would you know in advance which ones to trust to what degree?

For sure, the 1% poll and the 14% poll each have a very good chance of being way off. But if one or the other of them is right, it is spot on and the other is the most extremely off. Do they have an equal chance of being spot on or spot off? Again, who knows?

I think you trust not any particular poll and not even the average of the polls to be a reliable predictor. Rather maybe you should look at them as models of what they race would be go under certain assumptions -- about who is voting in which proportions. I suspect that that's how you'd look at it if you were a candidate. Cause then the polls would tell you if you get this or that % of this or that demographic to get out and vote, then you win or lose by this or that much.

[Hamlette]

12. A word about them saying they can do this: I do it too, even when we are losing

yeah, sometimes I give up the ghost but usually I let myself believe we can pull it off.

My philosophy is why be bummed out any sooner than I have to.

So...like in 2004 I read TIA religiously and cling to hope.