Newsweek - Is McCain On The Comeback?

[Median Democrat]

Interesting article that essentially says that the race really does depend on Pennsylvania. Still, while Romano criticizes the MSM for trying to generate interest in the election by painting comeback scenarios, the fact of the matter is that this article does just that:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/30/is-mccain-on-the-comeback-trail.aspx

/snip

Could McCain be--brace yourself, people--coming back?

That's the argument members of hopeful right (and paranoid left) are making this afternoon. Given the latest numbers--and the obvious incentives for both McCain and the mainstream media to characterize the race as "close"--it's not much of a surprise. Over at RealClear Politics, Obama's average national lead has narrowed from eight points on Saturday to 6.1 points today. His average margin in the (more-responsive) tracking polls has fallen further, from 7.8 points to 5.5 points over the same five-day span. Yesterday, McCain pollster Bill McInturff told reporters that, according to his internal polling, “the campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers improving sharply," He added that "the race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied." The mood on the Straight Talk Express, say reporters, is "unusually upbeat."

So should Obamans be worried? Perhaps--but not for the reasons they might think.

/snip

[democracy1st]

1. yep trying to boost sales

[GrizzlyMan]

2. His entire article is based on the cherry picking of one poll

Obama will win PA. Period.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. His entire article is based on the premise that a candidate can win the pop vote

His entire article is based on the premise that a candidate can win the pop vote and lose the Electoral College...


Gore narrowly won or lost the Electoral College , depending on your perspective, but he won the pop vote by .05% not 5% or 6%...


Ridiculous...

[rocktivity]

3. Operation Deat Heat is up and running

but it will only succeed if the polls can be moved within a statistical three-point margin by Monday. I think Obama's infomercial has put a stop to that.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cliffordu]

if going back to the senate in Jan is a comeback, yes.

[S_E_Fudd]

4. That Mason Dixon poll actually shows improvement for Obama in PA...

I believe the last M-D poll only had him up 2 there...

[mvd]

5. David Plouffe was just as upbeat today, from the sounds of it on DU

He said Obama has high percentages in the battleground states and that the M-D poll of PA was low. McCain's pollster is probably not giving the honest assessment.

[S_E_Fudd]

6. Actually he said he thought it got McCain's number right...

But was low on Obama's

[mvd]

9. Yes, but that's still low on the overall margin - 43% is not good

I suspect Rasmussen might actually be right with his number.

[GrizzlyMan]

7. Self delete wrong thread

[LiberalHeart]

8. Good. This just fires up the Obama supporters who might have thought they could stay home Tuesday.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Even if Obama leads by five in PA...

It's still a sizable lead. If he wins PA by five, it'll be a solid victory.

When did five become tied?

[pnwmom]

21. When Rethugs figured out how to steal electronic votes.

[GoesTo11]

12. Everything we hear through Tuesday needs a grain of salt

Media have to act like it's a close race to keep ratings, and they also want to at the margin give McCain a little hand now so they can say they were not showing bias. They'll always play up the most pro-McCain poll in every situation now, to say that it "might be close". These people must have to bite their cheeks to keep from laughing when they say "Is McCain going to pull off the comeback of a century?"

[Undercurrent]

13. This whole "leak" is a set up.

A bamboozle. Nothing but a political psy op in the heat of the waning days of the campaign. It was cooked up then "leaked" in an effort to change the msm narrative, and rattle the Obama campaign.

Clue one was when Scarborough, and other reptoids started pimping it on the early morning shows today.

[DainBramaged]

14. We got this, don't believe the bullshit

[win_in_06]

15. Realclear is just under 6 now

[kenny blankenship]

16. Headline - Is Newsweek On The Glass Dick?

Seriously. McCain on the comeback? You could take every "leans McCain" state and give it to him, PLUS all the states now counted as tossups, and McCain still loses.

[Lorentz]

17. Open to page 10...

... NOPE.

[progressivebydesign]

18. the MSM and polling sites are actually using that bullshit FOX News poll today.

Fox is desperate... we all sometimes forget that Fox is NOT a real news station and their polls are NEVER right. It is not in their best interest.

They are trying for the comeback meme to lift up McCain's pathetic campaign. And McCranky has been trying to be super perky for the past few days.. it's all an act.

I fucking hate them. I do. I will NEVER believe that ANYONE could be as stupid as to watch McCain and Failin and think they are somehow good for this country. He can't seem to attract a crowd, he stumbles and bumbles, is all over the place, runs the filthiest campaign in history, and we're supposed to believe that he's increasing his support?

[SoCalDem]

19. Let McCain HAVE PA & FL & OH & IN & WV

If Obama wins NC & VA (both eary-reporting states), he only needs FOUR more from that vast sea of gray (on my map)

[PretzelWarrior]

22. Obama winning NC is quite presumptuous

although my hope is all of the African American vote in Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina, and other places like Indiana (Gary, Indianapolis) shift the political map with intensity.

[Dems4me]

20. I think over confidence is a bad thing at this point- and I know

people will disagree with me, but I think the things are tightening up. I think their side
is voting and it showing and McCpains attacks are honing in on their target.
I think we will win this ( I pray) but I do think it is going to be alot tighter than
we would like to think. This is just my humble opinion.

Even Obama keeps telling us that we could loose this if we don't keep working for it.

[dennis4868]

23. I think...

that McCain's lying attacks on Obama, dishonest robocalls and disgusting mailers and emails are taking a toll on Obama...this shit works unfortunately...Obama is pretty much playing it like Kerry letting these latest attacks go by without a real clear defense....just my opinion....Having said that, I still think that Obama is in the drivers seat...it' just getting a little to close for comfort for me, especially some of the state polling from Mason Dixon and some other polling organizations....

[Jennicut]

24. McLame is not on a comeback. Check this out about Faux's so called 3 point spread

I got this info from this website:http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/89171/New-Polls-10.30.08:-OH,-FL,-NC,-NV,-CO,-VA,-PA,-IN,-MT,-AZ,-National,-Trends,-EC.htm




"In new national numbers, FOX News has Obama up by 3%, 48% to 45%. You might ask yourself why FOX is showing the race tightening. The answer is simple. They changed their party weighting. Last week's poll, which had Obama up by 9%, had a sample of 43% Democrats and 37% Republicans. This week, for no apparent reason, they changed it to 41% Democrat, 39% Republican. This change basically accounts for all the "tightening." No other pollster has shown this type of party ID. Even Rasmussen, the pollster FOX News uses for its state polling, shows a +6% advantage for Democrats, and most other pollsters are showing an even larger Democratic party ID advantage."

So basically they changed the party ID for no FREAKIN reason except to stir up crap.

And this about IBD polls:

"Also, people keep asking me about which polls are most trustworthy based on 2004, and why I don't cover the IBD/TIPP tracking poll, so let me quickly explain both. The IBD/TIPP poll has been basically established by polling experts as a bad poll this year. It is consistently showing McCain leading among 18-24 year olds by 50%+ and even the pollster who does the poll has admitted that his result among that group is likely wrong because he is having a hard time reaching 18-24 year olds since they tend to not have landlines and he doesn't poll cell phones. As polling guru Nate Silver explains, the pollster behind the IBD/TIPP poll very clearly doesn't know what he's doing."

In other words IBD sucks as a poll.

Gallup is improving for Obama, Razz has him gaining, even Zomby has him up. Its the MSM trying to create a horse race that does not exist. Obama is getting competitive in Indiana and even Arizona!