Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls: O 48 M 48 in NC/ M 50 O 47 in MO

[thesubstanceofdreams]

Note that in the MO poll Obama is getting only 65% of the AA vote.
Obama is leading in key counties in both states.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15117.html

I think Obama will win NC, not so sure about MO and IN, these are true tossups. Of course, Obama doesn't need any of these states, they are just bonuses.

[dennis4868]

1. I think in the end...

McCain will probably take MO...Obama has a better chance in NC....

[fujiyama]

5. That's my feeling too

but then again, McCaskill won MO in '06. He could pull it off the same way he did in the primaries as well.

Although, in NC they have a huge advantage with early voting. I haven't heard anything about early voting in MO.

But if the poll is showing Obama to be taking only 65% AA, that's obviously garbage. He'll take 92-95% easily...and it's obvious that the state is pretty much a pure toss up....

[tishaLA]

2. I'm wondering why Obama is going to Iowa today

I thought his lead there was pretty significant. Is there a down-ticket race he wants to lock up?

[Dinger]

4. Maybe It Will Help In Iowa? nt

[Schulzz]

7. I think he is spending most of the day with his family, but making a stop in Iowa as a "Thank You"

for kicking off his campaign.

[tishaLA]

12. The Page lists his schedule today as:

Des Moines, IA; Highland, IN; Chicago, IL

[Schulzz]

3. 65% of the AA vote makes no sense, 175.000 people came to his two rallies there.

:crazy:

[Dinger]

6. politico is a RIGHT WING RAG!

That is all.

[rucky]

11. Not RW - just sensationalist.

I'm sure they cherry-pick the tightest polls for the sake of drama, just like Drudge and Scaborough.

[Dinger]

13. That Makes Them RW

drudge, scar, politico? Yup, right wing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Any Poll That Has Obama With 65% Of The African American Vote Is Odd And Makes The Pollster Suspect

~

[thesubstanceofdreams]

10. Keep in mind, AA voters are a small subsample

So MoE is huge. I don't question the pollsters motives since the pollster himself is drawing attention to this number.
With superior excitement and GOTV operation I think Obama might carry MO, but it'll be a squeaker at best.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. 11.5% Is Not That Small A Subset

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/29000.html

[Perky]

9. I think you hasve it about right.

I think MO/IN are the only batttlegrounds in play, Everything else is blue

I think MT/ND are winnable with GA/SC and Arizona Land apparently Lousiiama also bubbling under.

[fasttense]

15. Only 65%?

I really have a problem believing this poll.

Looks more like opinion influencing than opinion measuring.

[Mass]

16. 65 %? Really. Well, we can forget this poll, in this case.

I'd like to see the internals of the NC poll too.

IN and MO will be close, but I would not count them out. Remember MO in 2000 and 2006 elected a Democratic Senator with a very small majority.