Big Gallup bump for Obama!!! +11, +9, +8

[scheming daemons]

Up +3 in the LV2 model.


The Informercial bounce!

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[Thrill]

1. Damn the networks are running out of polls to cherry pick

[Hope And Change]

2. BS!Everybody knows that the polls are tightening...

:sarcasm:

[progressoid]

23. That's right - I heard all about it on Fox.

[TheCoxwain]

3. How do get the info up so fast? what's your trick?

[scheming daemons]

5. Go to gallup.com at 12:59pm..... hit refresh repeatedly until the numbers come up...

;-)

[nickn777]

4. POLL SHOCKER!!! Obama +11.........Developing...

[Schulzz]

6. Can everybody now stop the tightening meme?

:woohoo:

[cbc5g]

7. +8 in TRADITIONAL!!

BREAKING


DRUDGES HEAD EXPLODES

[EastTennesseeDem]

8. Wah wah wee wah!

[TheCoxwain]

9. THE SKY IS FALLING THE POLLS ARE TIGHTENING..AND WE ARE SCREWN

HELP HELP HELP


OUR COLLECTIVE ASSES ARE ON FIRE!!!!

[grantcart]

10. for the clicking impaired and thanks

[ps1074]

11. I think you're wrong

That is not the informercial bounce. Rather it is the early vote bounce. See, they have 24% of the sample as already voted. I think it is too high. The national percentage is probably close to 10%. As we all know, early voters favor Obama big time.

[grantcart]

15. Gallup's numbers have nothing to do with early voting

[ps1074]

17. says who?

Howcome they change their early voting numbers every day along with the tracking poll? You think they pull these numbers out of their a**es?

[grantcart]

40. The daily gallup poll is a poll that goes back decades and their methodology is

well established. Do some research and you can educate yourself.


Gallup doesn't have a daily early voting daily poll and such a poll wouldn't be a nation wide poll because 27 states don't have early voting.

Please provide a link that cites Gallups early voting poll, and another link that suggests that Gallups methodology is influenced by early voting polls.

BTW here is the actualy Early Voting statistics - since the information is public record why would anyone pay for a poll?

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[ps1074]

45. Well

They ask the surveyed people if they have already voted and adjust the early voting numbers every day. As simple as that.

[Hokie]

29. Where is Dandy Don?

He can start warming up and the fat lady too. "Turn out the lights the party is over." for McPalin that is.

I am going to party like hell if Obama wins this.

[mohc]

34. It has to be over 10%

Right now the 2008 early vote is 16.4% of the total 2004 vote from states that report early voting. Many states do not report their early voting tally and so the actual number is much higher. Among states that have reported, some states are already over 50% and most are over 30%. The only thing that would pull this number down even to 24% is the number of large states like PA with absentee only early voting.

[Zynx]

46. Of states that have reported we are at 16.5% and there are a bunch that haven't reported.

[Schulzz]

12. Obama's lead widening in 4 tracking polls so far.

Gallup, Hotline, Battleground, R2000

[milkyway]

13. Surf's Up! Here comes the wave! The only question remaining: can McPissed win AZ?

My prediction: Obama 403 EV McRage 135

[frogcycle]

26. I am heading to Tucson tonight - I'll give it my best shot! :)

[Jennicut]

14. Wow. Just wow. 8 points in the traditonal LV model. Holy cow.

That is the best news all day.

[Median Democrat]

16. Compare This To Kerry 2004; However, Rasmussen Went Down By 1

So, my take is that Obama's lead overall is steady and the fluctuations are just noise:

<>

[nickn777]

21. the gallup LV gains are more than "noise"

[MidwestTransplant]

18. Freepers freakin'

[krawhitham]

22. crazy people

This is actually a good result. Notice how the expanded view is so close to the traditional view. This is not good for Obama.

WHAT

OK

WHATEVER

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2120869/posts

[GoesTo11]

33. Freep analysis - still in first stage of mourning (denial)

"The Axelrod Depress the Vote Machine is out in full force. The bottom line is that the way the actual voting is coming in nationwide, this election is tight and favoring McCain. I believe we will find out after McCain’s victory that several of these polling organizations have been receiving Obama Campaign Cash in return for favorable and voluminous polling results."

[David__77]

42. Lol I saw that too...

...It's BAD for them because it means Obama's support is now relatively stronger among those deemed absolutely most likely to vote under either scenario. Why do they not understand numbers??

[leftist.]

28. Hate radio has been dry-humping the LV-Trad numbers for days now.

It's going to be hard to keep that up with today's numbers.

[grantcart]

19. This is hard to digest === what does it imean for the single day poll

As a three day average it must mean that he is way way up on yesterday's numbers.


did something happen on Wednesday - let me think. oh yeah The Daily Show. lol

[krawhitham]

25. Or a very good McCain day rolled off

[grantcart]

44. good point probably a combination of the two

[abumbyanyothername]

31. People go to church on Sunday

and McCain polls stronger immediately afterward.

They eat every day of the week, and Obama pulls ahead on Monday through Saturday.

[crossroads]

20. Thanks! nt

[HughMoran]

24. Holy fuckin' shit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow!!! This just made my day!!

[4lbs]

27. Is this the "Halloween Surprise" ?!?!?

:rofl:

[BlueIdaho]

30. Chuck Todd is out of a job. nm.

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

32. If there is any way they can spin this toward McCain...

Leave it to Nora, Gregory, etc. and they'll find it. I've never seen anything like it.

[scheming daemons]

38. Repukes always say that Dems do better on weekends....LOL.....

This poll is measuring Tue, Wed, and Thu.

[Chrisnreno]

35. Awesome numbers. Thanks for posting. nt

[scheming daemons]

36. The gallup numbers have pushed the RCP average up to +6.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[krawhitham]

37. State Lag

I know Nate blew the 1 week lag rumor out of the water a few days ago, but stated a 24-48 lag was possible because some still sit on state numbers for a day or two.

48 hours would put us in the butter zone for a complete landslide

[Politics_Guy25]

39. I'm wondering if this is the dam bursting that will lead us to a 1964 style landslide

Up 8 points in LV1 is just amazing.

[TheDonkey]

41. WOOOT! The Informercial BOUNCE!

[OmahaBlueDog]

43. If we can raise another 6-7 Million, can he do another one Sunday night

Alternatively, can he just buy every ad slot on the Sunday and Minday NFL games?

[Curtland1015]

47. God DAMN!

AWESOME!!!

[bushisanidiot]

48. Free Repukelic on suicide watch.

.

[TheCoxwain]

49. I wouldnt jump to the conclusion that there is post infomercial bounce

the numbers could come down tomorrow ( if the mean is still around 8.5 -9%)

so at the very least we are we where ,,,,,Keep doing your bit to win this for us.

[Occam Bandage]

50. But wait until they get ahold of purgegate! This will certainly change everything!