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Edited on Fri Oct-31-08 02:48 PM by The_Counsel
First of all, for the most part, those voters aren't "undecided," they're "uncommitted." Huge difference.
I would think it's something close to impossible to be undecided at this late stage. If you are, you just haven't been paying attention. What more do these people need? There's nothing else McCain OR Obama can add to the conversation.
Now, being uncommitted is an entirely different story. Those voters know good and well who they're planning to vote for, but just aren't saying. No biggie. That's their right. Just don't pretend you're undecided. It's just plain dishonest. BUT, to be fair, there may not have been an option in the polling questionnaire that speaks to being "uncommitted" or "rather not say," just "undecided."
Now HERE'S the thing that has me ready to pee my pants laughing...
The whole "undecideds will break for McCain" thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me for the same reasons the O/P gave. But I did a little experiment with that theory based on the polling info on electoral-vote.com today. I took all the so-called "undecided" numbers in each state and applied a scenario in which they all broke 3:1 for McCain...
...and Obama STILL comes out the winner, 311-212.
This while losing FL, MO & IN.
And with NC coming out as an exact tie.
Obama still whoops that ass by 99 electoral votes.
Or more.
Obama could be magnanimous and GIVE McCain Ohio and he'd still win.
This thing is over, folks. ;)
I don't know how to post a map with my own EC scenario, but if someone does and wants to post one with the the following results be my guest:
EXACT TIE: NC (1 state) McCAIN CARRIES: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV & WY (24 states) OBAMA CARRIES: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA & WI (25 states + DC)
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