Whomever gets the NY Senate seat is going to have to raise double the $$ for 2 elections

[LynneSin]

And that's a MAJOR consideration since New York is NOT a cheap state to win - I'm guessing it'll take $20-30million to win that senate seat one time and that's if there is no major primary competition (not that I have an issue with that but if there is that adds in even MORE money).

Whomever is picked to be the next senator of New York is going to have to have the ability to raise about $100k between now and November 2012 since they will have to run TWO major senate elections (assuming that they win the first one). You don't even get a break after 2010 because the seat normally would have it's election in 2012 (when it would expire for Hillary) and this person will STILL have to run again in that election.

[dkf]

1. Excellent point.

Anyone suggesting someone else needs to tell us how that person is going to come up with the $.

[napi21]

2. I knew about the election in 2012, but what's with the 2010 one?

I always thought that when someone was appointed to fill a vacant seat in the Senate, that appointment was good until the current term expired.

[LynneSin]

4. Nope - good until the next major election cycle

Take a look at Wyoming and Mississippi this past election - both had senators up for normal re-election (Cochran and Enzi) but both had lost a senator between Dec 2006-Nov 2008 (Thomas of Wyoming died and Lott of Mississippi retired). So Barrasso of Wyoming and Wicker of Mississippi, both appointed to fill-in for the empty seats, had to run for a special election in 2008. This allows them to serve out the remaining of part of the term which both happen to cycle in 2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

In April 1991 Harris Wofford was picked to replace the late Senator John Heinz of Pennsylvania. Now special elections don't have to be held on even number years but whenever a state has a statewide election, which the next one was in November 1991. Wofford defeated former governor Dick Thornburgh to keep that seat. But three years later he had to run again in 1994, which is when the seat normally cycles and he lost out to Rick Santorum.

So yes, Caroline Kennedy is going to have to raise enough money to run potentially 2-4 statewide races in the next 4 years. Not sure if New York has statewide races in 2009 - if they do her election to keep the seat might be held then.

[Tatiana]

3. Kennedy's have a national fundraising base. This is a plus in Caroline's favor.

I really, really like her and hope she becomes the NY Senator.