Before the right screams "fraud", be aware of this poll on Venezuelan referendum

[Paulaguyon]

A majority as of late January wanted to change the constitution in order breaking term limits, thus allowing Chavez to continue to run for president, according to Datanalisis (NOT a pro-Chavez pollster, and which found him losing in the poll previous to that one):

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-01-29-voa60.cfm

[Paulaguyon]

1. Here's another one, just in case, from IVAD

48% in favor of the changes, 40% against. Late January also:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/venezuelans_would_support_charter_amendments/

If anyone else is aware of other polls, please cite links with background information on the pollster.

[Peace Patriot]

2. Latest polls show 3% to 5% lead for "Yes" (lifting the term limit).

As Sunday's referendum vote approaches, all indications are that it enjoys the support of a clear, and increasing, majority of the Venezuelan electorate. This fact is borne out in recent polling data released in Venezuela by polling firm GIS XXI. According to the polling firm, 52.9% of voters currently support the effort to eliminate presidential term limits, with only 40% opposing. Moreover, when faced with the statement, "If the people support him, President Chávez has the right to run in the elections as many times as he likes," nearly 70% expressed agreement, and almost 75% characterize the President's leadership as either "very good" or "good." The more independent Venezuelan Data Analysis Institute (IVAD) has, surprisingly, given a more significant margin of victory to the "yes" vote, which it estimates at 54.6% versus 45.5% against (the margin separating the two having increased a full 3 points in recent weeks).

Even Datanálisis, a notoriously anti-Chavista polling firm whose director once insisted to the Los Angeles Times that Chávez needs to be assassinated, currently gives the referendum a margin of more than 3 points. While such a margin may seem unsurprising to anyone familiar with the reigning political atmosphere in Venezuela, it comes as somewhat of a surprise from Datanálisis, which just in December had the referendum losing by nearly 15 percentage points. And another opposition pollster, Hinterlaces, shows the election to be a dead heat, but does so only on the basis of misleading, urban-only polling, knowing full well that Chávez regularly outpolls the opposition by more than 20% in rural areas. (EMPHASIS ADDED)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/4209

[Peace Patriot]

3. For the uninformed, Venezuela has one of the best election systems in the world--

highly praised by all international monitoring groups, and transparent, open and aboveboard on its face: Venezuela uses electronic voting, but it is an OPEN SOURCE CODE system--anyone may review the code by which the votes are tabulated--and they handcount a whopping 55% of the votes as a check on machine fraud.

In the U.S., we now use 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by private, rightwing corporations, with virtually NO audit/recount controls. Half the systems in the country have a ZERO audit (no paper trail at all); the other half may have a ballot but only 1% of them get counted in an audit (not nearly enough in a 'TRADE SECRET' system). The contrast couldn't be more stark. Venezuela has a far, FAR more transparent voting system than we do.

Venezuela also has a completely independent election commission, overseeing all aspects of elections, and permits hundreds of international monitors, from the Carter Center, EU election monitoring groups, the NAACP and others from the U.S., to crawl all over Venezuela long before, during and after elections. All of these groups have had high praise for Venezuela's election system, and I've read that election monitors visit Venezuela with great enthusiasm, to learn and to see how it's done.