NJ-Gov: Christie Posts Big Primary Leads

[ccharles000]

Monmouth (PDF) (5/13-18, registered voters)

Chris Christie (R): 50
Steve Lonegan (R): 32
Rick Merkt (R): 2
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Quinnipiac (5/13-18, likely voters for primary, registered voters for general, 4/22 in parens)


Chris Christie (R): 56 (46)
Steve Lonegan (R): 33 (37)
Rick Merkt (R): 2 (2)
Undecided: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (38)
Chris Christie (R): 45 (45)
Undecided: 13 (14)
(MoE: ±2%)

After months of everyone fixating on Corzine vs. Christie, it seems like everyone has suddenly realized that there's a competitive GOP primary and that it's not a done deal that former US Attorney Chris Christie will win it against the race's conservative insurgent, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. In fact, Rasmussen last week gave only a 10-point lead to Christie, 39-29.

Now two more polls of the primary are out, and they give a little more breathing room to Christie; in fact, the only poll with primary trendlines, Quinnipiac, finds Christie strengthening his position from last month. Looks like the Democratic Governors' Association plan of helping to beat Christie in the primary may not pan out, but he may be still be softened up by Lonegan's attacks going into the general. (Or, the contrary view may be that it's helping Christie better define himself as an acceptable moderate... although hopefully yesterday's anti-stimulus comments can be used to debunk that.) At any rate, Corzine (like the economy, to which his fortunes seem inextricably linked) seems to have finally bottomed out, with his general election numbers exactly the same as last month and his approval numbers, though still terrible even by New Jersey standards, starting to tick back up (38/53, up from 37/54).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4989/njgov-christie-posts-big-primary-leads

[tabbycat31]

1. the guy is batshit crazy

All NJ DUers have to work this year to get Corzine re-elected.

He's not my favorite, but sure as hell beats the alternative.

[TheWraith]

2. Let's hope the Republicans kill each other in the primary. nt

[Pab Sungenis]

4. Remember, he is a Bush Federal Prosecutor

and the reason he wasn't fired in the 2005 purge is because he DID allow purely political investigations and indictments.

[AlCzervik]

3. Never trust anyone with 2 first names.

[Robbins]

5. NJ

Did you hear Christie said New Jersey should reject Stimulas funds? Corzine should make this his key ad.He wants to be like Perry,
Sanford,and Palin.

Corzine's troubles are because he Is not well liked and even Democrats consider the Democratic establishment In New Jersey
crooked.People who approve of obama are not pleased with Corzine.To win Corzine Is going to tie Christie to national Republicans.

If he can get a public endorsement from Obama and get Obama to campagin for him that would be helpful.

[tabbycat31]

6. I don't know about Obama

but Corzine is opening the campaign season with Biden.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. As I've said before, this is a good visual representation of the Republicans and New Jersey

[PBS Poll-435]

8. I have three words for you

Christine Todd Whitman



Now, she wasn't a crazy, but she was still a Republican elected in New Jersey.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. She was the last one, subsequently the GOP has lost every statewide election

But the polls seem to show them oh-so close and then on election day the Democrat always wins by comfortable margins. The GOP always thinks that Lucy is gonna let them kick that football just that one time.

[PBS Poll-435]

10. Put a moderate Republican against an unpopular incumbent Dem and things could get interesting

A Chris Shays-type Republican.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Oh it's always interesting because the polls show it much closer than it really is

Just look at 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and for a little while 2008 with Lautenberg. There's always polls that make it look like the Republicans can win. And they ALWAYS under-perform in New Jersey. It's really humorous to watch. Corzine will win with no problem...

[brentspeak]

14. Republicans have been elected or re-elected NJ governor 4 of the past 7 elections

That's not "under-performing".

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Again, if you start after 2000 their performance has been abysmal

With all of the scandals that have happened to Democrats they have had chance after chance after chance to win in New Jersey and they have blown every single election. The 2002 Senate Race, the 2004 Presidential Race, the 2005 Governor's Race, the 2006 Senate Race, and to a lesser extent the 2008 Senate Race were all supposed to be "competitive". The Republicans under-performed in every single one of them.

[JackBeck]

11. Last weekend we were postcarding for marriage equality in Basking Ridge and Christie showed up.

Someone who had previously signed on as a supporter earlier in the day walked up to him and inquired about where he stood on the issue of same-sex marriage. Obviously, he was opposed.

But right after he shared his stance, three people turned and walked away and rather loudly let him know how disgusted they were with his conservative disposition. It was pretty sweet to get to watch how it went down. :)

[SoCalDem]

15. 1, 3, 5, 7 out of 7 is one thing, BUT

1,2,3,4 and then losing 3 straight, is another:evilgrin:

[brentspeak]

13. Corzine got off to a real bad start

With the info regarding paying off his former mistress, among other things. Christie has been hovering around the radar for several years now. It's going to hard for Corzine to hold onto the job.