A Map to Victory: 10 Places Where This Election Will Be Won Or Lost

[displacedyankeedem]

1. THE I-4 CORRIDOR (CENTRAL FLORIDA):The I-4 corridor is the swingiest part of THE swing state, Florida. It runs from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach. South Florida (Miami/Ft.Lauderdale/Palm Beach) cancels out the Panhandle and the rest of the state. Thus, you win the I-4 corridor, you win FL and it's 32 electoral votes.

2. CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA: If you want to hit the electoral jackpot, hit Vegas. It's the single fastest growing city in the nation, and the folks who are moving in are primarily blue collar workers who work in Vegas's casinos, hotels, and other attractions. They're Democrats, and we need every single one of them to overcome the Republican advantage in the rest of the state.

3. THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON: Wisconsin is going to be the closest of the three upper Midwest states (MN, IA, and WI). The state may hinge on how well Rep. Tammy Baldwin can use her GOTV network at UW to pile up loads of votes here. Keep in mind that most of these folks are not being counted in the polls as they're college students. It's our ace in the hole in the Badger State.

4. INSIDE THE I-276/476 BELTWAY (PHILADELPHIA AND IT'S SUBURBS): Similar to FL's I-4 corridor. Philly proper is SOLID BLUE. The key is pulling in the suburban swing voters in Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and Chester counties that have been trending Democratic over the past few election cycles.

5. INSIDE THE I-271 BELTWAY (COLUMBUS,OH): We're going to pile up huge margins in Cleveland and Cuyahoga County. However, we're going to lose our shirts in the Greater Cincinnati area. We need to break a little better than even here to have a chance at Ohio.

6. THE 330/216 AREA CODES (AKRON-CANTON, OH): This is the swingy area of Ohio. In particular, if you win Stark County, chances are that you're going to win Ohio.

7. THE 724 AREA CODE (GREATER PITTSBURGH): The other big area that PA is won and lost in is in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh. I think that we can break a little better than even here.

8. EL PASO COUNTY, CO (COLORADO SPRINGS): You must be shaking your heads. The Springs are the hotbed of Colorado conservatism. But I think the key in Colorado will be limiting our losses in the Colorado Springs area while piling up huge margins in Denver and Boulder.

9. MARICOPIA COUNTY, AZ: If there's a chance in hell of winning AZ, it's by breaking even here and riding to victory on the strength of the Latino vote in Tucson.

10. THE I-70 CORRIDOR (ST. LOUIS TO KANSAS CITY): It's the whole state in one road. St. Louis on one side, Kansas City on the other, Mississippi in between. Pile up the margins on the coasts and pray that you don't lose an arm and a leg in the middle.

[AWhitneyBrown]

1. Great Post!

Very astute and well studied. You are a strategist, sir.
I will be spending a lot of time on the I-70 corrider myself, and don't forget that it's not all Mississippi in between, there's Columbia in there as well, with all the students. I'll be in Columbia, MO, Sept. 22, and will give a report. St. Louis on the 28, more dates to come.
(I've been learning far too much about MO since I've been volunteering there!)

[displacedyankeedem]

4. :)

I'm flattered. But also true, I forgot about Columbia.

[PittLib]

2. I'll be working on the greater Pittsburgh area ...

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Geographic correction

In 10, it is said that I-70 has St. Louis on one side, KC on the other, but Mississippi in between???? I don't call Columbia Mo or Jeff City as conservative as the Magnolia State-even Springfield, home town of John Ashcroft, has its share of liberals.

That being said, I'm working hard to get Kerry and Jan Judy (running for Congress) elected in Arkansas .

[pstokely]

16. Columbia is the only liberal place on I70 East of Independence & west of

St Louis county, St. Charles and Eastern Jackson county are repuke

[AWhitneyBrown]

5. I've sent this out to some of my friends who are also doing GOTV

And a couple have wondered how you compiled this. It's so great, that I also forgot to ask how you are so astute about these things. If you don't wish to reply here, you can e-mail me. I'd like to hear more if you have the time. [e-mail]

[displacedyankeedem]

6. Umm, you'd laugh if you knew

I'm barely a sophomore at college. I've taken only one American Political Science class ever. But during HS I did nothing but research this stuff (rest of school was umm, boring). It's just a compilation of bits and pieces that I've put together over the years. The Pennsylvania stuff I know because I used to live there. I suggest reading the "Emerging Democratic Majority" if you haven't, there's lots of good stuff there.

That said, there are two others I left out (had to make it a nice round number like 10, so here's a few more).

11. THE 571/703 AREA CODES (NORTHERN VA): Virginia (like Colorado) continues to show that it isn't willing to rule out voting for a Democrat for the first time in living memory. If we're to win, we have to pile up votes in Northern VA to be able to ride out the massacre in places like Virginia Beach and Lynchburg (Falwell and Robertson's fiefs).

12. THE I-85 CORRIDOR (RALEIGH TO CHARLOTTE, NC): There's a ghost of a chance that we can win in NC with Edwards on the ticket. The RDU area is generally a Democratic stronghold, and we should be able to break about even in Charlotte's Mecklinburg County. However, the key here is to pick up the support from the textile workers who have been laid off in between the two in places like Concord. They voted for W last time, but your job being outsourced has a way of cahnging your politics...............

[Rockholm]

12. Good Work, SCDem! One thing I noticed...

I am a junkie at www.Fundrace.org

Take a look at the national map. It is interesting the amount of blue in some conservative areas. The money trail correlates to your findings.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Yes. The DC suburbs in Virginia could swing it for us.

Also Richmond city.

[displacedyankeedem]

15. Good Point

How are the military families in places like Norfolk and Newport News looking (any sentiment against the war)?

[Big Al from WI]

7. 3B: Southwest Wisconsin (Grant, Crawford, Richland Counties)

One of the few rural areas in the entire US that went for Gore in 2000. Pull off a repeat and that will also be a huge help towards winning Wisconsin, because there should be more turnout in the urban areas (Madison, Milwaukee) already.

[Vincardog]

8. Don't forget New Mexico We are tuning them out!

[faithnotgreed]

10. oh no! i sure hope you mean turning them out!!

hehe

[featherman]

9. This is the nuts and bolts of campaigns

Very good info. I actually am not worried much about Oregon but did find something interesting in my research regarding Coos County on the southern coast. Coos Bay/Marshfield is it's small city - mill town/seaport. Had voted DEM every election since 1928 except for the two Reagan campaigns. Voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Inexplicibly went from going +6% for Clinton in 1996 to going for Bush by 14% in 2000. Although this is a smallish county this massive shift actually changed the Oregon race from a close 1.5% theoretical margin for Gore to the squeaker we all remember (Gore by less than .5)
This is just another example of an election "hotspot" that can have far reaching effect.
Thanks for your good work SC

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Boulder, Denver

we will take Colorado.

[roseBudd]

13. I think University of Cincinnati is going to help a lot in Cincinnati

ACT/Young Voter Alliance/VoteMob are in Cincinnati and very active.

I personally canvass low income urban people everyday and while they may not be considered likley voters because they have not voted previously we have to consider Hamilton County had 60,000 new voter registrations.

Cincinnati people contcat me via my inbox. I got lots of ideas and good technique.

[JohnKleeb]

17. I was in area 4 yesterday

[salin]

18. Michigan... the Lansing/Ann Arbor/Detriot

triangle. I believe Michigan is leaning... but it is far from certain. A lot of GOP growth under the previous republican governor... especially west and north. Get good turnout from the union, urban, cosmopolitan and university populations... strengthens the collection of Michigan electoral votes.

[NMDemDist2]

19. i'm working Maricopa Co AZ 3 times a week

we're working hard here in AZ