"Strong argument for cautious optimism" - an email I got today

[WilliamPitt]

I've been cc:d on a long-running debate between bloggers on the election prospects for November. This one stands out.

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If Ms. ******* is correct, then Kerry wins Washington in a landslide.
Frankly, Kerry can't lose unless there is either: 1) a huge terror
attack, 2) Osama is caught days before the election, or, 3) there is
widespread voter intimidation, as outlined in this article:

http://www.veteransforcommonsense.org/NewsArticle.cfm?ID=2023

Let's look at Ms. *******'s comments:

The partisan vote distribution in Washington State in 9/04 was:
Dem: 58.5 %
GOP: 40.4 %
Ind: 1.1 %

The latest poll on 9/13/04 was:
Kerry: 51 %
Bush: 44 %
Nader: 2 %

In 11/00, the vote tally was:
Gore: 52.2 %
Bush: 44.6 %
Nader: 4.1 %

Because Nader went down, then Kerry should get nearly all of Nader's
lost voters. If there is an undersampling of Dems and an
oversampling of GOP, then Kerry should expect a 10 percent to 15
percent margin of victory in Washington.

This undersampling of Dems could apply to the entire nation: The U.S.
election could be like Spain, where the polling significantly
underestimated turnout among the center and left. The polls,
misinterpreted by FOX news and news outlets, predicted a close
conservative victory based on low turnout that was heavy with
conservatives. When voter turnout went up by as much as 33 percent
in some areas, the people won and Spain's troops were yanked from the
bloody war in Iraq.

Here's what people really need to know. There are three pre-election
indicators to look at, starting 10/4/04, to see how Kerry is doing.
These criteria are critical for battleground states, especially in
counties or cities that are already seen as strong Democratic.

1. If voter registration is up, that's great. If it is flat or down,
there's trouble.

2. If absentee ballot requests are up, that's great. This means
turnout is up and people may have concerns about electronic voting.

3. If early voting went up (this is allowed in some states), that's great, too.

In the closing days, the keys are registration, turnout, and counting
ALL our votes.

There are six states that are true election day indicators for Kerry.
If Kerry wins electoral votes in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
early, then things look good for Kerry. And if Kerry also wins
upsets in Virginia, Tennessee, and West Virginia, then Kerry wins the
election quickly.

However, if Bush wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio early, then
Kerry will have a tough time. If Bush wins all six states plus other
battleground states, then look for a long brutal "Night of the Long
Knives," as another despotic fascist grabs power. And when I
reference June 29, 1934, I really mean it. There could be very
significant civil unrest and/or government oppression if Bush steals
the election again.

If Bush loses, look for a string of pardons and laws passed in the
last two months of the Bush dictatorship "allowing" the crimes he
ordered, including the murders of tens of thousands of Iraqi
civilians and the killings of more than 1,000 U.S. soldiers. Here's
an example of how Hitler "cleared" himself for responsibility for the
slaughter in 1934, Hitler's pre-emptive self-defense:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Regarding_Measures_of_State_Self-Defense

Hope this helps.

[seabeyond]

1. bush could win with huge terror attack. second one on his

watch
catching obl an obvious october surprise. that he would hold off getting man for a vote after deaths of thousands


why would those two cause a bush vote. both those should create greater landslide for kerry. this is the warped thinking of people

[TA]

2. I was part of the 4.1% Nader vote in Wash State in 2000

Ain't going to happen again. Volunteered last week at the Kerry campaign headquarters to drive folks to the voting booth on Nov 2nd. Also I've talked to many people who didn't vote in 2000 and are scared to death that Bush will be reelected. I told them if we all do our part Kerry WILL be our next President.

[tedoll78]

3. Can you clarify something for me?

The partisan vote distribution in Washington State in 9/04 was:
Dem: 58.5 %
GOP: 40.4 %
Ind: 1.1 %

The latest poll on 9/13/04 was:
Kerry: 51 %
Bush: 44 %
Nader: 2 %

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What is this "partisan vote distribution" you write of? Was there an election in Washington this month? (basically.. where did that first set of numbers come from..?)

If they're underestimating Democrats by 7%, WOW!

Thanks!